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Ohio State football: 3 reasons the Buckeyes will beat Penn State

The Ohio State Buckeyes return home to defend their spot at the top of the Big Ten as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The series between the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions has been a competitive one for quite some time. It’s been a known reality that the keys to the Big Ten runs through the Buckeyes. This reality hasn’t been realized more by any other team than the Nittany Lions.

This has brought much envy from the Nittany Lions over the years but none come close to the result of the 2016 season. The Buckeyes traveled to Penn State as a sizable road favorite over the home team. The Nittany Lions would end up winning that match up which marked their first win over the Buckeyes since 2011.

Both teams would end up winning out through the rest of the regular season. With the Nittany Lions already surpassing the gate keeping Buckeyes, there was nothing left stopping them from winning the rest of their games.

All the Nittany Lions had to do was win out and they’d be in the Big Ten Championship as they had the tie breaker over the Buckeyes due to both teams having one loss in the conference. The Nittany Lions had lost two games which included a 39 point loss to Michigan and a three point loss to Pittsburgh. The Nittany Lions went on to win the Big Ten Championship over the Wisconsin Badgers.

As it is the Buckeyes that are being discussed here, there was still hope for them to make the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes had a quality road win over the fighting Baker Mayfields in Oklahoma where the Buckeyes won convincingly. They also had a quality road win over Wisconsin in prime time and a win over Michigan. Remember that Michigan had beaten the Nittany Lions by 39 points earlier that season.

The Nittany Lions had the right to be upset that they’d won the conference championship and didn’t make the College Football Playoff but the Buckeyes’ resume could not be ignored. However, the Buckeyes making the College Football Playoff would ultimately be their biggest downfall. The Buckeyes’ glaring struggles offensively and defensively were brutally clear when they took the field against the Deshaun Watson led Clemson Tigers.

The Buckeyes would end up losing 31-0 to the Tigers in one of the more embarrassing games in history. It was no surprise that the Buckeyes were given the cold shoulder when playoff selection time came around and the Buckeyes were up for discussion. This season figures to be different though considering the Buckeyes’ recent model of consistency.

This season brings a similar situation. The Nittany Lions are entering this match up with just a single loss in the Big Ten. This means if the Nittany Lions were to get a win over the Buckeyes then they would make the Big Ten Championship over the Buckeyes. Who’s to say what will happen to the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes if they were to lose this late in the season and not have a stake in the conference championship.

The Nittany Lions would love nothing more than to take everything the Buckeyes have done and ruin it on the Buckeyes’ home field. They’re the last team in the Big Ten who can keep the Buckeyes out of the postseason so there’s little doubt that they’ll give it their best shot.

PISCATAWAY, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 16: Jordan Fuller #4 and Tuf Borland #32 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrate a turnover in the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 16, 2019 in Piscataway, New Jersey.The Ohio State Buckeyes defeated the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 56-21. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

3. The Buckeyes’ defense will not allow the Nittany Lions to get any traction

The Buckeyes have been remarkable on defense all season. There was much speculation on what exactly the identity would be for this unit… and that identity is still unknown. That’s because this is one of the most well rounded Buckeye defenses in history. They rank within the top six in rushing defense and have the top passing defense in the nation.

This number one Buckeye defense will be tasked to take down the Nittany Lions who rank just 65th in total offense. Their offense is led by sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford. He’s had a productive season up to this point by throwing for 2,450 yards which lands him at second in the Big Ten in total passing yards. Clifford has also totaled 22 passing touchdowns which is good for second in the Big Ten behind Fields’ 31. His biggest flaw would be his interceptions in which he’s thrown six.

Clifford has some ability to scramble as well. He’s ran for 374 yards and five touchdowns. For some perspective, this is just three yards short of Fields’ rushing total. Surprisingly enough, Cliffords’ longest run of 58 yards is higher than that of Justin Fields. The Nittany Lions have yet another new name starting at running back this season. In replacement of former starter Miles Sanders, sophomore Journey Brown has stepped up in his place.

Brown has averaged six yards per carry and has eight total touchdowns. Noah Cain, Devyn Ford, and Ricky Slade provide some depth in their rushing attack as well. The Nittany Lions have heavily leaned on a familiar name for production on offense. Junior receiver KJ Hamler is back with the Nittany Lions this season and has produced nearly 800 yards receiving with eight touchdowns.

The Nittany Lions remain relatively limited on offense this season as they’ve lost some of their biggest names from past teams. They still retain head coach James Franklin but other than that their team is hardly recognizable. Overall, the Nittany Lions are a solid team but they don’t have one player who poses a major threat. Expect the Buckeyes to be just fine defending the Nittany Lions.

PISCATAWAY, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 16: Binjimen Victor #9 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates his touchdown with teammate K.J. Hill #14 in the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 16, 2019 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

2. The Nittany Lions have declined and the Buckeyes have gotten better

The Nittany Lions usually field a team with some above average talent every season but that seems to have changed. They’ve lost quite a bit of talent over the years to the NFL which most recently included the likes of Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin, and Trace McSorley.

Unlike the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions don’t have the luxury of having an extremely talented player be replaced by one that might be even better every season. In what was originally deemed to be a rebuilding type season for the Buckeyes, they’ve turned out to be one of the best teams in the nation. Regardless of what the records may say, the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions are going in two different directions.

The improvement in passing defense is a massive leap from where the Buckeyes were last season. The Buckeyes were getting torched by just about any quarterback. Their weakness against the pass reached its breaking point in their loss at Purdue last season.

Purdue put up 378 yards through the air and three touchdowns. Things weren’t any better on the ground though as their running back D.J. Knox went off for 128 yards and three touchdowns. Many of the same defensive players that were starting on that team are back with the Buckeyes but a full year of experience has made one heck of a difference.

One of the biggest differences has been the rise of Chase Young. He returns from his suspension just in time to spearhead the Buckeyes’ potent defense once again. Young presents such a massive mismatch versus every opponent that it allows the rest of the defense to run free.

Young had a huge breakout game last season in this match up where he had two sacks and three tackles for loss. One of those tackles for loss was a game changing play in the fourth quarter to seal the game when he shot through the line and immediately made the tackle on fourth down.

Even after missing two full games, Young is just one sack behind the nation’s leader. Senior cornerback Damon Arnette will also be back for the Buckeyes this week. He sat out last week after dressing and nearly playing before being ruled out. Three players that remain in question are defensive end Jonathon Cooper, receiver Austin Mack, and linebacker Baron Browning. The Buckeyes are fortunate to not have any major team altering injuries this late in the season.

At any rate, the Nittany Lions have benefited from a soft schedule. The fact that they’re not undefeated up to this point is disappointing as it is but it’s only half of the story. They have played close games in four out of their last five weeks. The Nittany Lions’ offense was much better last season as it was 37th as compared to 65th this season. Their defense was also just as good last season as it is this time around as they’ve moved up just three spots to 25th.

The Nittany Lions’ toughest games have come against Minnesota and Michigan in which they lost against Minnesota just two weeks ago and only beat Michigan by a touchdown before that. Last week, they nearly lost a home game to Indiana. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes beat Indiana by 41 points in their house. Expect the Buckeyes to remain in a class of their own as they pull away from the Nittany Lions.

PISCATAWAY, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 16: Justin Fields #1 of the Ohio State Buckeyes passes the ball in the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 16, 2019 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

1. The Buckeyes’ offense will remain unfazed as they roll through the Nittany Lions

As noted, the Nittany Lions haven’t improved much on defense. Their defense is made up of mostly seniors which in theory should come to their benefit but there isn’t too many numbers to back that up. They’ve improved just three spots in the total defense category so far.

This lack of improvement combined with the fact that many of their defensive starters are seniors spells trouble for the Nittany Lions. This means that their unit doesn’t have much of a ceiling. The Buckeyes have experience against and beat many of those defensive players from last season. The weaker Buckeyes’ defensive had a practice run against the Nittany Lions’ defense in their house last season so just imagine what the Buckeyes will do against them in Columbus.

J.K. Dobbins had a relatively inefficient game in the previous match up. He’ll look to improve upon that but that will come against a much improved Nittany Lions rushing defense. The one thing the Nittany Lions does well is defend the run. Their rushing defense is fourth best in the nation. Meanwhile, their passing defense has suffered mightily as they’re just 90th in the nation in that category.

The Nittany Lions’ renaissance in run defense is short winded though considering their weak schedule. The best rushing offense they’ve seen is Minnesota who they just lost to two weeks ago. They rank just 37th in the nation in rushing offense. Given, they did hold Minnesota to three yards per carry as a team and only six of the 31 points given up was from a single rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have the third best rushing attack in the nation.

Now to focus on the Nittany Lions’ grave weakness which is their passing defense. They just gave up 339 yards and three touchdowns through the air to Minnesota last weekend. That includes two Minnesota receivers going over 100 yards with one of them having over 200 yards. If there was a game for Justin Fields to pad some stats for the Heisman race to make up for all of the halves he sat out due to blowing teams out, this game would be it.

Fields should absolutely show out versus this pathetic Nittany Lions passing defense. This is a defense that just got taken to school by Minnesota who is just 39th in the nation in passing offense even after last week’s huge performance. Expect the Buckeyes’ offense to continue rolling this week against the Nittany Lions.

If you liked this article and would like to read more similar this one, please visit Alec’s Ohio Sports Blog at alecdhartman.wordpress.com. If you would like to be notified when new articles are posted, go to alecdhartman.wordpress.com and click the follow button in the lower right hand corner.

Featured Image Credit: PISCATAWAY, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 16: Luke Farrell #89 and Jeremy Ruckert #88 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrate a touchdown in the second half of their game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 16, 2019 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

The Buckeyes Can Still Make the College Football Playoff

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now a two-loss team but that won’t sink their playoff chances completely.

What an emotional roller coaster it was for the Buckeyes last week. The Bucks were fresh off an incredible comeback win over #2 Penn State in front of the fans at Ohio Stadium. J.T. Barrett had returned to the Heisman conversation for the first time in a long time after playing a key role in the Bucks’ victory. To top it off, the rest of the regular season schedule appeared to be gravy as Michigan State was the only ranked team standing in their way. The Bucks looked to have every bit of what a championship team required.

All of this took a turn for the worst rather quickly once game day came back around. The Bucks lost by thirty points in Iowa City to an unranked Iowa Hawkeyes team. This effectively snapped the Bucks’ hot streak and was possibly one of the most stunning Buckeyes losses in quite some time. The Bucks had reached their peak only to fall off a cliff.

The Hawkeyes became the beneficiary to the Bucks’ hangover. Many people, including myself, had become so entangled in the Bucks’ recent successes that getting excited to play Iowa was almost a challenge. However, it did seem like the message was getting across clearly all week that the Hawkeyes were still going to be a tough opponent especially on their home field.

Even with the subtle warnings, it was clear as day that the Bucks’ minds were not in the game from the second the game started. Barrett throwing a pick-six on the very first play was an indicator of this but it also seemed like it could have been just the wake up call they needed. The Bucks drove down the field and scored on the following drive but trouble would soon follow on the other side of the ball. The defense proceeded to struggle badly as they weren’t the slightest bit awake either. The Bucks only managed one touchdown after halftime.

Barrett’s turnovers combined with sluggish defense made it obvious that the Bucks had not adequately prepared for this game schematically as much as emotionally. The Hawkeyes’ tight end, Noah Fant, has been one of the team’s best receiving options yet the Bucks left him unattended for most of the game.

With all of that being said, the Hawkeyes’ offense was built like the kryponite for the Bucks’ defense. The Bucks have struggled to cover good receiving tight ends and even fullbacks for that matter. The linebackers have gotten lost in coverage more times than not.

Dating back to the Bucks’ first loss, the Bucks let up seven receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown to the Oklahoma Sooners‘ fullback. Penn State took advantage of some of these match ups with featured tight end Mike Gesicki reeling in six catches for 57 yards. Not only did Fant do work against the linebackers in coverage, freshman tight end T.J. Hockenson racked up the numbers as well with his 71 yards and two touchdowns.

This was just an extremely disappointing performance as the Bucks were expected to continue to take care of business after gaining second wind following a disappointing start to the season. Now, the Bucks are tasked with rebounding from not their first but their second loss in the regular season. This will be the first time the Bucks have lost twice in a regular season since 2011.

In the Bucks’ defense, the Hawkeyes played a very good game on both sides of the ball and looked like a great team. Yes, the Bucks turned the ball over and looked very inept all game but that shouldn’t take away from how good the Hawkeyes actually looked. It’s not every day where the Bucks lose by thirty unless it is to a team of true quality. It would be ideal to see the Hawkeyes continue their solid play to prove that the Bucks’ loss wasn’t as bad as it’s being perceived.

The Big Ten will be in the conversation once playoff selection day arrives.

Moving on from that epic loss to Iowa… there are still some things that the Bucks can be optimistic about. The Bucks are still more than capable of capturing their first Big Ten title since 2014. In fact, Urban Meyer has only one Big Ten title in his tenure as head coach with the Bucks.

Thankfully, this was only the Bucks’ first conference loss. This means that the Bucks are still in the driver’s seat in representing the Big Ten East division in the conference championship. At least the Bucks get to avoid the conundrum of last season which was taking a loss in about the same time period to Penn State in which the Nittany Lions controlled their destiny to the championship with the win.

As for what a Big Ten title means in the grand scheme of things, it still means quite a bit. I find it incredibly hard to believe that all of a sudden the champion of the Big Ten conference will be completely disregarded when it’s all said and done. After all, the Big Ten has been in every College Football Playoff since it began in 2014. This is also a reminder that it was the Buckeyes who won the first ever College Football Playoff championship.

The Big Ten was one of the most highly regarded conferences in college football to begin this season and still is up to this point. There are six teams from the Big Ten who rank in the top 25 in the current College Football Playoff rankings which is more than ANY other conference.

There is something to be said about the strength of the Big Ten conference when there are several teams beating up on each other. This speaks to the quality of all of the teams in the conference as a whole. Everyone will begin to realize the losses that each of the top Big Ten teams are sustaining are actually from quality opponents.

Now, all of a sudden the SEC comes out of nowhere and are being considered heavy favorites to have two teams represent their conference in the playoff. Georgia won at Notre Dame by one point in their second game of the season and have played basically nobody after that. Oh yeah, they did beat a then #18 Mississippi State team pretty bad but nobody is sure why they were ranked so high in the first place. SEC teams do seem to get sprinkled into the top 25 here and there for whatever reason so that probably explains it.

From there, Georgia has ridden Notre Dame’s coattails to the top. The Irish have a decent resume at first glance but it’s actually not as glamorous as it looks. Besting a questionable USC team and then topping NC State who have benefited from the ACC conference being shaky at best this season has vaulted Notre Dame into the top four just in time for the first College Football Playoff selection show… how convenient?

Now for Alabama… to keep it simple, the Crimson Tide have taken advantage of an extremely soft schedule to its full extent. Yes, they beat #3 Florida State to begin the season (albeit by injuring their quarterback in the process) and have stayed undefeated to maintain their top tier ranking.

However, Florida State has clearly had multiple more issues than just their quarterback which has led them to a 3-5 record even in a lighter-than-usual ACC. The Crimson Tide have struggled a bit with the better parts of the garbage SEC conference by beating a 5-4 Texas A&M team by a mere eight points and only beating unranked LSU by 14 at home. Alabama has proven consistent quality play in the postseason over the years so their position in the top four is dignified… at least until they take a loss.

The Buckeyes still have a realistic chance of making the playoffs but they will need some help.

One big thing that people get stuck on is recency bias. Believe it or not, there are still three more games left in the regular season for every team which is plenty of time for things to shake up.

In fact, a lot of teams actually play their strongest opponents or rivals at the end of the season. Those three remaining games is not even including the conference championships that all of the top teams will play in which is sure to cause even more drama.

Nowadays, opinions change on a dime. Everyone is so concentrated on the present that the past loses almost all of its value. The same is such in college football. The Buckeyes’ incomprehensible loss at Iowa looks absolutely horrible right now which has everyone counting them out in every way possible.

I would like to challenge everyone to wait until after this upcoming weekend to see how they feel about the Buckeyes’ playoff chances. After that, see how their playoff chances feel in the following week and so on. As long as the Bucks keep winning, it can only get better from here.

In a world where ‘what have you done for me lately’ is the motto, the Bucks have every opportunity to entertain when the time is right while other teams fall over themselves at the last minute. There is plenty of time and the Bucks will surely make the most of it.

Here are some scenarios for how the Buckeyes can make it into the College Football Playoff:

As of right now, the College Football Playoff committee has entrenched Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Clemson as the playoff teams. In the five and six spots are Oklahoma and TCU from the Big 12.

Notre Dame must lose another game

There are several other conferences who are feeling the same way as the Irish are hogging a spot that could be taken by a team with a conference championship. The Irish are Independents so they do not have a conference championship.

This means all the Irish have to do is win-out their regular season and they’ll more than likely stay in the playoff picture. The committee will take a Big Ten conference champion over a two-loss Notre Dame team without a conference championship, especially if their second loss comes this late. With the way the Big Ten is being viewed right now, a freed up spot in the top four is exactly what the Buckeyes need.

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk as they play an undefeated Miami FL team on the road and a strong Stanford team on the road that boasts one of the best players in the country in Bryce Love:

Notre Dame @ #7 Miami FL

Notre Dame vs Navy

Notre Dame @ Stanford

The SEC cannot have two teams represented in the playoffs

The Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide are currently taking up two spots in the top four. This is not a good sign for the Big Ten this late in the season as they are taking up a spot that the Big Ten would otherwise fill.

The good news is that there are a few ways that one of these two SEC teams will get kicked out by selection day. Alabama actually has a slightly tougher path to the playoffs in this situation.

Georgia and Alabama have to play two of their last three games on the road. Two of Alabama’s last three opponents are ranked beginning with #16 Mississippi State on the road. This may not look like too much of a challenge but the Crimson Tide are only favored by two touchdowns. That is the second lowest they’ve been favored all season.

Alabama and Georgia will likely play each other in the SEC Conference Championship. As of now, the loser of that game will likely still make the playoffs due to both teams being #1 and #2 while undefeated. However, if one of the two were to lose before they got there then the one with the loss would be eliminated if they were to pick up a second loss in the championship game.

Alabama or Georgia must lose to Auburn

-If Georgia loses to Auburn, then they need to lose again in the SEC Championship.

-If Georgia beats Auburn, then Alabama loses to Auburn, then one-loss Alabama must lose again in the SEC Championship in order to be eliminated.

-If Auburn beats Georgia AND Alabama, then Alabama will be eliminated because they won’t be in the SEC Championship game.

There is actually a very good chance that one of these scenarios occurs. Georgia and Alabama play at Auburn to finish their regular seasons. Auburn is currently ranked at #10 and has quietly been one of the nation’s best teams. Both of their losses have been very close and away from home. This includes a 14-6 loss at Clemson in their second game of the season.

