The NCAA Tournament is coming to a close after three grueling weekends of play. The 64 team field has been trimmed to just two and the cream has risen from the crop. Yes, plenty of madness occurred along the way but I sincerely believe that the four best teams were crowned from each region and the two best are the ones that remain. There were many story lines that emerged during the tournament but the one that easily stands out among the rest is the eventual seeding of the teams. Nobody should ever expect the committee to be perfect (how could they be?) but the seeding in this tournament and most importantly the grouping of the teams in the four regions was questionable at best. This was one of the main issues to start out with as many spoke out on how some teams were seeded unfairly and it has only become more apparent as the tournament has progressed. There were games in the round of 32 and Sweet 16 that were clearly worthy of an Elite Eight type match up or better. Likewise, there were Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games that looked a lot more like round of 32 match ups. The result of this was a handful of quality teams bowing out of the dance early due to poor placement. Notable victims include Notre Dame (L vs West Virgina in round of 32), Wichita State (L vs Kentucky in round of 32), Iowa State (L vs Purdue in round of 32), Dayton (L vs Wichita State in round of 614), and SMU who deserved at least a 5 seed (L vs USC in round of 64). Then, there were the two 3 seeds that were bound to fall flat on their faces in Baylor and Florida State. Those teams featured top tier players on their rosters but were simply perfect examples of poorly engineered teams. Not only that, but they were also built to bully teams in the regular season with their physical size but fall short in tournament play with below average team chemistry. The teams that made it out of their regions and into the Final Four were well rounded teams who featured multiple players who could score and defend. That is the downfall of many branded squads out there which is either lack of quality depth or the tendency to be one dimensional more times than not. It actually shouldn’t be incredibly surprising to see that the Final Four ended up like this. This result was a pure testament to what this season has been all along. There really weren’t too many overly dominant teams this season so this tournament looked as open as it has ever looked. South Carolina was the biggest surprise of this tournament but they rang in at seventh overall in terms of team defensive efficiency and also has one of the nation’s leading scorers in Sindarius Thornwell. Oregon was another surprise as they reached the Final Four as a three seed over the likes of Kansas and Louisville without one of their big men and leading shot blocker. The Ducks were one of the best shot blocking teams in the nation and had a team full of players who can score from anywhere. North Carolina was expected to be back in the Final Four but they didn’t get there by way of their name alone. They were an above average defensive team who shares the ball well without turning it over and have a wealth of players who can handle the ball as well as they can score it. The Tar Heels have also retained their greatness on the glass as they’ve cemented themselves as the nation’s best in total rebounds per game. Though more people expected Gonzaga to make it to the Final Four than South Carolina or Oregon, they were still doubted by many. This doubt was merited as Gonzaga has consistently made the tournament after promising regular seasons but have always managed to find themselves eliminated far too soon. What those doubters didn’t know was that this Gonzaga team is much different than the ones in the past. This souped up Bulldogs team is filled with talent from head to toe as they’ve added upper echelon players and have one of their best players returned from an injury in the previous season. The Bulldogs are the nation’s best in terms of defensive efficiency, fifth best in offensive efficiency, and sixth best in total rebounds per game. Although the earlier stages of the tournament were a bit shaky, the final product turned out exactly as it should. North Carolina and Gonzaga were two of the most dominant teams in college basketball this season so it was only right that they went head to head in the finale. These are also two of the more balanced teams out there who don’t lack depth at any position. Gonzaga and UNC are actually very similar. They’re each built on depth and size which already puts them above many other teams. They also add solid guard play and great head coaches which puts them on the next level. This championship will surely be an exciting one to watch.
Gonzaga
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have finally exceeded expectations as they not only made the Final Four but have reached the championship game. Entering the tournament as the lowest one seed, many people were quick to cross them off their brackets as the Bulldogs weren’t ‘battle tested’. Though Gonzaga is in the championship game, an argument could be made that they are still not battle tested. Teams that they faced on the way to the championship game include South Dakota State, Northwestern, West Virginia, Xavier, and South Carolina. I’m sure any team would jump at the opportunity to take that path to the championship game. You still can’t really knock those teams too much though as West Virginia probably would have been in my Final Four if they were in another region and Xavier had to go through Maryland, Florida State, and Arizona to get to Gonzaga. South Carolina was definitely not a walk in the park either. The popular belief that Gonzaga isn’t the real deal and hasn’t played anyone yet has fueled their run in this tournament. The further they go, the more people deny who they are. The Bulldogs have been one of the most (if not the most) dominant teams in college basketball this season. They were undefeated for practically the entire season until BYU ended their streak. Their one loss season wasn’t a fraud as they’ve translated it into some solid tournament play. Their balanced style of play mixed with stifling defensive efficiency has contributed to their success. Nigel Williams-Goss is the leading scorer for the Bulldogs. He was a Wooden Award All-American and a Wooden Award finalist as well as being a McDonald’s All-American out of high school. He also leads the team in assists and steals. Williams-Goss transferred to Gonzaga from Washington after his sophomore year and immediately made an impact as he took center stage. However, big man Przemek Karnowski is where all of the real attention goes on this team. He is a 7’1″ 300 pound center. Last season, Karnowski suffered a season ending injury that left a huge gap in the team’s interior. Fortunately, the team had Domantis Sabonis to fill in that gap but imagine how far that Gonzaga team could have went with both of them on the inside. Karnowski is a tremendous passer as a center and has great vision. His sheer size and surprisingly good footwork/skill draws plenty of attention from defenders. He quickly identifies when the double teams come and is able to dish it to the open man for an easy bucket. Freshman forward Zach Collins is an impact player for the Bulldogs. With Williams-Goss and Karnowski taking the spotlight, Collins is the unsung hero on this team. For being 7’0″ tall he is incredibly athletic and has a huge wingspan. He’s a tremendous shot blocker as he averages almost two a game and has great skill for a freshman. Between Williams-Goss and Karnowski, the offense can be tailored to any type of defense and any style of game play. What’s even more interesting is that the Bulldogs almost play better fast than they do slow. You would think that they would thrive in the half court scheme as they play great defense and can slow things down. That’s not entirely the case. Gonzaga can also get out on the break in a hurry and beat defenses with their quick guards and are not afraid to do so in order to build a big lead. Jordan Mathews and Josh Perkins make up the rest of the back court. They are great facilitators and play good defense. Good luck trying to get back in the game as their #1 defense can put the clamps down on the other end.