Auburn has positioned themselves to win the SEC outright if they win-out. All three of their remaining games will be at home beginning with Georgia this weekend. Auburn will be just a 2.5 point underdog which shows how fragile Georgia is in the current rankings.

Washington must lose another game to keep the Pac-12 out

The Pac-12 has been long forgotten about since USC flopped after being groomed as one of the best teams entering this season. That is, until Washington reemerged. The Washington Huskies were the Pac-12 champs of last season and entered the playoffs where they actually gave Alabama a bit of a fight in the early goings.

The Washington Huskies took their first loss to Arizona State just three weeks ago which was looking like a knockout punch to the Pac-12’s chances of returning to the playoffs. However, the Huskies have become one of the most recent beneficiaries of the Big Ten beating itself up.

The Big Ten’s top teams have fallen behind the Huskies leaving the door open again for them to claim a playoff spot given they have just one loss. The way the playoff rankings are set right now and their one loss record gives good reason to believe that they’ll have priority over the Big Ten in the end and especially over the two-loss Buckeyes.

Another scenario for the Pac-12 making the playoffs could come from a final surge from USC. The Trojans lost three of their first four games to begin last season then went on to win the rest of their games which nearly slotted them into the playoffs. What is stopping the committee from finding a way to put them in if they impress toward the end of this season? Hopefully the Bucks won’t have to find out.

The Huskies’ remaining schedule is also a bit challenging as they will go on the road to face Stanford on Friday and they will also play #19 Washington State to end the season. If the Huskies win out, they will likely play #11 USC in the conference championship. The winner of the Big Ten would be much more likely to beat out the winner of the Pac-12 if its representative was a two-loss team.

Washington @ Stanford

Washington vs Utah

Washington vs #19 Washington State

The Final Result

If those likely scenarios occur, then the Bucks should find their way into the playoffs given that they get the job done on their end as well.

The top four in the College Football Playoff on selection day will be:

SEC: Alabama or Georgia or Auburn

ACC: Clemson or Miami FL

Big 12: Oklahoma or TCU

Big Ten: Ohio State or Wisconsin or Michigan State

That ugly home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners has been one of the major negatives being held over the Bucks’ head this season. At this point, it would serve the Bucks best to just have the Big 12 make the playoffs with the Sooners being their representative. This will make the Bucks be a more viable candidate to make the playoffs at the same time considering one of their only losses came from a quality Sooners team.

Winning-out should definitely not be taken lightly by the Bucks either. The Bucks’ remaining schedule currently consists of two highly ranked opponents in #12 Michigan State and likely #8 Wisconsin in the conference championship. It also would not be surprising to see TTUN possibly creep back into the top 25 by the time the Bucks play them.

Let’s not forget that TTUN is going to give the Bucks their best shot regardless of if they’re ranked or not. Playing on the road at “The Big House” up north will only add to the difficulty. Again, this will only benefit the Buckeyes in the end as their great strength of schedule will be more than evident on selection day.

If you liked this article and would like to read more similar this one, please visit Alec’s Ohio Sports Blog at alecdhartman.wordpress.com. If you would like to be notified when new articles are posted, go to alecdhartman.wordpress.com and click the follow button in the lower right hand corner.

NCAA Championship Prediction/Analysis: Gonzaga vs North Carolina

The NCAA Tournament is coming to a close after three grueling weekends of play. The 64 team field has been trimmed to just two and the cream has risen from the crop. Yes, plenty of madness occurred along the way but I sincerely believe that the four best teams were crowned from each region and the two best are the ones that remain. There were many story lines that emerged during the tournament but the one that easily stands out among the rest is the eventual seeding of the teams. Nobody should ever expect the committee to be perfect (how could they be?) but the seeding in this tournament and most importantly the grouping of the teams in the four regions was questionable at best. This was one of the main issues to start out with as many spoke out on how some teams were seeded unfairly and it has only become more apparent as the tournament has progressed. There were games in the round of 32 and Sweet 16 that were clearly worthy of an Elite Eight type match up or better. Likewise, there were Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games that looked a lot more like round of 32 match ups. The result of this was a handful of quality teams bowing out of the dance early due to poor placement. Notable victims include Notre Dame (L vs West Virgina in round of 32), Wichita State (L vs Kentucky in round of 32), Iowa State (L vs Purdue in round of 32), Dayton (L vs Wichita State in round of 614), and SMU who deserved at least a 5 seed (L vs USC in round of 64). Then, there were the two 3 seeds that were bound to fall flat on their faces in Baylor and Florida State. Those teams featured top tier players on their rosters but were simply perfect examples of poorly engineered teams. Not only that, but they were also built to bully teams in the regular season with their physical size but fall short in tournament play with below average team chemistry. The teams that made it out of their regions and into the Final Four were well rounded teams who featured multiple players who could score and defend. That is the downfall of many branded squads out there which is either lack of quality depth or the tendency to be one dimensional more times than not. It actually shouldn’t be incredibly surprising to see that the Final Four ended up like this. This result was a pure testament to what this season has been all along. There really weren’t too many overly dominant teams this season so this tournament looked as open as it has ever looked. South Carolina was the biggest surprise of this tournament but they rang in at seventh overall in terms of team defensive efficiency and also has one of the nation’s leading scorers in Sindarius Thornwell. Oregon was another surprise as they reached the Final Four as a three seed over the likes of Kansas and Louisville without one of their big men and leading shot blocker. The Ducks were one of the best shot blocking teams in the nation and had a team full of players who can score from anywhere. North Carolina was expected to be back in the Final Four but they didn’t get there by way of their name alone. They were an above average defensive team who shares the ball well without turning it over and have a wealth of players who can handle the ball as well as they can score it. The Tar Heels have also retained their greatness on the glass as they’ve cemented themselves as the nation’s best in total rebounds per game. Though more people expected Gonzaga to make it to the Final Four than South Carolina or Oregon, they were still doubted by many. This doubt was merited as Gonzaga has consistently made the tournament after promising regular seasons but have always managed to find themselves eliminated far too soon. What those doubters didn’t know was that this Gonzaga team is much different than the ones in the past. This souped up Bulldogs team is filled with talent from head to toe as they’ve added upper echelon players and have one of their best players returned from an injury in the previous season. The Bulldogs are the nation’s best in terms of defensive efficiency, fifth best in offensive efficiency, and sixth best in total rebounds per game. Although the earlier stages of the tournament were a bit shaky, the final product turned out exactly as it should. North Carolina and Gonzaga were two of the most dominant teams in college basketball this season so it was only right that they went head to head in the finale. These are also two of the more balanced teams out there who don’t lack depth at any position. Gonzaga and UNC are actually very similar. They’re each built on depth and size which already puts them above many other teams. They also add solid guard play and great head coaches which puts them on the next level. This championship will surely be an exciting one to watch.

Gonzaga

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have finally exceeded expectations as they not only made the Final Four but have reached the championship game. Entering the tournament as the lowest one seed, many people were quick to cross them off their brackets as the Bulldogs weren’t ‘battle tested’. Though Gonzaga is in the championship game, an argument could be made that they are still not battle tested. Teams that they faced on the way to the championship game include South Dakota State, Northwestern, West Virginia, Xavier, and South Carolina. I’m sure any team would jump at the opportunity to take that path to the championship game. You still can’t really knock those teams too much though as West Virginia probably would have been in my Final Four if they were in another region and Xavier had to go through Maryland, Florida State, and Arizona to get to Gonzaga. South Carolina was definitely not a walk in the park either. The popular belief that Gonzaga isn’t the real deal and hasn’t played anyone yet has fueled their run in this tournament. The further they go, the more people deny who they are. The Bulldogs have been one of the most (if not the most) dominant teams in college basketball this season. They were undefeated for practically the entire season until BYU ended their streak. Their one loss season wasn’t a fraud as they’ve translated it into some solid tournament play. Their balanced style of play mixed with stifling defensive efficiency has contributed to their success. Nigel Williams-Goss is the leading scorer for the Bulldogs. He was a Wooden Award All-American and a Wooden Award finalist as well as being a McDonald’s All-American out of high school. He also leads the team in assists and steals. Williams-Goss transferred to Gonzaga from Washington after his sophomore year and immediately made an impact as he took center stage. However, big man Przemek Karnowski is where all of the real attention goes on this team. He is a 7’1″ 300 pound center. Last season, Karnowski suffered a season ending injury that left a huge gap in the team’s interior. Fortunately, the team had Domantis Sabonis to fill in that gap but imagine how far that Gonzaga team could have went with both of them on the inside. Karnowski is a tremendous passer as a center and has great vision. His sheer size and surprisingly good footwork/skill draws plenty of attention from defenders. He quickly identifies when the double teams come and is able to dish it to the open man for an easy bucket. Freshman forward Zach Collins is an impact player for the Bulldogs. With Williams-Goss and Karnowski taking the spotlight, Collins is the unsung hero on this team. For being 7’0″ tall he is incredibly athletic and has a huge wingspan. He’s a tremendous shot blocker as he averages almost two a game and has great skill for a freshman. Between Williams-Goss and Karnowski, the offense can be tailored to any type of defense and any style of game play. What’s even more interesting is that the Bulldogs almost play better fast than they do slow. You would think that they would thrive in the half court scheme as they play great defense and can slow things down. That’s not entirely the case. Gonzaga can also get out on the break in a hurry and beat defenses with their quick guards and are not afraid to do so in order to build a big lead. Jordan Mathews and Josh Perkins make up the rest of the back court. They are great facilitators and play good defense. Good luck trying to get back in the game as their #1 defense can put the clamps down on the other end.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels have made it back to the championship after their tough loss at the buzzer to Villanova in 2016. The team returned many of their core players this season as Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson were their main departures. North Carolina picked up where it left off by claiming the ACC regular season title and leading the nation in rebounds where they were even better this season than last. Leading the team in assists and steals, Joel Berry II has been a leader on this team. His experience as the point guard and primary ball handler has been instrumental in the team’s success. However, he’s been banged up this season and in the tournament with injuries. His recent ankle injury has held him back a bit but he still continues to play. The team is going to need him in order to bring home the title. Justin Jackson has been absolutely incredible this season. He is the team’s leading scorer by far and won the ACC player of the year award. He has incredibly shooting and ball handling ability at 6’8″. Jackson is a huge part of this UNC strike and will be an important player in the championship game. North Carolina’s big man and best player, Kennedy Meeks, had been an absolute monster. That includes the regular season and in the tournament. He is a massive player at 6’10” 260 pounds and is incredibly skilled. Now in his senior season, he has completely rounded out his skill set. Meeks is a rebounding machine and is the key to the Heels’ top rebounding rating. He has had over ten rebounds in just about every game in their tournament run. Most recently, he had 17 against Kentucky and 14 against Oregon. Not to mention the 25 points he put up in the Final Four with those 14 rebounds including the game sealing rebound in the final seconds. Meeks will be a major factor in this championship game as he has turned into the key cog in how the Heels operate offensively, defensively, and on the glass. A player to look out for on UNC is guard/forward Theo Pinson. He has been terrific in the Heels’ tournament run as he’s taken a lot of the weight off Joel Berry’s shoulders. Pinson has been a solid ball handler and has made huge plays when the team needed it most. He is not afraid to step up when his team is in a funk and he is exactly who the team will fall back on. North Carolina’s depth and dominance on the glass is what has gotten them this far so don’t expect much to change in the championship game.

Stat Comparison

Gonzaga:  83 points per game. 40 rebounds per game. 15 assists per game. 7 steals per game. 5 blocks per game. 11 turnovers per game. 51% field goal percentage. 72% free throw percentage. 38% three point percentage.

North Carolina:  85 points per game. 44 rebounds per game. 18 assists per game. 7 steals per game. 3 blocks per game. 12 turnovers per game. 47% field goal percentage. 70% free throw percentage. 36% three point percentage.

National Rankings

Offensive efficiency: Gonzaga 5th, UNC 10th

Defensive efficiency: Gonzaga 1st, UNC 42nd

Assist/Turnover ratio: Gonzaga 23rd, UNC 7th

Total rebounds per game: Gonzaga 6th, UNC 1st

Prediction

This was easily the biggest struggle that I had when making picks on my bracket before the tournament began. I originally had Gonzaga beating UNC in the championship game in my bracket, but for some reason I may not have locked it in or it must have changed sometime during the tournament because now it displays that I have Gonzaga beating Kansas. I thought for sure I had locked in UNC but maybe I decided to roll with Kansas as the runner-up because Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson, and Devonte’ Graham made up my favorite back court in college hoops. Oregon’s Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey have been a favorite of mine as well though so I didn’t mind seeing them go off against Kansas in the Elite Eight. Regardless, I do have Gonzaga winning the championship in my bracket so I’m going to continue to back them in the title game. The Bulldogs are an extremely well rounded team who have a ton of depth and a multitude of players who can score while also playing tremendous defense. Gonzaga wins with the stats on paper and with their play on the court. They have used their size advantage to roll over physically inferior teams with ease but their superior skill in their big men and guards is what is really going to give them the advantage over UNC. The Bulldogs’ high-low game is something to marvel at. Their big men pass the ball extremely well and have great vision. They also do a good job attracting defenders to the paint and kicking it out to the shooters. What I think is going to be the real factor that puts Gonzaga on top is their guard play. The Bulldogs have more quality depth at the guard spot and on the exterior than the Heels. Add in that UNC’s star point guard/leading scorer Joel Berry II is dealing with some serious ankle problems and that gives the Bulldogs the advantage twofold. Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Mathews, and Josh Perkins make up one dangerous trio of guards. The focus of this game seems to be on the big men inside with North Carolina’s Meeks and Gonzaga’s Karnowski going at it but the guards will be the real turning point as the big men of both sides cancel each other out. UNC is actually not nearly as good on defense as people think they are as evidenced by being 42nd in the nation. Their rebounding is great and everything but it might be a bit misleading. The team has struggled with giving up points as they gave up 80 points to Butler, 73 to Kentucky, and 76 to Oregon. Given those teams can all score pretty well, it’s still quite telling. Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams-Goss is going to be the X-Factor in this game. He has been turnover prone and has had rough stretches in this tournament which has made the team struggle. If he plays well in this game then Gonzaga should be able to walk away with the title. Look out for freshman forward Zach Collins to turn heads in this game as well. He is one of Gonzaga’s secret weapons. Collins is a legit seven footer who has better skills than many other big men out there. He had a double-double against South Carolina in the Final Four and figures to put in some solid minutes against UNC. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are my pick to win the NCAA Championship.

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NCAA Basketball’s Stars Shine Brightest in March: Player Profiles

The month of March is upon us which can only mean one thing: madness. The NCAA Tournament is a very special time of year for sports fans everywhere. Whether it be the casual fan or the die-hard fan who claims to be their school’s most loyal asset, this tournament has something for just about everyone. This tournament grows exponentially in popularity with each passing year which further pushes it to basically becoming a national holiday. I guess it would be an irregular holiday though considering it lasts several days over a subdivided length of time. Regardless, I’m sure the majority would agree that this holiday would be practical and entirely necessary. There are countless reasons why the NCAA tournament is popular but one of the most significant reasons has to be its format. The single elimination bracket makes this championship tournament unique among several sports as it gives each game a great deal of importance. The format choice is remarkable in this instance as basketball (especially college basketball) is a very fast paced sport which makes the results for each game far more unpredictable. All it takes is one bad shooting day for a team to get eliminated. All of this emphasizes the beauty of it all which comes in the form of ‘anything is possible’. A team full of McDonald’s All Americans can be beat by a team that most of the world has never heard of. What people tend to forget is that it’s still just a 5 on 5 game of basketball that includes young players from relatively the same age group. The only difference between the schools with highly rated recruits and the schools with lesser rated recruits is that the highly rated recruits are usually more gifted in the physical/athletic department. Yes, those attributes play a big part in what makes a good ball player but what makes a great ball player especially in these tournament situations is the mental aspect. It takes mental toughness, teamwork, and heart to win in this tournament. The big conference teams with ‘one-and-done’ players are extremely talented and well coached but all I’m saying is that they may only be doing half of it right. A team can’t win it all with just one half or the other. It’s gotta be a good mix of both. With so many variables and moving parts involved in the NCAA Tournament, every anticipated outcome is just mere speculation. However, one thing that can be for certain is that this tournament is only as big as the star players that are in it. What would the Fourth of July be like without the fireworks?

As I explained before, teamwork is an important piece of what makes a sound tournament team. However, for a team to really stand out from the rest, they must have a star player. These players are simply unique. Terms to describe this type of player include ‘X-factor’, play maker, reliable, clutch, and leader. Players like this have the ability to single-handedly take over a game with their game-breaking prowess and take their team to the next level. The game moves through them and so does the success of the team. They provide a physical and/or emotional impact on the game which also has an impact on teammates and in some ways the opposition as well. The opposing team knows who the ball is going to but there is no way they can stop it. This is more obvious in some teams than others. There’s no denying which players will fade and which will shine in crunch time. It’s either you have it or you don’t. Here is a list of impact players to look out for in this year’s edition of March Madness.

EAST REGION

Villanova:  Josh Hart (19 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.6 spg, .50 fg%, .75 ft%, .40 3pt%)

Hart has went from unsung hero on a largely ignored Villanova squad in 2016 to a clear cut top three Wooden Award candidate. It’s funny how it takes a championship to propel a team from nothing into everything. With questions concerning how Villanova will recover from a championship win and departures of star players like Ryan Arcidiacano and Daniel Ochefu, Hart wasted no time answering them by immediately taking charge. He led the team to a 14-0 record to start his senior season and never looked back. The Wildcats return to the tournament as a one seed this time around with a three loss record and clean sweep of the Big East tournament. Hart’s ability to lead the team in points per game, three point percentage per game, rebounds per game, and second in assists per game is nothing short of incredible. Look for him to continue to put his team on his back once tournament time rolls around.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Brunson (14.8 ppg, 4.2 apg, .54 fg%, .87 ft%, .39 3pt%)

Brunson was just a freshman when the Wildcats took home their first championship in decades. He was a named a starter in the championship game and provided some quality minutes as a ball handler without turning the ball over one time. Now in his sophomore season, Brunson is so much more than just a ball handler. He and Josh Hart are a dual threat duo of guards who can shoot the lights out while staying aggressive off the dribble. Like Hart, Brunson shoots at a high percentage and is a great passer. He leads the team in assists per game. Jalen Brunson may be in the shadow of his counterpart but he is not afraid to make things happen on his own.

Wisconsin:  Bronson Koenig (14 ppg, 2 apg, .42 fg%, .89 ft%, .38 3pt%)

The Badgers have been strong in the Big Ten for a couple of years now so it’s not going to be a surprise to see them pop up in the NCAA Tournament where they’ve thrived. Though, the team has been quite different since the great 2014-2015 team of seniors that led to a championship appearance graduated. The roster has thinned out which has led to a lack of quality depth in several spots. Bronson Koenig is one of the few remaining players from that squad. This is important because he still plays with the same mentality that they did. Koenig is a winning player who knows the culture and is keeping it alive. He is not afraid to step up in crunch time and take big shots. This is most notable in last year’s NCAA Tournament where he knocked down a big shot to tie the game against #2 seed Xavier and then the proceeding game winning shot to send the Badgers to the Sweet 16. Koenig is set to lead his team in what will be his last tournament appearance.

Honorable Mentions: Ethan Happ (14 ppg, 9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2 spg, .58 fg%), Nigel Hayes (13.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, .45 fg%)

Happ isn’t exactly the reincarnation of Frank Kaminski but he’s certainly on his way there. After a productive freshman season, Happ has now improved his game and looks like he is getting better in every game. His game is largely predicated on post moves around the basket and passing while on the low block. His ability to draw multiple defenders into the lane due to his potent scoring ability opens up shooters on the perimeter where he utilizes his passing ability to perfection. Like Koenig, Hayes is a remnant from the great Wisconsin team that made a run to the championship game just a couple yeras prior. He is a stretch type player who can do a little bit of just about everything. He isn’t a great player, but his experience as a senior helps the team in a lot of ways that may not even show up on the stat sheet.

Virginia Tech: Zach LeDay (16.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, .53 fg%, .78 ft%)

The Hokies have been a wildcard in the ACC. They have a solid all around team that doesn’t boast big name players but just plays good team basketball. Though, they do have a good resume of big wins over ranked teams such as Duke, Virginia, and Miami FL. Senior forward Zach LeDay leads the charge for the Hokies. He leads the team in points per game, rebounds per game, and blocks per game. His game flows through the paint and under the basket. At 6’7″, he is a bit undersized in that are but his aggressiveness/post moves allow him to score and come up with rebounds with the best of them.

Honorable Mention: Seth Allen (13.4 ppg, 3.3 apg, .54 fg%, .73 ft%, .45 3pt%)

The Hokies are a great run and gun team as their team is relatively efficient from deep with a 40% three point percentage. This team distributes the ball well and finds open shooters. One of the team’s most efficient shooters is senior guard Seth Allen. He is extremely efficient with 54% from the field and 45% from three. His ability to shoot the ball effectively makes him dangerous in short possession territory as well as all other choke points in a game.

Virginia:  London Perrantes (12.5 ppg, 3 rpg, 3.8 apg, .41 fg%, .81 ft%)

When it comes to veteran players in the ACC, Perrantes is one of the most seasoned out there. He has played over 30 minutes a game throughout his four year tenure at Virginia. He has went from a shooter to a facilitating ball handler to a facilitating ball handler/shooter. This is largely due to the changes that have occurred on Virginia’s roster in recent years. Most recently, the team lost notable stars such as Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill while before that it was Justin Anderson. This year, he’s almost completely alone as the team that shaped him has all but vanished. He’s had to basically do it all this season which has had positive and negative results. His shot attempts raised while his shots made percentage lowered. He went from being a 49% three point shooter last season to a mere 38% this season. Interestingly enough, his assist rate has also taken a hit as averages almost a full assist less per game in this season. This team has been very inconsistent this season and really hasn’t been great for a good part of it. If Virginia is to make a run, Perrantes and the offense are going to have to get their problems sorted out.

UNC Wilmington: C.J. Bryce (17.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3 apg, .49 fg%) & Chris Flemmings (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, .47 fg%, .77 ft%) & Denzel Ingram (14.5 ppg, 5.4 apg, .71 ft%)

The Seahawks of UNC Wilmington have returned to the NCAA tournament for a second helping after giving Duke a game in the first round last year. They haven’t done much but gain more experience. This team is led by a trio of guards in sophomore C.J. Bryce, senior Chris Flemmings, and senior Denzel Ingram. These guards shoot at a high percentage and share the ball very well. However, the Seahawks do not shoot the ball very well from behind the arc as they are only a modest 36% from deep. This group of guards is experienced and is fresh off a NCAA Tournament appearance from last year. Whichever team is matched up with them should prepare accordingly.

SMU: Semi Ojeleye (19 ppg, 6.8 rpg, .49 fg%, .78 ft%, .43 3pt%)

The Mustangs have been great this season. In fact, they were great last season too. The difference is that they were suspended from last year’s postseason so all of their success went largely unnoticed. Another difference is that the team was without star-to-be Semi Ojeleye. Junior forward Ojeleye leads the team in points per game and is second on the team in rebounds per game, free throw percentage, and three point percentage. He transferred from Duke after two seasons and is making a serious impact on the mustangs who were already in good standing. After being held out of the postseason last year, the SMU Mustangs are hungry for some meaningful wins and ready to prove that they are the real deal.

South Carolina:  Sindarius Thornwell (21 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.2 spg, .44 fg%, .83 ft%, .39 3pt%)

With most of the SEC hidden in the shadow of mighty Kentucky, teams like South Carolina tend to get overlooked. This is for good reason. The SEC has been a work in progress for the past few years and now I am almost (maybe) finally starting to believe that some of the teams are starting to get it together. The driving force behind South Carolina’s success these past season has been star point guard Sindarius Thornwell. He is averaging a sizable 21 points per game and leads his team in average rebounds, steals, and free throw percentage. Now in his senior season, Thornwell is looking to make his play heard on the next level in the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor: Johnathan Motley (17.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1 bpg, .51 fg%, .71 ft%)

The Bears started off the season extremely hot after going 15-0 while beating several highly ranked teams in the process. Given they did play 14 of those 15 games at home it was still impressive nonetheless. The Bears’ success this season can be attributed to the breakout of junior forward Johnathan Motley. He is 6’10” 235 pounds and is as lengthy a player as you’ll see. He averages a double-double and is a good passer. One piece of criticism that I would have on him is that his game has been known to fade a bit as he plays better competition. He has the talent and ability but may not have the mentality. If Motley can step up when the going gets tough in these tournament games then Baylor will find some success.

Honorable Mention: Manu Lecomte (12.4 ppg, 4 apg, .44 fg%, .81 ft%, .42 3pt%)

Lecomte is one of the team’s best shooters. He also has to handle a good bulk of the team’s ball handling duties. This 5’11” junior guard is who holds this Baylor team together. His ability to distribute the ball to Baylor’s many big men while also being a great spot up shooter makes him a key cog in the Baylor’s success. In this tournament, he will have to prove that he can keep up with the nation’s premier guards in order for the team to succeed.

Duke: Luke Kennard (20 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, .50 fg%, .85 ft%, .44 3pt%) & Jayson Tatum (17 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, .45 fg%, .86 ft%)

Kennard, ACC Player of the Year candidate/Wooden Award candidate, is one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation. He can score from just about anywhere whether he’s spotting up, creating his own shot, or driving the lane. He is also a gifted passer as he is second on the team in assists. He may not be gifted physically but his vision, quickness, and quick shot release make up for it. Tatum is the second leading scorer on the team but is the mismatch on the floor that the opposing team simply cannot defend. He’s a 6’8″ forward whose length makes him seem much taller than that. He’s one of the most impressive freshmen in the nation as he is extremely athletic and also very poised for his age. Tatum is averaging over 20 points per game over his last four games. Kennard and Tatum are the go-to guys on Duke when it comes to handling the ball in crunch time. Their free-throw shooting and great scoring ability makes them dangerous in short clock situations.

Honorable Mention: Grayson Allen (14.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, .81 ft%)

Everyone’s most hated college basketball player. His history of dirty hits and ill temper has pegged him with quite the reputation. Since he entered the limelight in 2014 after his breakout performance in the tournament championship game, Mike Krzyzewski has given Allen a much larger role in the Duke game plans. However, Allen returned the favor by putting his dirty/cheap play on display for the whole nation to witness. His actions caused an uproar of criticism from the basketball community which in turn set forth criticism on the program. It got so bad that Krzyzewski had no choice but to suspend Allen because of the negative reputation being reflected onto him and the program itself. Grayson Allen is an emotional player who plays with a good bit of passion, though, his demonstrative actions tend to lean more toward cheap shots on other players than anything else. Nevertheless, Allen seems to always come up big in the big games so he still easily makes the list of impact players.

WEST REGION

Gonzaga: Nigel Williams-Goss (16.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.8 spg, .52 fg%, .91 ft%)

The rich get richer with the Gonzaga Bulldogs as they picked up a quality transfer in guard Nigel Williams-Goss. He transferred from Washington after his sophomore season and became a star on the team that is quickly becoming one of the nation’s elites in Gonzaga. He led the team to an almost unblemished record until BYU shocked the world by pulling off an upset on the Bulldogs’ home floor. The Bulldogs still retained the one seed though heading into the tournament. Williams-Goss is leading his team in points per game, assists per game, and free throw percentage. He is a great scorer and an even better passer. His defense is also notable as he leads the team with almost two steals per game. The addition of a star player of this caliber is just what Gonzaga needs in order to silence the doubters and finally exceed expectations by making a deep run into the tournament.

Honorable Mention: Przemek Karnowski (12.6 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 bpg, .60 fg%)

Karnowski is the centerpiece of the Bulldogs’ entire game plan. He is their most important piece and could also be one of the nation’s best centers. He is absolutely unstoppable on the interior and the game basically goes the way that he goes. It’s hard for it not to be this way considering his mammoth stature at 7’1″ 300 pounds. Karnowski is the team’s second leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker. He is extremely mobile for his size with crisp post moves and textbook footwork. Last year, his season was cut by a tragic injury. Now in his senior year, Karnowski is looking better than ever and looking to be a big part of what the Bulldogs have in store for this NCAA Tournament.

South Dakota State: Mike Daum (25.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .51 fg%, .87 ft%, .41 3pt%)

Every so often there will be a team that will enter the tournament with that one guy from that small team who can just dominate. There are several teams that didn’t quite make it that are like that (i.e. Central Michigan’s Marcus Keene, North Florida’s Dallas Moore, Washington’s Markelle Fultz, etc.) but sure enough SDSU’s Jackrabbits did. Sophomore 6’9″ forward Mike Daum is machine that makes the Jackrabbits go. He leads the team in averages of points and rebounds and is second most in three point percentage, free throw percentage, and field goal percentage. It’s an absolute anomaly how he came out of nowhere and has become one of the nation’s top scoring threats. His size makes him even more difficult to handle. After falling just short of upsetting #5 seed Maryland last year, the Jackrabbits are once again one of the favorites to pull off an upset with their star player firing on all cylinders.

Northwestern: Bryant McIntosh (14.4 ppg, 5.2 apg, .40 fg%, .86 ft%)

The Northwestern Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. This is a great development in NCAA Basketball as is would be for any other team making their first appearance in the big dance. This can be largely attributed to the play of junior guard Bryant McIntosh. His ability to distribute the ball while being a relatively consistent scorer and team leader has helped bring the Wildcats to the next level. In order for the Wildcats to advance past the first round, McIntosh will have to continue to take care of the ball.

Honorable Mention: Scottie Lindsey (14.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, .43 fg%, .84 ft%)

Lindsey is one of the team’s leading scorers and is also one of their most efficient shooters. Northwestern had to deal with his brief absence due to injury but he has returned to his normal productive self. He is also a great passer and makes an effort to get good boards on a game to game basis.

Notre Dame: Bonzie Colson (17.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.4 bpg, .52 fg%, .79 ft%, .40 3pt%)

On a team where every player on the court can score at any given time, Bonzie Colson takes home the most notable player recognition due to the fact that he consistantly posts huge numbers regardless of his opponent. This was one of the most difficult choices because of the sheer amount of weapons that this Notre Dame ball club has to offer. He has turned into a monster in all phases of the game and could be in the running for breakout player of the year. Colson leads the team in averages of points, rebounds, shot blocks, and shooting percentage. He is averaging a double-double and can also shoot from the perimeter surprisingly well for his size. Recently, his game has ascended to the next level as he is averaging over 20 points per game in his last five games including 29 points against Duke in the ACC championship. Notre Dame is a well rounded team but the success of Bonzie Colson will be what truly decides how far they can really go.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Farrell (14.2 ppg, 5.5 apg, .44 fg%, .80 ft%, .41 3pt%)

Notre Dame was in need of a point guard to step up in the departure of the play making Demetrius Jackson. Junior guard Matt Farrell wasn’t about to waste the opportunity. He stepped in and made an immediate impact as a play maker. His abilities as a ball handler, passer, and shooter made him a fine replacement. He is one of the most efficient shooters on the team from distance and from just about everywhere else. Farrell also leads the team in assists per game. As long as he continues to take care of the ball and feed his shooters, Notre Dame will be deadly as ever.

West Virginia: Jevon Carter (13 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg, 2.6 spg, .45 fg%, .77 ft%)

Jevon Carter has evolved into one of the most prolific guards in the country. Not only is he an excellent defender, he is also a great shooter and passer. His progression at West Virginia since his first season there has been a sight to see. He is now in his junior year and is only getting better. Carter’s ability to create separation with his handles in order to create his own shot is incredible. He leads the team in averages of steals, assists, and is second best in rebounds per game. The aggressive and deliberate style that he plays with makes him one of a kind. He leads by example and will be one of the most feared guards in this tournament.

Honorable Mentions: Esa Ahmad (11.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .48 fg%), Nathan Adrian (10 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg, 1.4 spg, .42 fg%, .73 ft%)

West Virginia’s team is full exceptional role players. One that stands out the most has to be Nathan Adrian. He is a leader on the court with his basketball IQ and quick decision making. Adrian may be visibly less athletic than any of the players on the court but he certainly makes up for it with his intelligent play style. He is easily one of the team’s most valuable players. Esa Ahmad is another significant player on this roster. He is the team’s second leading scorer and one of the team’s most efficient shooters. Ahmad is a 6’8″ sophomore forward out of Cleveland, Ohio. He uses his size and athleticism to make plays. His improvement as a player is evident as he continues to get better with every game.

Maryland: Melo Trimble (17 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, .44 fg%, .79 ft%)

Trimble may get a bit too much credit for his abilities. Since he emerged as an impact player in his freshman season, he seems to have shifted further and further away from the player he once was. He still flashes some of that ability from time to time but his turnovers and inefficient shooting bouts are certainly beginning to outweigh the positives. He is at his best as a facilitator for the team’s young and talented offensive pieces. Trimble has also been great at getting his work done when driving the paint but has lost some touch on finishing at the rim. It will be interesting to see which Melo Trimble shows up to the tourney.

Xavier: Trevon Bluiett (18 ppg, 5.8 rpg, .43 fg%, .75 ft%)

The Musketeers have had a rough go of it this season. The losses of Myles Davis and Edmond Sumner have completely changed their whole game. This led to an up and down tailspin of a season that really tanked on their original expectations. One bright spot on this team came in the form of junior guard Trevon Bluiett. He was a solid contributor for his first two seasons as a Musketeer but has extended his game to the next level with the team having nobody else to turn to. His production has righted the ship through the Big East conference schedule and has landed the Musketeers in yet another NCAA tournament appearance. The departures of key players will limit this team’s ceiling but don’t count them out of a couple early round wins.

Florida State: Dwayne Bacon (17 ppg, 4 rpg, .44 fg%, .75 ft%)

Dwayne Bacon has been a great asset to the Seminoles for the past two seasons. He’s put a big numbers and has been a large part of many wins. However, he has a major problem with consistency and efficiency. He is also not exactly the player you’d prefer shooting when the team badly needs a bucket (though there isn’t much to choose from on this team regarding that subject). His numbers are likely the product of plenty of opportunity. If you feed a shooter enough times then eventually his shots are going to fall. He is either extremely hot or frigid cold. This in not the recipe for repeated success in this multi-round tournament. Though, if he can stay hot for long enough and limits bad shots/turnovers then the sky is the limit for a team of this caliber.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Isaac (12 ppg, 7.6 apg, 1.5 bpg, .50 fg%, .79 ft%)

This Florida State team is one of the tallest in college basketball. It is also filled with some NBA talent. Freshman 6’10” 210 pound forward Jonathan Isaac is an NBA type player who has been great for this Seminole team. He is a stretch player who has great length and superior athleticism. His overall game still needs some work but the potential is there. The issue that he and the Seminoles is the inability to consistently play well against better teams out of their home court. This team will have to remedy that issue if they seek to make a run.

Florida Gulf Coast: Brandon Goodwin (18.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 4 apg, .51 fg%, .79 ft%)

The NCAA Tournament sensation that everyone has been waiting for has finally returned. Dunk City is back. They return with a bevy of weapons including top dog Brandon Goodwin. He is a 6’2″ 180 pound junior guard transfer from UCF who leads his team in averages of points, assists, and free throw percentage. He is not a great perimeter shooter at just 36% but makes him living on the interior with his driving/pull up abilities. This has been easily his best season in his college career and is looking to extend it in the tournament with the help of his teammates.

Saint Mary’s: Jock Landale (16.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, .61 fg%)

The shadow of Gonzaga looms large over the Saint Mary’s Gaels. The Gaels have been shunned by the Bulldogs for quite some time. Yet, the Gaels have remained dominant. They beat up on everyone else other than the Bulldogs who they have just never found out how to crack. However, their consistency has landed them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. This squad is led by dynamic big man Jock Landale. He is a 6’11” 255 pound junior forward who can do it all. As the main power source for the Gaels, he leads them in averages of points, rebounds, shot blocks, and shooting efficiency. He is a stretch big who can makes shots at a very high rate on the interior. The success of this team lies on his shoulders so he will have to keep production flowing in order for the Gaels to continue on this season.

VCU: JeQuan Lewis (14.7 ppg, 4.6 apg, .43 fg%, .1.7 spg, 83 ft%)

They say that the point guard position is important to the success of teams in the NCAA Tournament but this is especially true for VCU. Senior point guard JeQuan Lewis runs this VCU Rams team. He is a savvy guard who is quick on his feet and has a great feel for the game. As a senior, he has a wealth of experience on what being a VCU Ram is really about. Lewis prides himself on being a great defender but he has also become a great scorer with time. He is also a great passer as he leads the team in assists. This team will live and die by way of creating turnovers and limiting their own turnovers. Look for Lewis to be a key factor in this game plan.

Honorable Mention: Mo Alie-Cox (9.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg, .55 fg%, .74 ft%)

VCU has been a team known for their great defense. Senior forward Mo Alie-Cox is well aware of that. He leads the team by far in blocks with 2.1 per game. His 6’7″ 250 pound stature makes coming in the lane close to impossible. Alie-Cox is great at disrupting shots and has also extended his game to scoring around the rim. He has great footwork as a big man and can power through just about anyone.

Arizona: Allonzo Trier (17.3 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.7 apg, .47 fg%, .80 ft%, .41 3pt%)

The Arizona Wildcats have turned in yet another season full of Pac-12 dominance. Though, this didn’t come without its difficulties. Their star sophomore guard Allonzo Trier was suspended for a good part of the beginning of the season which set off some chemistry issues within the team. Having such a major piece being absent from their structure really made it difficult for themselves and others to diagnose who Arizona really was. It wasn’t until Trier returned when the team began to really start to gel into the well oiled machine that they are now. Trier leads the team in averages of points and is a top contributor in categories of rebounding, assists, shooting efficiency, and free throw percentage. He is truly a gifted scorer and is one of the best pure scorers that the conference and the NCAA in general has to offer. His play will reflect on the success of the Wildcats in the tournament.