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels have made it back to the championship after their tough loss at the buzzer to Villanova in 2016. The team returned many of their core players this season as Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson were their main departures. North Carolina picked up where it left off by claiming the ACC regular season title and leading the nation in rebounds where they were even better this season than last. Leading the team in assists and steals, Joel Berry II has been a leader on this team. His experience as the point guard and primary ball handler has been instrumental in the team’s success. However, he’s been banged up this season and in the tournament with injuries. His recent ankle injury has held him back a bit but he still continues to play. The team is going to need him in order to bring home the title. Justin Jackson has been absolutely incredible this season. He is the team’s leading scorer by far and won the ACC player of the year award. He has incredibly shooting and ball handling ability at 6’8″. Jackson is a huge part of this UNC strike and will be an important player in the championship game. North Carolina’s big man and best player, Kennedy Meeks, had been an absolute monster. That includes the regular season and in the tournament. He is a massive player at 6’10” 260 pounds and is incredibly skilled. Now in his senior season, he has completely rounded out his skill set. Meeks is a rebounding machine and is the key to the Heels’ top rebounding rating. He has had over ten rebounds in just about every game in their tournament run. Most recently, he had 17 against Kentucky and 14 against Oregon. Not to mention the 25 points he put up in the Final Four with those 14 rebounds including the game sealing rebound in the final seconds. Meeks will be a major factor in this championship game as he has turned into the key cog in how the Heels operate offensively, defensively, and on the glass. A player to look out for on UNC is guard/forward Theo Pinson. He has been terrific in the Heels’ tournament run as he’s taken a lot of the weight off Joel Berry’s shoulders. Pinson has been a solid ball handler and has made huge plays when the team needed it most. He is not afraid to step up when his team is in a funk and he is exactly who the team will fall back on. North Carolina’s depth and dominance on the glass is what has gotten them this far so don’t expect much to change in the championship game.
Stat Comparison
Gonzaga: 83 points per game. 40 rebounds per game. 15 assists per game. 7 steals per game. 5 blocks per game. 11 turnovers per game. 51% field goal percentage. 72% free throw percentage. 38% three point percentage.
North Carolina: 85 points per game. 44 rebounds per game. 18 assists per game. 7 steals per game. 3 blocks per game. 12 turnovers per game. 47% field goal percentage. 70% free throw percentage. 36% three point percentage.
National Rankings
Offensive efficiency: Gonzaga 5th, UNC 10th
Defensive efficiency: Gonzaga 1st, UNC 42nd
Assist/Turnover ratio: Gonzaga 23rd, UNC 7th
Total rebounds per game: Gonzaga 6th, UNC 1st
Prediction
This was easily the biggest struggle that I had when making picks on my bracket before the tournament began. I originally had Gonzaga beating UNC in the championship game in my bracket, but for some reason I may not have locked it in or it must have changed sometime during the tournament because now it displays that I have Gonzaga beating Kansas. I thought for sure I had locked in UNC but maybe I decided to roll with Kansas as the runner-up because Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson, and Devonte’ Graham made up my favorite back court in college hoops. Oregon’s Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey have been a favorite of mine as well though so I didn’t mind seeing them go off against Kansas in the Elite Eight. Regardless, I do have Gonzaga winning the championship in my bracket so I’m going to continue to back them in the title game. The Bulldogs are an extremely well rounded team who have a ton of depth and a multitude of players who can score while also playing tremendous defense. Gonzaga wins with the stats on paper and with their play on the court. They have used their size advantage to roll over physically inferior teams with ease but their superior skill in their big men and guards is what is really going to give them the advantage over UNC. The Bulldogs’ high-low game is something to marvel at. Their big men pass the ball extremely well and have great vision. They also do a good job attracting defenders to the paint and kicking it out to the shooters. What I think is going to be the real factor that puts Gonzaga on top is their guard play. The Bulldogs have more quality depth at the guard spot and on the exterior than the Heels. Add in that UNC’s star point guard/leading scorer Joel Berry II is dealing with some serious ankle problems and that gives the Bulldogs the advantage twofold. Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Mathews, and Josh Perkins make up one dangerous trio of guards. The focus of this game seems to be on the big men inside with North Carolina’s Meeks and Gonzaga’s Karnowski going at it but the guards will be the real turning point as the big men of both sides cancel each other out. UNC is actually not nearly as good on defense as people think they are as evidenced by being 42nd in the nation. Their rebounding is great and everything but it might be a bit misleading. The team has struggled with giving up points as they gave up 80 points to Butler, 73 to Kentucky, and 76 to Oregon. Given those teams can all score pretty well, it’s still quite telling. Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams-Goss is going to be the X-Factor in this game. He has been turnover prone and has had rough stretches in this tournament which has made the team struggle. If he plays well in this game then Gonzaga should be able to walk away with the title. Look out for freshman forward Zach Collins to turn heads in this game as well. He is one of Gonzaga’s secret weapons. Collins is a legit seven footer who has better skills than many other big men out there. He had a double-double against South Carolina in the Final Four and figures to put in some solid minutes against UNC. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are my pick to win the NCAA Championship.
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