Honorable Mention: Lauri Markkanen (15.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, .49 fg%, .82 ft%, .43 3pt%)

As just a freshman on this perennial Arizona power, Lauri Markkanen has taken the NCAA by storm. He is a legit seven foot forward who is actually a much better shooter than anything else. His ability to shoot from behind the arc is remarkable given his size. Markkanen can also operate on the interior as he is capable at driving to the basket. He is a star in the making and will only get better as he gains more experience.

MIDWEST REGION

Kansas: Frank Mason III (20.8 ppg, 4 rpg, 5 apg, .48 fg%, .78 ft%, .48 3pt%)

The growth of point guard Frank Mason III has been incredible. He has made the transformation from just a facilitator to becoming a superstar guard who can do it all. Mason went from 12 points per game to 20 points per game as well as raising his overall shooting efficiency and three point shooting efficiency to almost 50%. Although he is just 5’11” 190 pounds, he can drive the paint better than anyone, create his own shot better than anyone, and do just about everything better than everyone. Mason will likely be a Wooden Award finalist which he deserves every piece of. This isn’t his first rodeo when it comes to leading Kansas to a high seed in the tournament. Mason is the most experienced player out there when it comes to the NCAA Tournament and will not shy away when it comes to pressure situations. Mason thrives in short possession situations as he will do anything to beat the opposition. This will be Mason’s appearance in the NCAA Tournament so don’t expect him to go quietly.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Jackson (16.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3 apg, 1.6 spg, .51 fg%), Landen Lucas(8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1 bpg, .64 fg%), Devonte’ Graham (13 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.5 spg, .42 fg%, .78 ft%)

The Jayhawks are always full of talent but it’s not always common for them to be anywhere near full of veteran players. Junior guard Devonte’ Graham and senior forward Landen Lucas join Frank Mason III in the starting lineup this season. Graham is a tough defender who can shut down the opposing teams’ best weapon and Lucas is a veteran big man who has plenty of post moves in his disposal for scoring/defending around the rim. Then there was freshman Josh Jackson. He was one of the highest rated freshmen coming into this season. Jackson definitely did not disappoint. He is the second in averages of points and rebounds as well as being the best in steals and shot blocks per game. His extreme athleticism mixed with his length has given this Kansas team another dimension. The importance of Jackson was on full display when the team lost to TCU in the Big 12 tournament due to his absence. Expect the Jayhawks’ veteran leadership mixed with athletic youth to make an impact on the tournament.

Miami FL: Davon Reed (15 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 spg, .43 fg%, .83 ft%, .40 3pt%)

The Hurricanes are back for another NCAA Tournament appearance. The team has retained many of its players from last season’s roster which gives them a good bit of experience. Senior guard Davon Reed leads the way for the Hurricanes as he leads the team in averages of points, free throw percentage, and three point shooting efficiency. Reed is a larger guard and can score from anywhere on the floor. His versatility is what really makes him stand out among the rest. He is the team’s best perimeter shooter but also one of the team’s best weapons when driving to the basket which really keeps defenders on their heels. Miami isn’t particular great in any part of the game but does have some tough guard play. Count on senior guard Davon Reed making an impact in the postseason.

Michigan State: Miles Bridges (16.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2 apg, 1.6 bpg, .48 fg%, .39 3pt%)

The Spartans have returned to the NCAA tournament once again. It seems like no matter how low they get, the Spartans still manage to find their way in. Coach Tom Izzo works his magic each season whether it’s recruiting or just raw coaching ability. It’s probably a good bit of both. Speaking of Izzo, he found himself a gem in freshman Miles Bridges. He has the perfect combination of smarts, skill, and athleticism. Bridges is leading the team in averages of points, rebounds, shot blocks, and is among the team’s most efficient shooters. His three point shot is actually much better than most people expect too. He is a stretch player who can use his size to take advantage of mismatches inside but also has the athleticism to handle the ball and drive it to the rim himself. The Spartans may be a bit shorthanded this season due to injuries/departures but they still have a star player, coach, and fairly capable supporting cast that has the ability to let them compete with the best of them.

Iowa State: Monte Morris (16.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 6 apg, 1.5 spg, .46 fg%, .79 ft%)

The Iowa State Cyclones not exactly been a dominant team in the Big 12 but they have certainly been consistent. The Cyclones always end up in the top half of the conference and they always have plenty of players who can shoot the lights out. They shoot 40% from three and 47% from the field as a team. This season’s team appears to be one of destiny as four of their five starters are seniors. This veteran group is led by point guard Monte Morris. He leads the team in averages of points and assists. Morris is incredibly  fast with the ball in his hands as he can make decisions on the fly while using his stellar vision to make things happen around him. He has improved more and more as a scorer as time went on and is finally looking like he’s reaching his full potential. The sky is the limit for this veteran Cyclones team and they are in good hands as long as Monte Morris is at the helm.

Nevada: Marcus Marshall (19.8 ppg, 3.6 apg, .83 ft%, .39 3pt%)

The Nevada Wolf Pack has emerged as the representative of a Mountain West Conference that was previously dominated by San Diego State. The big story here is senior guard Marcus Marshall. He is a transfer from Missouri State where he spent his first three seasons. He was a productive player there but is now enjoying a postseason appearance in his final season. Marshall will get an opportunity to prove his scoring prowess on the big stage in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue: Caleb Swanigan (18.5 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 3 apg, .79 ft%, .43 3pt%)

Big Ten player of the year and Wooden Award candidate Caleb Swanigan has been a machine this season. He has done it all for Purdue whether is be scoring/rebounding on the inside or efficient shooting on the perimeter. Swanigan has been head and shoulders above the competition as he’s averaged a double-double this season. Purdue has been known for their exceptional big men but none have been quite as versatile as Swanigan. His ability to score around the interior while also being a threat on the perimeter makes him an impossible match up for defenders. He is a leader in just about every category which has aided Purdue in dominating the Big Ten. The Boilermakers have a serious weapon in sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan.

Oregon: Dillon Brooks (16.3 ppg, 2.7 apg, .51 fg%, .73 ft%, .41 3pt%)

Brooks is the Ducks’ leading scorer and leader in three point percentage. A large part of the blame for Oregon’s great success over the past few years goes to Brooks due to his ability to score at will and draw the defense to him. He can beat you in the paint with his strong drives, can hit mid-range jumpers with ease, and pull up from three. It also helps that he had a great supporting cast around him that can shoot and handle the ball just as well as he can. It’s always beneficial to pure scorers for them to not have to carry all of the ball handling responsibilities.

Honorable Mention: Jordan Bell (10.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.1 bpg, .62 fg%)

Bell is the muscle of this Ducks team. He does all of the dirty work inside as he is a machine on the offensive/defensive glass. His shot blocking ability makes him even more intimidating. Chris Boucher would have made this list if he hadn’t suffered a tragic ACL injury to end his season just before the tournament. Boucher was the team’s leading shot blocker with 2.5 blocked shots per game. With this development, Bell will be even more busy as he now has to carry twice his weight. With the way that Bell has been playing in Boucher’s absence, I’m sure he will be more than up to the task. Overall, Oregon’s ability to score should outweigh some of the loss that they will miss in Boucher’s absence.

Iona: Jordan Washington (18 ppg, 7.4 rpg, .55 fg%)

Washington returned to Iona after the team suffered a first round out in the NCAA Tournament just one season ago. Iona was a victim of the gun-slinging Iowa State Cyclones as they couldn’t keep up with their shooters. Washington was productive in that game with 26 points and 12 rebounds while his talented counterpart A.J. English had 28 points  and six assists. English left Iona after last season so Washington was left to pilot the Gaels on his own. He has led his team back to he tournament for the second time but they may be even more short-handed than before. Iona will face what will be an even better scoring team in Oregon in the first round.

Michigan: Derrick Walton Jr. (15.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.7 apg, .43 fg%, .87 ft%, .41 3pt%)

The Wolverines were one of the various surprises that the Big Ten had to offer this season. They began as a very inconsistent but talented team and then suddenly put it all together in the last month of the season. Senior point guard Derrick Walton was one of the major causes in that development. He leads the team in averages of points, assists, steals, free throw percentage, and is one of the leaders in rebounding/ three point efficiency. His individual success has brought out the best in his teammates. Ball distribution to several different players has led to confidence in the team as a unit. He plays with a lot of heart and his veteran abilities as a guard has been highly beneficial to his team’s success. His leadership will be a big factor on Michigan’s chances in the tournament.

Honorable Mention: Moritz Wagner (12 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .56 fg%, .73 ft%, .41 3pt%)

Big man Moritz Wagner has been very instrumental in the late success of this team. I think that the inconsistency early in the season was partly due to not knowing how to use him correctly. Wagner is a 6’11” 240 pound sophomore forward who is a very efficient shooter inside and out. His impressive abilities away from the basket with his size makes him a unique player and an extremely hard player to match up with. He is a stretch player who can shoot efficiently from the perimeter as well as drive the lane with good hand off a pick-and-roll. His connection with senior point guard Derrick Walton Jr. makes them a dangerous combination.

Oklahoma State: Jawun Evans (19 ppg, 6.2 apg, 1.8 spg, .44 fg%, .81 ft%)

The Okie State Cowboys have been a middle of the pack team in the Big 12. It is very difficult to keep up in such a tough conference such as the Big 12 but the Cowboys have managed to compete just fine. This is mostly due to the point guard phenom that is Jawun Evans. He is a 6’1″ sophomore guard and one of the top three guards in the nation at that. His 6.2 assists ranks him as one of the best in the nation in that category. He is extremely fast and can move like greased lightening with the ball in his hands. His ability to defend while also being a tremendous scorer sets him apart from the pack. Evans leads the Cowboys in averages of points, assists, and steals. Jawun Evans is one of the most dangerous point guards in this tournament. If his supporting cast does their part around him then look out for Evans and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Louisville: Donovan Mitchell (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.1 spg, .41 fg%, .80 ft%)

On a team that boasts ten players who play at least 10 minutes or more per game, sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell stands out from the pack because of his pure athleticism and exceptional scoring ability. He can be inconsistent at times but he is an avid play maker who is full of highlight reel material. Fortunately, the one are where he is consistent is on the free throw line where his team struggles immensely. If he can answer the questions on inconsistency and turnover issues, then he can surely make his mark on this tournament.

SOUTH REGION

North Carolina: Justin Jackson (18 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, .44 fg%, .74 ft%, .38 3pt%) & Joel Berry II (14.8 ppg, 3.7 apg, .45 fg%, .83 ft%, .41 3pt%)

Last season’s championship runner-ups have returned with a vengeance. This team has returned many key players from last season with their departures limiting to Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. Though those were great players, it didn’t destroy the core of the team. The Tar Heels wasted no time getting back to work as they maintained their place as a high scoring offense with a stingy defense. They still had elite size and athleticism on the roster. Justin Jackson’s game ascended to the next level in this season as he became the ACC player of the year. His ability to handle the ball, shoot, rebound, assist, and do just about everything else made him a match up nightmare. Joel Berry II has became an even better scorer as his shooting efficiency has raised and also his efficiency from beyond the arc. He is a great ball handler and can also make things happen in the paint despite his size disadvantages. Berry leads the team in assists, free throw percentage, and three point efficiency. This is an extremely balanced team that has the size and athleticism to take them as far they are willing to go.

Seton Hall: Angel Delgado (15.3 ppg, 13 rpg, .55 fg%)

The nation’s leader in rebounds resides with Seton Hall. At 6’10” 240 pounds, junior forward Angel Delgado is an absolute monster on the offensive and defensive glass. His ability to give his team second chance opportunities has gave them a great advantage over their opponents. The best part about it is that this team may not even need it considering they already shoot 45% from the field. However, they do struggle mightily from behind the arc as they are only converting at a 33% clip. Delgado is also the team’s third leading scorer and second most efficient shooter. This team is great on the offensive glass and limits opponents’ second chance opportunities. Their physical style will be their point of emphasis in this tournament.

Minnesota: Nate Mason (15.5 ppg, 5 apg, .81 ft%)

The success of this team came as a surprise to many as they’ve been overlooked in recent history. The team went on a five game Big Ten losing streak in the month of January leaving many to believe that their season was already a bust as it’s previously been. The Golden Gophers proceeded to go on an eight game winning streak to close the regular season before losing to Wisconsin in the final game. The team’s size and rebounding ability had led to their eventual success. Another key factor in their success was the maturing progression of point guard Nate Mason. He has been a focal point on this team as he is the primary ball handler. Now in his junior season with the Gophers, he is leading the team in averages of scoring, assists, steals, and free throw percentage. If I were to compare him to another player, it would be Kansas’ Frank Mason III. Obviously that is an exaggeration but let’s just say he’s the cheap man’s version of him. Some of his attributes remind me of him such as leadership, driving ability, and passing. In the NCAA Tournament, Mason will have to prove his ability and poise to keep up with the steep competition that will present itself.

Middle Tennessee State: Giddy Potts (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, .49 fg%, .80 ft%, .39 3pt%)

Junior guard Giddy Potts has turned in yet another productive season with MTSU. He has improved a bit this season and has been a big factor in yet another NCAA Tournament bid. He is a sizable guard at 6’2″ 220 pounds. His efficient shooting has been his strength, though, his three point shooting has faltered since last season with a decrease from 50% to just 39%.

Honorable Mentions: JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, .54 fg%, .70 ft%), Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, .52 fg%, .72 ft%)

Williams is a terrific scorer as he leads the team in points per game and field goal percentage. He was at Arkansas for his first three seasons before transferring to MTSU and enjoying his best season to date. Most of his work is done in the interior where he consistently knocks down high percentage shots. He is a 6’8″ 220 pound forward. Reggie Upshaw is about the same size as Williams and is also a forward. Their dual interior attack is very difficult for opposing teams to handle. He is enjoying his best season so far. These two seniors are the motors for this team. Potts and Upshaw were huge in the upset of #2 seed Michigan State last season as they recorded 19 and 21 points respectively. Now that they are joined by senior forward JaCorey Williams, this 30 win team is as dangerous as they’ve ever been.

Butler: Kelan Martin (16.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, .42 fg%, .77 ft%)

Martin is one of the few veterans on this Butler team. Butler’s roster has dwindled a bit as they’ve lost a few key players since last season. The roster no longer includes players like Kellen Dunham or Roosevelt Jones. Martin is left to carry the weight left by the absence of those players and is enjoying one of his more productive seasons. He does great work on the glass and is a relatively efficient shooter. His emergence as a leader on this team is going to be a determining factor in their tournament tenure.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Chrabascz (11 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, .45 fg%, .76 ft%)

Andrew Chrabascz is another veteran that is has anchored this developing Butler team. He is a leader on the floor and has a great basketball IQ due to his wealth of experience. His post moves and vision makes him a productive player. Whatever he can’t do with his lack of athleticism, he makes it happen with smart players and winning mentality. If this team can put it all together in time for their tournament debut, look for Chrabascz to be a big part of their success.

Winthrop: Keon Johnson (22.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, .43 fg%, .87 ft%, .40 3pt%), Xavier Cooks (16.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.8 bpg, .49 fg%, .70 ft%)

Senior guard Keon Johnson is certainly making a point to end his college career on a high note. He is has elevated his game to new heights in his final season by finishing in the top ten in points per game. The best part about all of this is that he is just 5’7″ 160 pounds. Johnson sets the example for star players coming in all shapes and sizes. This is one player that you do not want to miss when flipping through tournament games. Xavier Cooks is the thunder to Johnson’s lightening. He is a frail 6’8″ 185 pound guard but that doesn’t stop him from cleaning up the glass and blocking shots. He leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots by far. He is also an efficient shooter on the interior at 49%. Between Johnson and Cooks, they make up just about all of the points for the team. The imbalance that the team faces can pose a serious problem when going up against more well balanced opponents in the power conferences.

Cincinnati: Troy Caupain (10 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.6 apg)

Caupain has been a leader for the Bearcats since taking on the full role of point guard in his sophomore season. Now in his senior season, the Bearcats are in a good spot as a six seed and looking like the balanced program that they’ve been building up to become. However, Caupain’s number have taken a step back from previous seasons as he’s seen his free throw percentage drop from 78% to a mere 66% and his points per game are down from 13 ppg to 10 ppg. This hasn’t effected the success of the Bearcats though as they now have other players who can score around him. He is still a great facilitator and veteran leader on the floor. His presence will be key in their tournament run.

Honorable Mentions: Jacob Evans (13.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, .47 fg%, .72 ft%, .42 3pt%), Gary Clark (10.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 apg, .52 fg%, .70 ft%)

With Troy Caupain becoming more of a facilitator, sophomore guard Jacob Evans has stepped up to handle the scoring duties. He is leading the Bearcats in points per game and has been deadly from three this season. In four of his last five games, he’s shot 50% or better from three. Gary Clark does the dirty work for the Bearcats. The 6’8″ 225 pound junior forward leads the team in rebounds and blocks per game. His vision and footwork in the post allow him to score over the average defender. He provides great production on the offensive and defensive glass.

Wake Forest: John Collins (19 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg, .62 fg%, .73 ft%)

Collins is enjoying a very productive breakout season. He is playing twice the minutes he was last season and is averaging more than twice the amount of points/rebounds amounting in almost a double-double on average. This Wake Forest team is reaping the benefits of this development as they’ve become one of the most improved teams in the nation. The team went from 2-16 in the ACC last season to 9-9 and a trip to the First Four with a chance to make the field of 64. He is leading the team in points per game, rebounds per game, and blocks per game. His 62% shooting efficiency and 73% from the foul line makes him a solid well rounded player.

UCLA: Lonzo Ball (14.6 ppg, 6 rpg, 7.7 apg, 2 spg, .54 fg%, .41 3pt%)

Freshman guard Lonzo Ball went from high school phenom to one of the most captivating players in the country. His arrival at UCLA was largely unknown until they shot out of the gate with blowing out every team in their path and beating Kentucky on their home floor who have a couple young stars on their roster as well. Ball instantly became one of the most revered plays in the country and has been praised as a prodigy. He leads the country is assists per game and is also a proficient shooter. His great vision and feel for the game puts him head and shoulders above the rest. There have been doubters of his potential on the next level due to competition level among other things. Ball has the opportunity to silence those doubters by putting on a show in the tournament.

Honorable Mentions: TJ Leaf (16.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, .62 fg%, .71 ft%, .45 3 pt%), Bryce Alford (15.8 ppg, 2.6 apg, .45 fg%, .82 ft%, .43 3 pt%), Thomas Welsh (10.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, .58 fg%, .89 ft%)

This UCLA team has many weapons and scorers. This is something that some people may not realize as they are too focused on the spotlight that is cast on Lonzo Ball. Something else that people don’t realize is that some of this team’s best scoring comes from their big men.  That is where forward TJ Leaf and center Thomas Welsh come in. They are some of the most skilled big men that the college basketball has to offer. They can both shoot very well and can do their work from mid-range which pulls defenders away from the basket and opens up the lane for ball handlers to drive. Leaf is a great stretch player as he is very versatile. He can handle the ball and make good decisions with it as well as drive it to the rim. Welsh is an excellent spot up shooter and can hit open jumpers off the roll with ease. Bryce Alford is a veteran of this program. He’s been the lead ball handler for the Bruins for quite some time. Now in his senior season, Alford is joined by an elite caliber player in Lonzo Ball which has added an extra dimension to the back court. The way that UCLA spreads the floor makes them one of the most dynamic teams in the country.

Dayton: Scoochie Smith (14.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 1.5 spg, .46 fg%, .76 ft%)

Dayton has been a perennial power over the A10 conference. Their consistent success is both impressive and reputable. This is accredited  to coach Archie Miller and senior guard Scoochie Smith. He is a smaller guard but he can makes plays all over the floor. His superior vision and ball handling makes him a constant threat. Smith leads the team in steals and assists as well as being one of the team’s better free throw shooters. The fate of the Flyers in this tournament will be decided by the decision making of their senior Scoochie Smith.

Honorable Mentions: Charles Cooke (16 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3 apg, 1 bpg, .46 fg%, .70 ft%, .40 3pt%), Kendall Pollard (14 ppg, 5.1 rpg, .53 fg%)

The Flyers boast a veteran roster this season with several seniors in the starting lineup. These seniors have plenty of tournament experience and are battle tested. Guard Charles Cooke and forward Kendall Pollard are among them. Cooke is the team’s leading scorer and Pollard is the second leading scorer. They both share the team lead in rebounds. Cooke is an exceptional shooter and can also hit at a consistent clip from range while Pollard is a hard worker on the interior glass and can score in the paint. This Flyers team will have the advantage over other squad but will have to show up and play aggressively in every game.

Wichita State: Landry Shamet (11 ppg, 3.3 apg, .47 fg%, .81 ft%, .45 3pt%)

The Wichita State Shockers are one of those teams who have ten players on the roster who play over ten minutes per game. That’s usually seen as a good thing considering it means that the team can be successful without relying on the abilities of one player. The Shockers really don’t have just one player that stands out in particular but freshman guard Landry Shamet has certainly made his case as their most valuable player. He’s not going to beat you physically but pure skill as a basketball player really stand out. He is an efficient shooter at 47% from the field and 45% from three. He is also a good passer with just over three assists per game.

Honorable Mentions: Shaq Morris (9.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 bpg, .52 fg%, .81 ft%), Markis McDuffie (11.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, .47 fg%, .81 ft%)

Wichita State’s big men boast both size and skill. Sophomore forward Markis Duffie leads the team in points per game and junior center Shaq Morris is 6’8″ 265 pounds. Morris’ stats may not jump off the page but he does much more than what his numbers say. He is an aggressive rim protector who can shut down his opposition on defense. His size and basketball IQ make him one of the team’s greatest assets. His ability to make foul shots at a high rate makes more valuable than a majority of centers out there.

Kentucky: Malik Monk (20.4 ppg, 2.4 apg, .45 fg%, .82 ft%, .40 3pt%) & De’Aaron Fox (16 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.8 apg, .47 fg%, .73 ft%)

Another year equals another recruiting class chock-full of McDonald’s All American type players for John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats program. This season’s set of stars include guard Malik Monk, guard De’Aaron Fox, and forward Edrice Adebayo. Monk and Fox can beat their opponents by purely using their athleticism alone. Add efficient shooting and passing to that and you have NBA ready players. All of that is great but will that translate to NCAA Tournament success? These young players will have to put up consistent numbers while facing increasingly stronger veteran teams. Kentucky surely doesn’t lack the talent but their young players will be hard pressed as a two seed to produce results.

Honorable Mention: Edrice Adebayo (13.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg, .61 fg%)

Kentucky has had a bright past when it comes to producing big men. Abedayo is this year’s Kentucky big man and he is certainly looking the part. He leads the team in rebounds and is the team’s most efficient shooter. His 6’10” 260 pound frame makes him a powerful interior force. The skills that he possesses completes him as he has solid footwork and good touch off the glass.

Northern Kentucky: Drew McDonald (16.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .48 fg%, .73 ft%, .39 3pt%)

The Norse have made an improbable run to the tournament after winning the horizon league championship. This is very impressive as the horizon league includes perennial power Valparaiso and talented teams like Oakland and last years’ representative in Green Bay. This is largely due to Valpo’s star Alec Peters’ injury and Oaklands’ eventual collapse. However, the Norse are still just as strong of a competitor. The team has a 6’7″ 250 pound sophomore forward in Drew McDonald and he has been great this season. He has put up over 20 points in three of his last five games.

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Ohio State Basketball Draws Rutgers in B1G Tournament First Round

The 11th seed Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14) will start Big Ten Conference Tournament play by facing the last place Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-17) at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

The Buckeyes have struggled to make ends meet this season as they’ve stumbled to a 17-14 finish after starting with a 10-3 record out of the gate. They have played themselves into the first day of the Big Ten Tournament due to losing at home on senior day to an Indiana team who had lost six of their last seven games. This also snapped what could have been a three game winning streak which could have extended some momentum into the Big Ten Tournament. Out of the 351 teams playing in Division 1 men’s basketball, the Buckeyes have to be near the top as far as close losses go. The Bucks have lost over half of their games by about five points or less and a handful of those have been decided by one or two points. However, on the flip side of that is the Bucks have had pretty much all but one of their Big Ten wins decided by about five points or less. A large part of the Bucks’ demise this season has revolved around consistency (or lack thereof). Consistency is one thing that all teams strive to achieve. If a team can consistently play well then their odds of winning on a game to game basis is clearly going to be much higher. The major issue for the Bucks is that they had consistency but of the wrong kind. The Bucks became so accustomed to playing in close games that they didn’t know how to win otherwise. Match that with not knowing how to close out a game when it comes down to the last few possessions and the result is the tragedy that is the Bucks’ season. All in all, the Bucks didn’t necessarily lack talent but they did lack a good bit of consistency. However, there is an upside to this type of play. The Bucks were able to compete with just about every team they faced no matter who it was. Examples of this (ranks of teams at time of game) include a two point loss to #6 Virginia, a 13 point loss to #2 UCLA (game didn’t get out of hand until after two minutes left), a one point loss to #20 Purdue, a six point loss to #17 Maryland, and a ten point win over #16 Wisconsin. The Bucks held leads throughout a good portion of most of those games or were very close until a late game collapse. This attribute is what the Bucks have ultimately clung to as their results continued to return more L’s than W’s and it is also what has driven Buckeye fans crazy. With that being said, there is still light at the end of the tunnel. The Bucks still have an opportunity to make it to the NCAA Tournament but they’ll have to do it the hard way. They will have to win the Big Ten Tournament outright in order to get their ticket punched though it will be an uphill battle. Fortunately, the Bucks may be the only team in the bottom half of the bracket that has what it takes to climb to the top and win out. As I explained earlier, the Bucks have played close with and/or beaten just about all of the Big Ten’s top dogs so it’s definitely not out of the question for them to string a couple wins together. The Bucks have the talent on the roster and the coach to make it happen.  The only question is if they are willing to compete and be consistent. This team has seen it all and have been to their lowest point so they can only go up from here. It all starts with Rutgers.

The Buckeyes look to beat the Scarlet Knights for a second time this season as they topped them 70-64 at home when they met a month ago. As a team, the Bucks are averaging 73.3 points per game which ranks seventh in the Big Ten and their 46% field goal percentage ranks fifth. Their scoring defense ranks 113th in the country giving up 70 points per game. The Bucks have not won a Big Ten Tournament title since 2013 when Aaron Craft was the tournament’s most valuable player.

The Bucks feature four players who average double digit points per game. These players include junior forward Jae’Sean Tate (14.2 ppg), senior forward Marc Loving (12.5 ppg), sophomore guard JaQuan Lyle (11.6 ppg), and junior center Trevor Thompson (10.7 ppg). Other key contributors on this squad include sophomore guard C.J. Jackson who dishes out 2.8 assists per game, junior guard Kam Williams who adds 9.5 ppg and shoots 91% from the foul line, freshman forward Andre Wesson who provides good length on defense, and freshman center Micah Potter who adds 3.1 rebounds per game and valuable minutes in relief of Trevor Thompson. This team plays its best when everyone is doing their job. I know that sounds like an obvious point because every team operates at their best when everyone is involved but it is especially true when talking about this Buckeye basketball team. Looking at the roster from the perspective of someone who knows these players, one would think that this would be much more like a 20+ win team rather than a barely above .500 team. The problem is that you never know what you’re going to get out of this team on a nightly basis. Once again, this is where consistency comes into play. It’s gotten to the point that it is quite rare to see all of these players contribute their share in a single game. One night it’ll be Marc Loving going off for 24 points and the next night he will have 8 points. The same goes for just about every other player on the team except for Trevor Thompson. He is the only player who consistently gets his work done and is a constant key contributor. If one or two players are having an off night, somebody always has to go off in order to make up for the lost contributions. It’s just a constant cycle of all or nothing from the majority of these guys and it has cost them dearly. Kam Williams was the hero for the Bucks when they defeated Rutgers in the first meeting. He had 23 points while going 3-5 from three. Trevor Thompson also put up a great effort with 15 points and 13 boards while Jae’Sean Tate dished out four assists. JaQuan Lyle and C.J. Jackson did their best to throw the game away with eight combined turnovers but a Kam Williams three pointer late in the game saved them from defeat. The Buckeyes will have to put together a much better team effort in this meeting with the Scarlet Knights or the result could easily be a lot different.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights look to avenge their close loss to the Bucks last month. As a team, Rutgers is averaging 65.7 points per game which ranks them last in the Big Ten and their 41% field goal percentage ranks them last as well. Their scoring defense ranks 55th in the country giving up 67 points per game. The Scarlet Knights have never been to a Big Ten Championship. This team joined the Big Ten just a couple years ago in 2014. Their last conference tournament championship win came in 1989 when they won the Atlantic 10 Championship.

Rutgers has been a bottom feeder of the Big Ten conference since they joined in 2014. They are now playing with a new head coach in Steve Pikiell. Previous coach Eddie Jordan had only accumulated 29 wins over three seasons as head coach so Pikiell’s 14 wins is a step in the right direction. Rutgers has four players that average double digit points per game. These players include sophomore guard Corey Sanders (13 ppg), junior forward Deshawn Freeman (11.3 ppg), junior guard Nigel Johnson (10.7 ppg), and junior guard Mike Williams (10 ppg). 7’0″ senior center transfer C.J. Gettys anchors the team inside. He is the second in rebounds on the team with just over five per game and averages eight points per game. Fortunately for the Bucks, Rutgers has found a way to be marginally worse at free throw shooting than they are. Rutgers’ 62% free throw percentage makes Ohio State’s 69% look great. Players to look out for on this team are guard Corey Sanders and forward Deshawn Freeman. As a freshman, stand-out guard Corey Sanders was one of the lone bright spots on this Rutgers team. He is extremely quick and aggressive with the ball in his hands. His ability as a play maker and as a passer makes him a serious threat when on the court. He leads the team in assists and steals by far. However, he is also prone to turning the ball over. Now in his sophomore year, Sanders is looking to lead his team further than before as the team has improved around him. Forward Deshawn Freeman is another player to look out for. He is easily the best shooter on the team with a 43% three point percentage and 49% field goal percentage. He also leads the team in rebounds with eight per game and is a leader in blocks per game. His 6’7″ frame will be hard to stop. If the Bucks can remain vigilant on shutting down these two play makers, the rest should work out itself.

Most of the pressure is off now so the Bucks can just be themselves and give it all they have. The Bucks seem to play their best when nobody believes in them or gives them a shot so now they have their golden opportunity. However, it is imperative that the Bucks take this tournament one game at a time. It may sound silly but the only team that I am worried about them playing in this tournament is Rutgers. The Bucks have been known to play to their competition so I could easily see them looking ahead to playing Northwestern in the next game and not showing up to give it all they have against Rutgers. It was only a month ago that the Bucks were at home and tied with the Scarlet Knights with just a minute to go in the game. Rutgers finished their season with a win over a hot Illinois team while the Bucks lost at home to a floundering Indiana team on senior day so keep that in mind. It is key that the Bucks remain short sighted and only worry about themselves. Every game counts so it would be a shame for them to fall to a team like Rutgers when they have the potential to play with (or beat) the eventual winner of this conference tournament. With the Big Ten not having any teams that look clear-cut above the rest this season, the Buckeyes still have a chance to make some noise in the postseason.

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Why the Atlanta Falcons Are My Pick to Win Super Bowl LI

The suspense is beginning to build at an increasing rate with Super Bowl Sunday approaching in a few days.  Sports analysts all over the world have been busy making predictions and clawing for story lines to cover since the last seconds ticked off the clock in the conference championships.  Sports fans have been glued to their TV’s and social devices to follow along with the vast abundance of news spewing from every media outlet imaginable.  The market for this game will only expand from here.  The New England Patriots opened as a three point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons with the total points over/under set at 58 points which is the highest total ever set in Super Bowl history.

My pick to win Super Bowl LI is the Atlanta Falcons.  Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan have started to click at the perfect time.  With the Super Bowl approaching, Kyle Shanahan’s offense is firing on all cylinders and Dan Quinn has put an influence on this defense that makes them believe that they can accomplish anything.  Though this defense is young, they are playing some great football right now and have looked much more experienced than what their age tells us.  Many people are doubting this Falcons team as they are the underdog and are facing one of the most experienced teams when it comes to the postseason.  However, there are many things about this Falcons team that I consider to be winning formulas in this Super Bowl which I will explain in this article.

It’s all about perspective.  That’s really the kicker when people are analyzing a match up and making inferences on what will come of the game.  It really depends on whether you are biased toward certain teams and players or if you roll with the popular opinion that you hear spewing from the mouths of TV personalities on sports networks every day.  Yes, everyone is entitled to their own opinion but I think a lot of it is just a bunch of garbage.  This probably won’t be the last time that I criticize the popular media or media outlets in general.  It really does play a big part in the perception of the viewers leading up to a notable sporting event.  The story lines encompassing this Super Bowl are centered around the Patriots.  This was expected as the Patriots have been pretty much the best team in the NFL during the last decade or so.  Other headlines regarding the Patriots include the legendary Brady/Belichick combo and their quest for revenge against Goodell as well as achieving NFL history by getting their fifth ring.  That would be the most Super Bowl rings won by a quarterback and the most rings won by a head coach.  The media discussing Brady and Belichick in terms of being in the greatest of all time conversation is certainly driving the betting tickets through the roof in their favor.  However, I would like to say as a disclaimer that I do respect the Patriots, Belichick, and Brady so anything that I say against them is not in hatred.  The Patriots deserve a ton of respect for their successes in the postseason but that may not be enough to combat this loaded Falcons team.  It is not working in their favor that the media is hyping them up and not the Falcons.  Though I will say that the Falcons have been getting more talk as of late.  This is probably due to the fact that they couldn’t possibly conceal the Falcons’ arsenal of strengths for that long.  Another big topic of discussion has been the success of the Patriots’ defense this season.  Since the Broncos won with the #1 scoring defense last season everyone is flipping out about how the #1 defense wins championships against #1 offenses which makes them think that the Pats are even more of a lock to cruise to victory.  That statistic would be true as top defenses have had a track record of being successful in Super Bowls in the past but I would like for everyone to pause for a minute and recognize that nobody said a word about their defense before the playoffs.  Yes, they were successful but I still don’t think that they’re anywhere near as impressive as what the stat sheet displays.  The Pats are eighth overall in total defense and are near the middle of the pack in passing defense in terms of yards per game.  That differs greatly from the Broncos’ Super Bowl winning defense of last season that was the top total defense in the league and gave up the least amount of passing yards.  The Patriots’ defense is really nothing too special other than their schemes put their players in good position to make plays at key points.  What they do have is a good red zone defense which has been the key to their success in limiting their opponent’s points per game.  I am not sold on that alone being enough for the Patriots to win this game.  The topics of interest concerning the Falcons include people saying that Matt Ryan will fold because he hasn’t been successful in the playoffs, the defense will get shredded by Brady because it has too many rookies, and Julio Jones will get taken away which will cause the offense to fail.  I find all of these reasons to be absolutely ridiculous and downright ignorant.  Matt Ryan has been lights out in the playoffs so far and hasn’t shown a hint of slowing down.  He is laser focused and is not letting anything get to him.  I expect him to play the same way on Sunday.  The rookies on this defense aren’t just any rookies.  Keanu Neal and Deion Jones are in contention for the defensive rookie of the year award.  They developed pretty quickly as the season went on and are now playing their best ball leading up to this game.  This defense plays fast and hits hard.  If anyone stuck around and watched the whole NFC Championship game (during the blowout), then they would have seen the replays of Aaron Rodgers getting annihilated.  They run down hill and tackle through the ball carrier.  Deion Jones intercepted Russell Wilson in the divisional round.  There has been much improvement as they have shown up when the games have counted the most.  The Patriots have had a knack for shutting down the opposing team’s best offensive player.  This has worked well for them and a recent example of this would be in the AFC Championship when they shut down Antonio Brown.  This defense works well against teams that don’t have a variety of talent to compliment their best offensive player.  Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Falcons have like eight different talented offensive players.  Julio Jones is clearly the best of the bunch but there isn’t a huge drop off between him and the players around him.  In order to shut down Julio, it would take at least two defensive players covering him at any given time.  If the Patriots were to try and double team Julio, then there would be a major price to pay as Matt Ryan would just check to the open receiver for a big gain.  Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and others are all great players.  The Patriots will have their hands full on Sunday and shutting down Julio Jones will be the least of their worries.

This game feels similar to the NCAA National Championship game and the NBA Finals.  This kind of plays into what I was saying about media perspective.  Alabama and the Warriors were viewed as two unstoppable forces when they reached those games.  In the NCAA Championship game, all they talked about was Alabama’s history of being good, Saban, and that defense.  They seemed to mostly neglect the fact that Alabama was playing a 19 year old freshman quarterback in national championship game.  Clemson clearly had the better offense and their defense was solid too.  The talk was about how Deshaun Watson was interception prone and couldn’t hold up against the Alabama defense.  Yes, Watson threw interceptions against Ohio State but the Bucks also had one of the most turnover aggressive defenses in the NCAA.  Watson was a senior quarterback who had star receiver Mike Williams who will be one of the best receivers in this year’s draft class and a solid defense.  The game played out exactly the way I expected it to.  The Alabama running game got the job done and scored on a couple of big plays, freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t play very well and missed on a couple of key long balls, and the Clemson offense/defense came through.  It was the simple factors in this game that people who backed Alabama seemed to gloss right over.  As for comparing that game to the Super Bowl game, the Falcons offense compares well with the Clemson offense and Alabama’s coach Saban commands the same respect that Belichick does on their respective levels.  This game reminds me of the NBA Finals because the Warriors were an unstoppable force coming in with the record breaking 73-9 record, unanimous MVP, and a 3-1 lead.  The Cavaliers had received all kinds of criticism and was getting no support at all from any popular media personality.  Pretty much all of them picked the Warriors to win the series when it was time to pick a champion.  The Cavaliers went down 3-1 and it was pretty much confirmed that they had lost.  However, the Cavaliers defied all odds by storming back to tie up the series and bring it to game seven where they won on the Warriors’ home floor.  The odds for this Super Bowl are not near as far as the Cavs’ were in areas of their NBA Finals run but the point is that the Falcons are being doubted in the Super Bowl.  This will fire up the Falcons and give them what it takes to stick it to the people who didn’t believe in them.

I am not exactly sure why people are taking so much away from the Falcons’ victories in the playoffs leading up to this game.  I understand that the Seahawks were missing Earl Thomas and the Packers had plenty of injuries but it’s not like everybody was giving those excuses a ton of weight before the Falcons whipped them.  The Seahawks had looked very impressive in the win over the Lions in the Wild Card and the vast majority of people were still backing the Packers to make it a close game in Atlanta because they were still a pretty good team despite the injuries.  It seems like people will find any reason in the world to doubt the Falcons no matter how good they play.  So much so that there’s probably going to be a group of people trying to downplay the Falcons even if they win by the same margin in the Super Bowl.  I would also like to point out that the Falcons had a much more difficult road to the Super Bowl than the Patriots did.  The Falcons had to play Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers who are both top ten quarterbacks or better.  The Seahawks and the Packers are both great organizations who are almost always competitive no matter who they play.  The Falcons capturing easy double digit victories over those teams was impressive but somehow overlooked.  The Patriots got to play the pitiful Houston Texans and a Steelers team that struggles on the road.  The quarterbacks they played against were Brock Osweiler and Ben Roethlisberger.  Brock Osweiler can’t hit the side of a barn and was benched halfway through the regular season.  Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road and was missing Le’veon Bell.  The Steelers’ offense as a whole was overrated because Martavis Bryant was gone so they really didn’t have anyone else other than Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  During the regular season, the Falcons played a solid game against the Broncos in Denver.  Matt Ryan was efficient and had his way for the most part.  The Broncos had the fourth best total defense and the best passing defense.  The Falcons also went to Seattle and was just about a play away from beating them on their home field.  The Seahawks had only lost at home once all season.  Seattle had the fifth best total defense and the eighth best passing defense.  Matt Ryan was once again successful as he threw for 335 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.  The Falcons have been well tested this season and have proven that they can take on any team that stands in their way.  After going into Denver/Seattle and playing well, I am sure that they won’t be phased much when they meet the Patriots’ defense on Sunday.

One thing that stands out to me regarding this season’s playoffs is the success of teams with good quarterback play and efficient passing offenses.  As I observed the playoff slate getting smaller with teams getting eliminated each week, I began to pick up on a pattern.  The team with the better passing offense always won.  I also mixed this observation with stats like third down efficiency, pass yards per attempt, and turnover margin.  The team with the advantage in the majority of those stats always won the game.  That explains why the final four quarterbacks remaining were Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger.  The Falcons and the Patriots turned out to be the final teams remaining which corresponded to those statistics as both of these offenses rank near the top in each of those categories.  With that in mind, the forecast for this game is basically a wash as neither team has a clear advantage.  The Patriots have a better third down conversion percentage, the Falcons are better in team yards per pass attempt, and they are even when it comes to turnover margin.  If the Falcons end up winning the Super Bowl, I think that this will be a clear turning point in how great offense is going to be the face of football’s future.

Betting:  I don’t even feel like the spread is necessary in this game because I believe that the Falcons will win outright.  The Patriots being the three point favorite in the Super Bowl was what I expected when looking at this match up.  I think Vegas made them three point favorites solely because of the brand name.  Patriots, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick are powerful names to mention considering their history of dominance in the NFL.  I mean they did just win the Super Bowl two years ago, reached the AFC Championship for the sixth straight season, went 14-2 with Brady suspended for the first four games as well as playing without Gronk the whole season, and went 13-3 against the spread.  Being that great against the spread as the opening favorite to win the Super Bowl is a tough task.  The odds makers had to have been trying to make it more difficult for them to cover the spread as the season went on but the Patriots just kept covering.  That’s also a prime example of why betting against the Patriots isn’t something you should try at home.  Though the Pats have burnt Vegas against the spread all season as the public favorites, Vegas will finally get revenge and cash in big time on this trap line.  This spread line just looks way too suspicious to coincide with a Patriots victory.  It just looks like it is too good to be true.  There is no way that Vegas would put up such a cheap price on Patriots winning against a team like the Falcons.  They knew for sure that they’d get the majority of the public bets on the Patriots in this one by setting a line like that and would rack up some easy cash.  It’s either that or they’re just pulling my leg.  If Vegas really thought that the Patriots were going to win this game then they would have made them AT LEAST a 4.5 point favorite or more.  That way they would surely get some good action on the Falcons’ point spread and money line.  As for right now, the Falcons’ money line isn’t paying out very much at +125 which means that there is something fishy going on.  Vegas is fishing in the Patriots bettors’ pockets for that cold hard cash.  This is especially true considering that they took historic losses in the NCAA Football National Championship game when Clemson pulled off the upset over Alabama.  The spread in that game is somewhat similar to the one in this one.  Alabama was going to draw plenty of money regardless because it’s Alabama.  The Crimson Tide opened as seven point favorites over the Tigers.  That did seem pretty odd from the beginning though regardless of what you think about Bama.  Clemson was a great team as well and that opening spread was just disrespectful.  However, in some ways it did make sense considering Alabama was good against the spread during the season with a 10-5 against the spread record and Clemson wasn’t very good with their against the spread record being 8-7.  The opening spread number of seven is significant because it is a key number in football due to a touchdown and extra point equaling seven points so it made sense that they would choose that number instead of a five or six.  That is why the Patriots opened as a three point favorite instead of a two or four.  It’s a good starting point.  This NCAA Championship game was different than this Super Bowl game though due to the public consensus favorite difference and line movement.  Although Alabama opened as the heavy favorite in this game, the public consensus did not follow suit.  This was quite unexpected because the public historically loves to bet favorites but that was not the case in this one.  Clemson was a public favorite and accumulated a good number of their dollars.  This caused the spread to start moving toward Clemson and Vegas realized that they made a big mistake.  The sharp bettors (bettors who place very large wagers and are known for being on the correct side of the bet) hammered the Tigers as well which caused the spread to drop as low as six points before the game started.  Clemson ended up winning the game outright and Vegas got cleaned out.  I would also like to say that I benefited from this game as I cashed out a three figure bet on the Clemson Tigers.  At least it wasn’t the Super Bowl that they screwed up on.  Since I expected the public to immediately jump on the Patriots’ side and the sharps to likely take the Falcons’ side (as they did in the Falcons’ last two games), I expected to see some line movement.  I did notice some early movement indicators at the start of last week when the spread began moving in the Patriots’ favor.  This was expected because it was predictable that the early public money was going to come in on them so the sports books took the opportunity to tax them with expensive lines.  At one of its highest points, the Patriots were receiving over 70% of the bets.  The total amount of money bet on the Patriots was over 60% of the dollars as well.  With the betting so lopsided in the Patriots’ favor I expected the line to move off of three for at least just a little bit but it didn’t budge.  This lopsided betting went on for pretty much the whole first week and into the second.  The Patriots remained the three point favorite the whole time.  That is when I began to become even more confident in my original theory that the sharps were going to be on the Falcons.  Even though the sharps may not have thrown down the big money yet, it definitely seemed as though Vegas knew it was coming or something was going on to keep that number at three.  Sure enough, the spread price has started to move in the Falcons’ favor.  Just as expected.  Though the Patriots have accumulated the vast majority of total bets and still have the lead in total dollars, the line has remained at three.  I believe it is like this because of the amount of dollars that are being spent in each Falcons bet and the types of respectable bettors that are doing it.  Speaking of kinds of bettors, Floyd Mayweather may be known for throwing down big bucks when he bets on sports games but that doesn’t mean the sports books will move the spread lines because of it.  It’s not always about the money being bet, sometimes it’s about the gambler who is betting it.  The sports books don’t respect Mayweather as a great mind when it comes to gambling so he they won’t move the spread accordingly.  Mayweather might flash his winning tickets but he definitely loses some along the way.  Maybe more than just a few.  The line movement on last seasons Super Bowl was incredibly telling.  The Panthers opened as a five point favorite (there were a lot of deferring spread lines among sports books so five may not be consistent with the others).  This was well earned as the Panthers steamrolled their way to the Super Bowl.  However, this seemed pretty off considering the Broncos had just taken down the New England Patriots.  The Panthers’ near undefeated season and impressive playoff play mixed with the photogenic and outgoing MVP quarterback Cam Newton was enough to draw the public’s attention by storm.  Since the Patriots had already been eliminated, everyone assumed the road was clear as the Broncos featured a rundown Peyton Manning and an unspectacular offense.  Apparently people were quick to forget the defense wins championships.  With the immediate waterfall of money coming in on the Panthers, the sports books reacted quickly and moved the line back as far as making the Panthers a six point favorite at one time.  As Super Bowl Sunday drew closer the spread began creeping toward the Broncos at an increasing rate.  This was the sharp money moving in.  They sharps were placing huge bets on the spread and most importantly the money line.  The sports books had to react quickly in order to try and save themselves leading up to the game.  The Broncos ended up winning the game outright.  The lack of major line movement in this game is a bit concerning but in these circumstances I am still feeling good about where it’s at.

Breaking Down Why I Give the Advantage to the Falcons:

  1. The spread line looks suspicious.
  2. This game feels similar to when the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in the NBA finals and when Clemson beat Alabama.
  3. The Falcons’ defense will be much better than expected.
  4. The Falcons’ offense is truly superior over the Patriots’ offense.
  5. The Falcons’ lack of mistakes on offense will starve the Patriots of taking advantage of short field opportunities that weaker teams gave them in the past.
  6. The disrespect that the Falcons are receiving from the media as an underdog is fuel to the fire.
  7. The Falcons have been tested in the regular season.
  8. Matt Ryan will show up.
  9. The Falcons’ running game is underrated.
  10. The Patriots’ defense is overrated.

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Super Bowl LI: Falcons vs Patriots Facts and Analysis

Super Bowl LI will feature the NFC champion Atlanta Falcons and the AFC champion New England Patriots.  This contest will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

The arrival of February brings another opportunity for a team to compose their page in this chapter of Super Bowl history.  This is the Super Bowl.  One of America’s most popular sports (if not the most popular) being played at its highest level on the biggest stage.  This is the defining moment that these two exceptional teams have been playing for since day one.  Better yet, these players have been playing their whole lives for this moment.  It doesn’t stop at the players though.  Coaches and team management have been cycled in and out to prepare the perfect foundation for this moment.  Fans have waited their whole lives for this moment.  Millions of dollars have been spent to reach this moment.  Millions more have dreamed about this moment.  The difference between winning and losing could take just this moment.  The only thing that will be in the back of these players’ minds leading up to this game is, “Could this be my moment?”

On one side, there is the New England Patriots who have been here year in and year out.  On the other, the Atlanta Falcons are few and far between when it comes to late postseason experience.  Being a team that carries a wealth of experience beholds a great advantage especially in late game/season situations.  I have always believed that success in sports is closely tied to mental toughness which is also a product of experience.  However, experience and history can only go so far.  This is because the game is being played in the present.  All of the past credentials go out the window as soon as the competitors step on the gridiron.  It’s only how the teams decide to view/handle those credentials when preparing for the game that really matters.

This Super Bowl match up is quite interesting as it matches up the expected with the unexpected.  That can be largely attributed to media outlets leaving viewers in the dark while they focus on jabbering about flashy teams with big fan bases but that will be discussed elsewhere.  The New England Patriots have returned to the Super Bowl for the seventh time since 2001 and in those appearances they have won four rings.  The Atlanta Falcons have only been to the Super Bowl once before this season where they lost to the Broncos in 1998.  The disparity between these franchises, as far as Super Bowl appearances go, is certainly evident when comparing the two.  The Falcons have had seven different head coaches since that Super Bowl appearance in 1998.  The Patriots have had the same head coach since 2000.  The Falcons have been on and off as of recent with three straight playoff appearances between 2010 and 2012 including two division titles but now they finally get the opportunity to redeem themselves by making it back to the big dance for the first time since 1998.  So at this point, it’s basically been Super Bowl or bust for the Patriots as they’ve been there and done that as far as making the playoffs with eight straight appearances (one back from the NFL record for straight playoff appearances) and getting to the conference championship for the sixth straight season (NFL record).  Though, it may be worth noting that the team holding less appearances in this game has went 5-2 in the last seven Super Bowls.  As far as this season goes, the Patriots entered 2016 as one of the odds on favorites to win the championship (per usual) and the Falcons were located somewhere near the back end.  When I say back end I mean the area on the odds page where you have to scroll down and near the bottom is all of the teams that would make you hesitant to even throw a dollar or two on to win the Super Bowl because you’d find more value in the vending machine at lunchtime.  Well at least that’s what their odds look like in comparison to a team like the New England Patriots.  In a battle of two teams with distinct differences but copious similarities, I’m thinking Super Bowl LI will be as good as advertised and more.

New England Patriots

Have you ever gotten the feeling like you’ve seen the same movie too many times yet the filmmakers keep producing it in different forms?  Look no further than the New England Patriots as the NFL’s version of a broken record.  Their run of straight playoff appearances mixed with Super Bowl victories that are pretty closely knit is extremely impressive to put it lightly.  This team is led by head coach Bill Belichick.  He’s been the ring leader for this team (figuratively and literally) since 2001.  Many successful coaches come from rather humble beginnings but that was not necessarily the case for coach Belichick.  He was handed the keys to the team in the year 2000 where he began 5-11.  This is definitely not a formidable start by any standard but that’s not the point.  In just his second season, he coached that 5-11 team to a Super Bowl victory.  After that, he did not record a single losing season and only missed the playoffs twice.  Then there was Tom Brady.  He was the sixth round quarterback who went from the bench to Super Bowl champ in a year’s time.  How many other quarterbacks do you know that went three for three in the Super Bowl, achieved two Super Bowl MVP awards, and back to back Super Bowl wins in their first five seasons?  Brady is the Patriot’s 1B as Belichick is their 1A.  Or it could be the other way around.  Who knows?  In retrospect, it really doesn’t matter.  All that matters is that they win which is what they do consistently and consecutively.  In fact, they will be going for the NFL record that they’ve been chasing since the beginning: Five Super Bowl rings.  This would give Belichick the most Super Bowl wins as a coach in NFL history and Brady the most Super Bowl wins as a quarterback in NFL history.  With both of them already being considered as the greatest of all time in their respective positions then it would only make sense that they’d back it up with the rings.  To be honest, is it really the Super Bowl if it doesn’t involve Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?  A Super Bowl win on Sunday would also put them two championship wins away from the NFL record that is owned by the Pittsburgh Steelers who have seven.  The New England Patriots have been the cream of the crop in the NFL for the past decade or so and will be known as one of the greatest dynasties in football history.  Hate them or love them, you will always remember when the Patriots dominated the NFL.

Offense:  The Patriots have one of the most consistent offenses that can be seen in the NFL.  It’s truly a thing of beauty the way that it functions so smoothly year in and year out.  This offense has been ranked inside the top ten in every season since 2004.  They are ranked fourth this season.  Many people only see the points that go up on the scoreboard but they don’t see how this offense really makes it all happen.  They have the third highest scoring offense in the NFL.  When observing how it operates, look at the different formations and players that they use.  Most of the formations are catered to the types of players that are on the field to exploit mismatches in the defense.  This is true for the small/speedy guys they have and the big/heavy guys.  An example of this would be when they line up tight end Rob Gronkowski out wide and try to match him up with a smaller safety.  This makes for a huge mismatch because Gronkowski is much larger than almost any safety out there (okay maybe not Kam Chancellor) which makes it simple for Brady to pitch and catch for a big gain.  The Patriots could also make it simple and not care about where they line up Gronk, though, because he’s too fast for linebackers to cover him and too big for a defensive back.  Since Gronk is hurt, Martellus Bennett has served as a great fill-in for that spot because he’s also a big receiver who has some speed.  The Patriots may not possess the greatest running backs every season but they get the job done.  Who needs a running back these days anyway, right?  I know the Green Bay Packers can attest to that.  Remember that ‘Yu-Gi-Oh!’ card game where the most powerful character in the game was the monster called Exodia who needed all five cards that represented its limbs and head in order to use it?  That’s what I relate this season’s Patriots running back group to.  Their running back production is weak with just one or two of them but when you put them all together then you could have the best running back in the league.  That seems to be precisely what the Patriots envisioned when they picked out these running backs to supplement their game.  These backs aren’t big names as individuals so they don’t garner a ton of attention which means the team doesn’t have to sacrifice a lot of cap space in order to retain them.  The backs in this tandem each carry a specific set of skills that provide an extra dimension to this offense.  Legarrette Blount is the big back who runs between the tackles, picks up the tough yards, effective in short yardage/goal line situations, and softens up the interior while opening up play action for deep plays in the passing game.  Dion Lewis and James White are the pass catching backs who are also third down specialists.  They can be lined up anywhere on the field such as in the backfield, the slot, or out wide as a receiver.  They create mismatches because when the offense goes into their multi-receiver wide sets then defenses are forced to put linebackers on them in coverage.  As soon as Brady sees this, he loves to call go-routes to them (especially if it’s a slow or particularly inept pass coverage linebacker) and it’s an easy score.  This works well against defenses who are sloppy with swapping in the correct personnel or creating a scheme to audible into appropriate coverage to defend it.  The Patriots have taken three pieces of Le’Veon Bell and inserted them into their backfield.  It’s almost like Belichick is the modern day Victor Frankenstein.  That may or may not be a bit over the top but I’m happy with the comparison so we’ll move on.  Speaking of Patriots offensive players, the way they gather their personnel is truly special.  They always have a player that nobody has heard about who comes up with big plays in key moments.  I will take this opportunity to recognize the Seahawks for their ability to do this as well (even though they just picked up Jimmy Graham but let’s not act like the Pats haven’t gone for big players from time to time either).  Considering that Belichick is the team’s head coach AND general manager, he is able to have a good amount of power in who he brings in to play on his team.  They used Brady, Gronkowski, and now Edelman as their base and have picked up receivers and running backs around them to fill in the rest.  It’s almost like he’s a scavenger going through a scrap yard looking for a couple shiny pieces that other teams have glossed over.  This tactic works particularly well because teams will have a hard time game planning against their offense when they have to account for how the Pats will use these new pieces.  However, the Pats have had a history of picking up a few big name players to temporarily kick start their team like Randy Moss and Darrelle Revis.  The most recent example of the Patriots picking up scrap players comes in the form of Chris Hogan who just set the record for most receiving yards in a postseason game by an undrafted player during their AFC Championship win.  Julian Edelman has become a household name around New England with his performances and rapport with Brady over the years but he is also one of those guys.  Edelman was drafted in the seventh round out of Kent State in 2009.  He was actually a quarterback in college but Belichick clearly saw more in him than just the position he played.  At just 5’10”, he developed into on of the better receivers on the best team in the NFL.  Much like Brady and everyone else on this team, his competitiveness and moxie (as well as football intelligence) has made him a great player.  He is one of those gadget guys that the Patriots like to use because he is a play maker with the ball in his hands.  Punt returner, running back, receiver, and quarterback.  He can do it all.  All of this comes with a purpose though.  There are two rules of qualification to fit in this Pats offense: One is you must catch the ball if Brady decides to throw to you and two is you must be able to follow the offensive route book to a T.  The Patriots playbook must have at least a million pages in it because it seems like they are always running a bunch of wacky plays.  Most of these are disguise routes that can fool a defense which typically results in a receiver standing all alone in the end zone with the football once the play is over.  All I have to say about it is if you try to run a zone against this offense then you are going to be in for a long day.  I think the Steelers may have learned a thing or two from what happened to their zone last week (or 36 points worth of things).  It doesn’t matter which way you decide to analyze this Patriots offense, you’re most likely going end up off track.  As hard as it is to predict, it’s twice as hard to defend.

Defense:  When it comes to strong defenses, the Patriots haven’t exactly been known to fit in that category.  The offense has been the lone star on this team for quite some time and there’s good reasoning for that.  They have struggled on this side of the ball over the years where they have ranked in the back half of the league from 2010 through 2013.  However, the defense has quietly improved from 2014 into the present.  This defense has went from being in the lower half of the league to the top tier.  The Pats allow the least amount of points per game this season.  Every time I see that stat I really can’t believe that it’s true.  This development has left many people in a state of denial and has them asking, “What has changed?”  The suspension of Tom Brady seemed to have came at just the right time as the Pats defense rounded out to be the best that it’s been in about a decade.  Adversity has lit a match under this team and made it complete.  The adversity mixed with the criticism of being an underachieving defense on a great team has motivated this unit to become much stronger as a whole.  The Pats have been playing bottom tier offenses in the NFL this season as well as bum quarterbacks so the rise of this defense has been fanned a bit by the critics.  However, I would like to say that I don’t completely agree with the critics based on the fact that this is the NFL and these are all professionals.  I believe that strength of schedule should not be considered a big deal in professional sports because no matter who you’re playing, you’re still playing against the best of the best talent wise.  If the Patriots defense can play through their 16 game schedule and end with the best scoring defense and a top ten defense overall then I’d say that they’re pretty proven regardless of said competition.  I would possibly consider strength of schedule an excuse if we were talking about this in the first half of the season but since they’ve played all of their games then they have cemented their stats on the season and it should be respected as such.  Before I name any of the players, it’s time to pay respect to Pats defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.  It’s ridiculous how he has been cheated (anyone? no? okay) out of the tremendous amount of credit that he deserves for running this defense.  He should be largely credited for the revival of this defense in 2012 when he was named defensive coordinator.  Since he took that position, the Pats began to see some improvement on this side of the ball.  It began to peak in 2014 when the defense finally got good enough to vault the Pats to the next level.  Their defense went from seventh worst to thirteenth best in just two seasons.  They won the Super Bowl in that 2014 season which was a result of a goal line stand interception to end the game.  I’m not saying that it was all because of Matt Patricia that Malcolm Butler caught that miracle interception (which was most likely just the product of the Seahawks’ stupidity of getting greedy on the goal line and throwing it on a pick play instead of running it with Beast Mode so I guess they deserved to lose because pick plays are insanely cheap) but he definitely played a part in making that moment possible.  His defense has finally reached its final stages in this season where they have seen their improvements show on the stat sheet.  Top scoring defense, top ten in yards allowed, and top ten in red zone defense.  One thing that the Patriots have become famous for over the years is their ability to take what a team does best on offense and eliminate it.  This messes with the opposing offenses physically and mentally.  Physically, I mean that they actually do take away the opposing offense’s best option and make them look like a completely different team than they were the week before.  Mentally, the Pats defense’s reputation of doing this makes offenses get in their own heads too much and try to game plan differently than what they’ve gone with that has worked well for them during the season that they end up turning into a mess that is unrecognizable to a loyal fan of the victimized team.  Middle linebacker Dont’a Hightower has been the centerpiece of the defense for the past few years.  In fact, he won two national championships at Alabama and helped the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 2012.  It seems fitting that a player who helped Saban to two titles in college would get a spot in helping Belichick to a title as a professional.  Defensive end Trey Flowers has been a huge factor in the recent success of this defense.  His seven sacks leads the team by a large margin.  He was a fourth rounder out of the 2015 draft and has fit in well with this defense.  His presence bodes well with the loss of a Pro Bowl player in Jamie Collins.  The secondary of this team has to be one of their most notable assets.  Though they haven’t been great against the pass this season (12th in passing yards allowed), they have been playing a bit better as of late and can make a variety of plays on the field.  In fact, the top four tacklers on the team are defensive backs.  Yes, I realize this could be a result of teams having to pass against them more than they would against others but it’s still impressive nonetheless.  Malcolm Butler may not be a bona fide shut down corner but he can surely give your top receiver something to think about.  Logan Ryan is the team’s leading tackler.  Devin McCourty is a two time Pro Bowl player and has won a Super Bowl with this team.  This defense may have been underappreciated during the majority of this season but their statistical successes are now being recognized as a ‘X factor’ for the Patriots in Super Bowl LI.

Patriots’ Story Line:  It’s no secret what the big story was to begin this season.  The NFL’s prolonged investigation on Tom Brady regarding ‘Deflategate’ had finally reached a verdict.  The NFL suspended Brady for the first four games of this season.  Deflategate was spawned after Colts players accused the Patriots of tampering with the footballs by deflating them to Brady’s liking and giving the Patriots an unfair advantage when they routed the Colts by 38 points in the 2014 season’s AFC Championship game.  This all seemed pretty ridiculous considering the game wasn’t even close regardless of what kind of ball was being used.  It’s widely believed that Deflategate was mishandled by commissioner Roger Goodell and this belief seems to be fairly accurate.  The whole investigation was a bit shady with both sides being accused of omitting information from time to time and the media was strung out on who was right and who was wrong.  The Patriots are already a tough team to out as it is, now think about what it would be like if they had a chip on their shoulders.  The result was a 14-2 season even without Brady.  The Pats went 3-1 without Brady or even Gronk for that matter.  They were clearly on a mission to show the NFL and everybody else that they could win no matter what the circumstances were.  It’s easy to look back now and think that the Patriots might have had a rough start to the season and maybe struggled a bit considering the suspension of Brady but the adversity just made them stronger as a team.  I feel bad for all of those writers that chose to doubt the Patriots in spite of this.  Actually, on second thought I really don’t feel bad at all.  The Pats already had a successful season by silencing the doubters but they’re certainly not thinking about stopping now.  The revenge would be extra sweet if Brady could win the Super Bowl and get his NFL record fifth ring in the same season that he got suspended.  Goodell would have to personally congratulate Brady and hand him the trophy.

Atlanta Falcons

There’s a word for something that has qualities or abilities that may be developed and lead to future success.  That word is ‘potential’.  This can be applied to people, a group of people, an object, a business, etc.  That is precisely what I think of when I look at a team like the Atlanta Falcons.  Over the past decade or so, the Falcons have had a plethora of talent specifically on the offensive side of the ball.  This team has went through their highs and lows.  There really hasn’t been a middle ground.  The Falcons were either in the playoffs or almost completely irrelevant.  The appropriate place to start would be in 2008 which was Matt Ryan’s rookie year.  After a few lackluster seasons leading up to 2008, the Falcons decided they needed to draft a quarterback so they selected Matt Ryan with the third overall pick.  He turned out to be one of the better selections in that draft class as he went on to lead his team to the playoffs whilst finishing just outside the top ten in passing yards and winning offensive rookie of the year.  He had the assistance of All-Pro receiver Roddy White and the NFL’s runner-up in rushing yards in Michael Turner.  This was a nice base but they were looking for more.  After an early out in the playoffs, they acquired legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez.  Predictably, his stats took a step back in the first year arriving in Atlanta where the team finished 9-7.  The Falcons really started to turn up the heat in 2011 when they scooped up star receiver Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick out of Alabama.  The Falcons were in ‘win now’ mode and everybody knew it.  They had a top ten offense with one of the best tight ends to ever play the game in Tony Gonzalez, a top wide receiver in Roddy White, Matt Ryan was a top ten quarterback, Michael Turner has been a tested top ten running back, and they had just drafted an incredible young talent in Julio Jones. Unfortunately, the results didn’t show on the field come playoff time when they were blown out 24-2 by the Giants who went on to win Super Bowl XLVI.  They could have been a Super Bowl caliber team but nobody would have known it because the eventual Super Bowl champs ended their run before it even started.  This set the bar even higher for the Falcons in 2012.  It was playoff success or bust as they had their team personnel at a high enough level where at least a conference championship appearance should have been expected.  The team had been cut short for the second straight season in the playoffs and Gonzalez was running out of time while Roddy White was running out of prime.  They finished the season with the sixth ranked offense as they cruised to a 13-3 record with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This was looking like the year that the Falcons would final put it all together and allow the Atlanta faithful to rejoice in finally receiving the elusive Lombardi Trophy.  The Falcons finally made it back to the NFC Championship game.  They needed four playoff appearances to do so since they made it in 2004.  I’m sure this will bring back harsh memories for Falcons fans as they all remember this game far too well.  The Falcons led the 49ers 24-14 led at the half.  This included a 17-0 lead.  Things were looking up for them as they went into the locker room with good odds at making it to the Super Bowl.  However, there was still another 30 minutes to be played.  The 49ers’ defense clamped down and didn’t allow the Falcons to score again in the game.  The offense for the 49ers kept moving though and scored 14 unanswered points to end the game in a victory.  They would go on to blow a lead in the Super Bowl to the eventually championship Baltimore Ravens team.  That was the final dagger for the Falcons.  They put their best foot out there and still couldn’t bring it home.  Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White fell off not too long after this and they both eventually retired.  The common trend in these playoff failures?  They didn’t have a defense.  The Falcons carried a defense that was ranked worse than 20th in every one of those seasons.  They always say that offense wins in the regular season but defense wins when it counts.  This defeated Falcons team would go on to finish 4-12 in the next season and not reach .500 again until 2015.  It didn’t take too long for the Falcon’s ownership to realize that they need a change in team culture.  So as a result, they went out and hired former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.  This was the mastermind behind the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom Super Bowl winning defense.  He had experience and showed promise in leading a group of players.  Most importantly, he knew how to win.  When he was hired, I don’t think too many people looked at it twice.  It wasn’t a flashy or popular choice because he really wasn’t a big name pick up.  As it turned out, this was a perfect preface for their success.  They had a team that was rebuilding following the retirement of Gonzalez and White among others so they might as well bring in a new coach.  The team immediately saw success as they improved to 8-8 which included a 5-0 start and a victory over a previously undefeated Panthers team.  This was all a warm up to prepare for this season.  They knew they were capable of playing at a high level and just had to put it all together and that’s exactly what they did.  The draft went very well for the Falcons as they picked up some great talent.  Their transactions in the off season were great as well by parting with Roddy White, signing big Bengals receiver Mohamed Sanu, signing three time Pro Bowl Browns center Alex Mack, and claiming Browns receiver Taylor Gabriel off waivers.  The potential was present and was definitely something to get excited about.  The Falcons wasted no time duplicating the start they had last season by going 4-1.  Then the flashbacks from last season began to return for Falcons fans as they finished 6-4 before the bye.  They wouldn’t let this get them down though as they ended hot going 5-1 to end the season.  In just their second year of improvement/rebuilding with head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons are on their way to the Super Bowl.  Many say that it’s too soon and that this team is too young but Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn have been to the postseason before which gives them valuable experience in understanding what is needed to be successful.  The Falcons have rebuilt their team and it’s looking stronger than ever.  Will they capitalize on their potential?

Offense:  This unit can put points on the scoreboard in so many ways that it’s difficult to decide where to start when discussing it.  The Falcons have the highest scoring offense in the league.  Their 34 points per game makes them the highest scoring offense since Peyton Manning’s record breaking Broncos in 2013.  This offense scores points consistently and efficiently.  They rank second in total offense, third in passing yards, and fifth in rushing yards.  Efficiency wise, they rank first in yards per pass attempt, third in completion percentage, and sixth in third down conversion percentage.  This offense is led by their quarterback Matt Ryan.  He’s a four time Pro Bowl player and has been to the playoffs five times.  Ryan has had an up and down career but there’s no question that he possesses exceptional ability.  His consistency is what has been his downfall throughout his professional career.  That is something that he has patched up during this season.  He is enjoying one of his best seasons and the team’s success is reflecting it.  Unlike some of the other high scoring offenses in the past, this offense is highly sophisticated and finds ways to beat teams by using complex play calling and select personnel groupings.  This is where Kyle Shanahan comes in.  He has been the real story on this offense.  He signed on as the offensive coordinator with the Falcons in 2015 with the arrival of head coach Dan Quinn.  This was a quality signing for the Falcons as Shanahan has coached the Redskins’ offense to some productive seasons prior to this deal.  This offense wasn’t particularly struggling or anything but it was starting to look a bit stagnant.  Shanahan’s arrival improved the offense in his first season and has brought it to the league’s highest level in this season.  He has found ways to get all of his offensive personnel involved and utilizes schemes to get the best out of his players.  His spread offense has become virtually impossible to defend as zone defenses get turned into Swiss cheese with all of the holes the receivers sit in to exploit it and man-to-man defenses are countered with rub plays to get guys open in space in a hurry.  This is far and away better than the Atlanta offense that people were used to watching where Matt Ryan would sit back and lob the ball down the field to Julio Jones every play.  In fact, Matt Ryan has thrown touchdowns to thirteen different receivers this season.  Julio Jones has been targeted 129 times this season.  This may sound like a big number but that puts him at 19th in the NFL.  For being one of the league’s best receivers, that’s a pretty low target count.  It’s definitely a far cry from the amount of targets he’s had in the past few years.  He was targeted 203 times last season (most in the league) and 163 times in 2014 (third in the league).  Speaking of Julio Jones, he is the team’s greatest offensive asset.  He’s been in the top three in receiving yards since 2014.  He is a monster physically and athletically.  He’s a machine on the gridiron and literally plays like one too.  The way he runs is like one of those robot clones in the Terminator movies.  In other words, unstoppable and extremely fast.  Mix that with a 6’3″ 220 pound frame that can make acrobatic catches and the result is a match up nightmare.  Jones used to be the one man wrecking crew for the Falcons’ offense but they have filled in the positions around him with complimentary talent such as Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and others.  Mohamed Sanu is another receiver that has been great for the Falcons.  When he was signed in the off season, it originally looked like he was being overpaid and could be a bust.  Sanu turned out to be a great asset for the Falcons as he compiled four touchdowns and over 600 yards.  He’s another receiver who is a big target for Ryan as he is 6’2″ and 210 pounds.  Taylor Gabriel was a surprise pick up for the Falcons as he was signed off the waivers when the Browns cut him.  He’s a small but extremely fast receiver and can take the roof off of any defense.  The addition of Gabriel was perfect for this offense because it provided them with a legitimate deep threat other than Jones.  This allowed the Falcons to utilize Jones more often in the middle of the field and on possession plays.  This offense also doesn’t hold back when it comes to getting the running backs and tight ends involved.  It adds even more receivers to the mix so Matt Ryan never runs out of viable options.  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have been the dynamic duo of the year.  At first, it seemed like a position battle between the two for the starting job but it turned out that Shanahan had plans to use them both.  The use of the dual running back system can be a thing of beauty when done properly.  Freeman and Coleman were developed into backs who could run the ball and catch the ball even better.  Freeman still carries most of the load when it comes to touches but Coleman provides valuable snaps when he is on the field.  They are both explosive with the ball in their hands and can score at any given time.  These backs can be lined up in the backfield or out in space and run routes.  That’s incredibly difficult to guard if you’re forced to play man coverage using a linebacker.  Austin Hooper and Levine Toilolo are the tight ends.  Though they are not used often, they are very effective.  They are big targets and are great in red zone/short yardage situations when the team needs a catch in traffic.  This offense is incredibly talented from top to bottom and has the opportunity to cash in when they play on the league’s biggest stage.

Defense:  One of the most unfortunate things about life is that most positives almost always come with some negatives.  That is exactly what the case is for the Atlanta Falcons.  They have such a spectacular offense in every facet possible but their defense doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain.  The Falcons are ranked 25th in total defense, 28th in scoring defense, 28th in passing defense, and 17th in rushing defense.  The only reason the rushing defense isn’t worse is probably because teams have to resort to passing the ball against them because they get so far behind due to the high powered Falcons offense.  This same excuse could be used to defend the Falcons’ passing defense but you get the point.  Statistically, this Falcons defense is pretty bad.  I’m not here to completely defend the skill of this Falcons defense and say they are actually great or anything either but they may not be as bad as what people take them for.  This defense is full of young players and is comprised of four rookies.  They got off to a bit of a rough start to the season but have progressed since then.  Before the bye, the Falcons had given up 27 points per game which would be ranked fourth worst in the league.  After the bye, they only gave up about 21 points per game which would almost push them into the top ten.  Yes, the back end of their schedule was far from impressive but there was definite improvement as these young players developed.  In the playoffs, the Falcons held the Seahawks to 10 points in the first half and twenty total points on the game.  Not impressed yet?  This Falcons defense shut out Aaron Rodgers in the first half of the NFC Championship game.  Yes, the Packers missed a field goal and fumbled on the goal line but it’s still pretty impressive how this defense has stepped up.  Those were two of the top ten quarterbacks this season playing from behind in a playoff game and still couldn’t put up the points they needed to in order to make the games competitive.  The Falcons have recorded five sacks in this postseason which is the third most.  They have also only allowed twelve more yards per game in the postseason than the Patriot have.  Outside linebacker Vic Beasley has been a major factor in the Falcons’ success this season.  With the rest of the defense was in the early stages of development, Beasley turned into a quarterback sacking machine.  He racked up a league leading 15.5 sacks in just his second season as a pro.  His 6’3″ 246 pound frame and endless motor makes him an edge rusher that is incredibly difficult to stop.  The rookies Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and Brian Poole have played a significant part on this team as well.  Linebacker Deion Jones leads the team in tackles and interceptions (3).  Keanu Neal isn’t far behind with just two less tackles.  Brian Poole and De’Vondre Campbell have played above their game as middle of the field defenders.  They each have recorded an interception.  Third-year safety Ricardo Allen has two interceptions in this postseason.  I’m not sure if people are aware but Dwight Freeney is still playing in the NFL.  He is a Super Bowl champion and has been selected to seven Pro Bowls.  At 36 years old, he may not provide too much as a player on the field for this defense but he is a great asset as an experienced leader in the locker room.  The fact that this defense is still so young is a positive sign for them considering Dan Quinn is a defensive minded coach and was the man behind the controls of Seattle’s Legion of Boom.  He has a plan for this defense and the only way to go from here is up.  This defense has been heavily criticized all season and will come into this game with something to prove.

Falcons’ Story Line:  Underrated would be an adequate word to use when describing this team.  Or are they overrated?  The variety of opinions on this team has been like a roller coaster since the beginning of 2015.  Their 5-0 start to the 2015 season began bringing attention to the Falcons as they were one of the most surprisingly successful teams of that time.  Nobody really knew much about them but they saw the 5-0 record and were intrigued.  As it turned out, the people who began buying in to what was once a lowly team below .500 in the previous seasons finally becoming successful were greatly disappointed as the Falcons lost every game but three to finish the year.  That would be the definition of overrated.  This set up perfectly for the doubters to come out in full force when the Falcons began this season 4-1.  It was widely believed that the Falcons were once again overrated and were bound to bottom out sooner or later.  The media was on the same boat as they didn’t report a single word about their successes.  They were much too worried about the Dak/Zeke Cowboys and the Wentz Eagles.  I will give it to them, the Falcons did end up falling apart a bit after that hot start by going into the bye 6-4 which once again made them ‘overrated’.  They came out of the bye even hotter than in the beginning by hanging 38 on the Cardinals and finishing the season 5-1.  They would end the season as the champs of the NFC South at 11-5.  With this, the media neglected to give them any credit and wrote them off as the NFC South team that sneaked into the playoffs just like everyone else because the NFC South is trash.  The part about the NFC South being trash may be true but the wide belief that the Falcons weren’t a worthy playoff team was false.  This would now make them ‘underrated’.  Their underrated stamp came at the perfect time as the playoffs were under way.  With initial expectations lowered, it made it possible for the Falcons to play with a chip on their shoulder and prove that their record was better than what people gave them credit for.  The Falcons routed the Seahawks in the divisional round 36-20 which felt more like 45-10.  Again, the Falcons were doubted as the media blamed the Seahawks for being on the downturn rather than highlighting the Falcons for displaying a very impressive performance.  But of course, the cameras were fine tuned on the Cowboys vs Packers game where everyone drooled over Aaron Rodgers the whole week following his victory.  Rodgers’ performance was indeed worthy of all of that because he did pretty much win the game all by himself and made throws that made me wonder if he is even human.  It was extremely impressive but I still believe the Falcons deserved more credit especially when matching up against the Packers.  Rodgers was basically the only player on his team that was in full health leading up to the match up.  Even with that in mind, Vegas made the Falcons just a four point favorite over them and the media had the gall to think that the Packers still stood a chance.  Mind you that this game was also on the Falcons’ home field.  However, considering that everyone and their mother was touting Rodgers as the greatest quarterback of all time after he barely beat a rookie quarterback and a Cowboys defense then I guess it was reasonable to believe that they stood a good chance.  That’s what everyone thought at least.  Meanwhile, the Falcons were enjoying all of this in silence as they prepared to dismantle the Packers’ injury muddled mess.  The Falcons went on to win 44-21.  In other great news for the Falcons, the Patriots were playing the Steelers that night.  The result of that game was the Steelers receiving a traditional tail whipping by the Patriots who did their usual routine of outsmarting them in every way possible while making the them look like fools in the process.  As a result, everyone is drooling over the Patriots now and the Falcons are being discredited once again.  As what so predictably happened, everyone blamed the Packers’ injuries for why they got slaughtered on Sunday.  Obviously that has some truth to it but it seemed apparent that the result was going to be relatively similar even if they were a bit healthier.  The Falcons are now in position to be the lesser appreciated team once again as they have been all season.  This has to be the most underrated team to score 80 points in two playoff games.

What I Expect:

  1. I expect the Falcons to find plenty of success on offense.  Everybody still seems to think that the Patriots are going to sell out on shutting down Julio Jones.  I do tip my hat to the Patriots keeping Antonio Brown quiet in the AFC Championship but that was only because they were able to focus all of their efforts on him alone.  This was possible due to the Steelers really not having any other viable options with Martavis Bryant suspended and Le’Veon Bell hurt.  The Falcons have plenty of weapons other than Julio Jones at their disposal so it will be difficult to focus everything on one guy.  I think the Patriots will actually attempt to sell out on stopping the run and will send extra pass rushers to put more pressure on Matt Ryan.  This is the Patriots’ only hope because if Ryan is able to get enough time in the pocket then their defense is going to get shredded.  They also don’t want the Falcons running the ball either because their ground game is just as dangerous with Freeman and Coleman.
  2. I expect the Patriots to have more difficulty throwing the ball in this game than they did against the Steelers.  Simply put, the Falcons will not run the same defense that the Steelers ran in the AFC Championship.  I am not exactly sure what the Steelers did with their defense to prepare for that game but it must have involved leaving receivers wide open in hopes that they wouldn’t catch it.  That was one of the most incompetent displays of defense in a conference championship game that I have seen.  It was disappointing as I expected them to have more in store when they showed up to this game.  The Patriots just called up play after play for the receivers to just sit down in the zone and it was pitch and catch for Brady.  Then when the Steelers decided to clamp down on those short chunk routes, Brady would torch them over the top for a wide open touchdown.  As bad as this Falcons pass defense has been during this season, I would be pleasantly surprised if the Falcons’ defensive backs and schemes get lit up as bad as the Steelers did.
  3. I expect the Patriots to take a more run heavy approach.  One thing you don’t want to do when playing against the Falcons is get into a shootout with them.  The Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offense and is not the type that you would want to trade shots with.  Look for the Pats to finally unleash Legarrette Blount in this game as they try to set the pace early by chewing up the clock and keeping the Falcons’ high powered offense off the field.
  4. I expect the Falcons’ linebackers to be the ‘X factor’ in this game.  The Falcons’ linebacker group is very inexperienced as it features two rookies and second-year starter Vic Beasley.  However, these young players can play ball.  Beasley led the league in sacks, Deion Jones led the team in tackles and had four interceptions including one in the postseason, and De’Vondre Campbell is tied for team lead in tackles for loss and had an interception in the regular season.  The Patriots will be looking to get their short passing game going early and often to test the middle of the field in front of these linebackers so it is imperative that they stay active in pass coverage.  In order to win this game, the Falcons will also need to get a consistent pass rush going.  This will be crucial for the linebackers as they need to get in Brady’s face quickly and get hits on him.  The Texans were relatively successful in getting in Brady’s face in the divisional round which caused him to be off his game and throw two picks.
  5. I expect the Falcons’ defense to be better than advertised.  This unit has actually played pretty well during the playoffs.  This is especially true when it came to getting to the quarterback and closing on receivers.  When observing this defense over the past two games, I did not notice very many sloppy plays or times where the opposing offense capitalized off a blown coverage.  They have also been getting to the quarterback much more frequently than what they get credit for.  Aaron Rodgers took some huge hits in the NFC Championship game and Russell Wilson didn’t have it much easier.  Those two quarterbacks are also some of the most elusive passers in the league.  There is more to this defense than what shows up on the stat sheet.  This defense has been playing fast, confident, and inspired in this final stretch.  Dan Quinn has some great experience from when he was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks including a Super Bowl victory led by a dominant defense.
  6. I expect the turnover battle to be a major factor in this game.  This is especially important for the Falcons offense.  The Falcons have done a great job this season in reducing their turnovers.  Matt Ryan has had one of the best seasons of his career in terms of taking care of the ball.  The Patriots have made a living off capitalizing on other team’s mistakes.  Both of these teams are extremely efficient on offense so a mistake could mean the difference between a win and a loss in this game.  Whichever team comes out with the least amount of turnovers will most likely be the one holding the Lombardi Trophy.

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AFC Championship: What You Need to Know About the Steelers @ Patriots

The third seeded Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Foxborough on Sunday to do battle with the first seeded New England Patriots for ownership of the AFC title and a spot in Super Bowl LI.  Pittsburgh is 11-5 and New England is 14-2.

Nearing the end of the long road to the Super Bowl, it all comes down to this.  This is the AFC Championship where many great teams have advanced in triumph while others equally as great have experienced the pain of defeat.  Each competitor enters this game knowing they have just 60 minutes of football remaining between them and a chance at the title.  So close but yet so far.  Now that it’s down to these two exceptional teams who have seen more than a fair share of playoff appearances…  it’s time to find out who competes for a ring and who is here just for show.

This match up is one of destiny.  The Steelers and the Patriots are meeting up at the highest level in the AFC conference championship.  We’re talking about two teams who are among the most storied franchises in the history of the NFL.  It’s amazing how these teams have went so long without meeting in the playoffs for how good they’ve been.  The last time the Steelers matched up with the Patriots in the playoffs was in 2004 when the Pats won 41-27 in the conference championship in Pittsburgh and then went on to win Super Bowl XXXIX.  So after a little over a decade of these two teams making noise in the AFC playoffs but managing to avoid each other, they finally get to meet again.  Though, in some ways I view this long separation as a positive.  The Steelers have been either injured, too old (one of the oldest teams through 2013), or suffered from other issues.  A rematch of that 2004 conference championship while playing through those conditions would have been a bit anti-climactic.  Now, the Steelers are finally right where they want to be just in time for a late postseason run.  On the other side, the Patriots have been dealing with the loss of one of the league’s best players in tight end Rob Gronkowski.  His absence hasn’t phased the mighty Patriots though as their team is as resilient as any I’ve seen.  This is a very intriguing match up and should be a good one so without further ado let’s get to breaking it down.

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs for the eighth straight time.  If it wasn’t for Brady not playing due to injury and unfortunate circumstances causing the 11-5 team in 2008 to miss the playoffs, they would have smashed the league record for the longest streak of playoff appearances with 14 (Cowboys and Colts tied with record nine straight playoff appearances).  The Patriots and the Packers currently hold the longest active playoff appearances streak with eight.  New England also holds the lead in consecutive seasons with a playoff win.  The Patriots have now been to the AFC Championship for the sixth straight season which is a new NFL record.  Three time AP NFL Coach of the Year and six time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick is the man behind the controls of this operation.  Since he took over in New England in 2000, he’s guided the Pats to four Super Bowl wins on six total appearances.  Belichick’s 24 playoff wins are the most of any coach in NFL history.  In his tenure with the Patriots, he has not had a losing season since his debut in 2000 where he went 5-11.  Belichick isn’t just a great coach, he’s an interesting character as well.  Aside from making his media appearances as painful as possible, he handles his business in a distinct way.  He’s never been a man of great emotion but there’s just something about him that affects the emotions of others around him.  He built this team entirely from his vision.  Every player that was given the opportunity to be on this roster was hand picked and knows what is expected.  If a player repeatedly makes errors on the field or starts to go their own way, he will not hesitate to move on to somebody else who is more willing to follow orders and carry out the game plan.  His ability to guide the Patriots to the playoffs season after season with lesser known players in the supporting cast is great.  The keen ability to formulate his game plan against any team’s strength on a weekly basis is unique.  Though we may never be able to fully understand his methods, his results will continue to tell the story.  This team isn’t lacking on any surface in their immaculate resume.

Offense:  In the NFL, there are many unknowns when entering the regular season slate after a long off season.  Players are moving from roster to roster, coaching positions change, suspensions are handed down, and injuries occur.  However, there is one thing that everyone can always count on which is the success of the Patriots offense.  They have been within the top ten in total offense in every season since 2004.  This is due to the dawn of the Brady/Belichick era.  Superstar quarterback Tom Brady is at the helm of this exemplar of consistency that is the New England offense.  His resume parallels that of head coach Bill Belichick because they basically came as a package deal.  Brady was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft in 2000 which was the same year that Belichick signed on.  One of Brady’s many achievements as a Patriot began with setting an NFL record by not throwing an interception in his first 162 pass attempts.  In his first full season as the starter, he won the Super Bowl and was the game’s MVP.  Brady got hurt in the first game of 2008 and was out for the rest of the season and they still finished in the top five in total offense.  This season, Brady was finally hit with a suspension that stemmed from the ‘Deflate Gate’ scandal that was brought up after the Patriots beat the Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship in the 2014 season.  Brady was suspended four games to begin this 2016 season.  Sure enough, the Patriots went 3-1 in his absence.  Anyone foolish enough to doubt this team under any circumstance was quickly reminded that this is a bit more than a one man show.  Brady proceeded to throw for 3,554 yards and 28 touchdowns in 12 games.  His 28 touchdowns this season is tied for seventh and his 67.4% completion rate is fourth best among quarterbacks.  The other key cog to this offense’s long term success is star tight end Rob Gronkowski.  He and Brady are among the few players that Belichick has made a full effort to keep.  They are the base of this team while most of the other pieces are merely musical chairs.  For each season that he’s been healthy, Gronk has been one of the most (if not the most) productive tight ends in the last couple of years.  In 2011, he set an NFL record for receiving touchdowns with 17 and receiving yards with 1,327 by a tight end.  He was also the first tight end to lead any receiver in touchdowns in a season.  That was just his second season in the NFL after being drafted in the second round in 2010.  With that being said, the Patriots’ 3-1 start to this season was also achieved in the absence of Gronk.  He was being held out because of “injury” but it’s starting to look more like the Patriots were trying to make a statement to all of the teams in the NFL and the administration that they don’t even need their two best players to be an exceptional team.  Given the first four games weren’t incredibly difficult, it is still impressive that they pulled it off.  Receiver Julian Edelman is another player on this team that Belichick and Brady have grown to trust.  Since he was drafted in the seventh round in 2009, he’s been a major factor in their success.  His ability to influence the game on offense and on special teams has made him a x-factor in many match ups.  He’s a competitive play maker who can work from any position on the field including quarterback (he played in high school and college before switching positions with the Patriots).  Edelman’s 98 receptions for 1,106 yards led the team this season.  There are also some new faces in this receiving corps to begin the season in Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett.  Hogan was a receiver for the Buffalo Bills in 2015.  The Patriots offered him a contract in 2016 so he took the offer and the Bills let him go as they did not match it.  He turned out to be a great addition to the roster as he finished third on the team in receiving yards with 680.  He gives the Patriots another great route runner with good hands and great speed to stretch the field.  The Bears traded Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett to the Patriots in the off season.  This originally looked like an odd move because they already had Gronkowski but it was also a great value so why not.  The Patriots looked like they were set to go back to their all too successful two tight end offense.  As it turned out, obtaining Bennett was in perfect timing because he filled in nicely for the injured Gronk during this season.  Bennett’s 55 receptions for 701 yards were second on the team.  He led the team in receiving touchdowns with seven.  He is a physical receiver who is also a great blocker.  His size and speed make him a mismatch for defenses much like fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski.  Running backs LeGarrette Blount, James White, and Dion Lewis make up the backfield of this offense.  Blount is the leading rusher with 1161 yards and 18 touchdowns on 299 rushes.  He averaged 3.9 yards per carry.  His bruising running style between the tackles and surprisingly shifty feet for his size (6’0″ 250 lbs) make him very tough to take down.  He clearly has a nose for the end zone as his 18 rushing touchdowns led the league.  The Patriots ranked seventh in the league in rushing yards per game.  People tend to think that this team is all about the pass but their run game checks out just as good.  James White and Dion Lewis make up the other half of the backfield by handling the pass catching duties.  The Patriots offense use their running backs extensively in the passing game by either going to them out of the backfield in the flats or by lining them up out wide as receivers.  This is particularly useful because it creates mismatches with linebackers having to line up on them out in space.  Brady will often exploit these mismatches and make defenses pay dearly.  White was the main back-receiver for Brady during the season due to Lewis missing just about all of 2016 with an injury.  As the starter, White made the most of it by being the fourth leading receiver with 551 yards.  He is second on the team with five receiving touchdowns and 60 receptions.  After going to White for a good part of the season, the Patriots have finally unleashed Lewis in the postseason.  He became the first player in NFL history to record a kick return, reception, and rush for a touchdown in a playoff game.  The scariest thing about this offense is that they can feature any one of these guy in any given game.  This multi-faceted offense is nearly impossible to guard when they’re at full strength but they’re also just as dangerous and unpredictable when undermanned.

Defense:  This part of the Patriots’ game always gets overlooked.  Yes, the offense is most definitely the area to marvel at when observing this team but what has quietly kept the ball rolling for them is their defense.  This has been especially true for the last two seasons.  This season, they rank eighth in total defense which is the highest they’ve been since they were fourth in 2007.  They allow the least amount of points per game at 15.6 and are the third ranked rushing defense by only allowing 88.6 yards per game.  The most interesting part about this defensive unit is the fact that it really doesn’t contain a bevy of star players.  An argument can be made for players like Malcolm Butler or Dont’a Hightower but those players weren’t necessarily stars previously in their own light.  They all play well as a unit.  This makes it difficult for opposing offenses to pick out soft spots to target.  Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is a great defensive mind in terms of schemes and strategy.  The unique part about this defense is that it isn’t geared toward any specific style of play.  Each week, it is remolded to counter the offense that they are going up against.  Whether it be the pass-heavy Saints or the run-heavy Cowboys, they will be well prepared for anything that is thrown at them.  Pro Bowl (2015) cornerback Malcolm Butler is a leader on this defense.  His four interceptions puts him three spots behind the league leader who has seven.  After stealing the show in New England’s 2014 Super Bowl win by intercepting Russell Wilson’s pass on the goal line to seal the game, Butler has become a standout corner in the league and has continued to impress.  Cornerback Logan Ryan leads the team with 92 total tackles including 74 solos.  He also has two picks.  Defensive backs Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty are just behind in second and third with 91 and 83 tackles respectively.  That is another thing that is underappreciated about the Patriots is the strength of their secondary.  They are a pretty solid group and may not get enough credit due to the fact that teams do rack up some yards against them because they’re passing all over the place in order to attempt to keep up with the Patriots’ offense.  Their passing defense is ranked twelfth in the league.  This may not be the best defense that this league has to offer but it is a well rounded group that should not be underestimated.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers return to the playoffs for the fifth time in eight years.  They have now made the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.  This is the fourth continuous season that the Steelers have began in the Wild Card.  Pittsburgh is one of those few teams that draw little surprise when their name appears in the playoff bracket.  Their long history of success on the gridiron has drawn a plethora of fans from around the nation.  The Steelers’ league leading six Super Bowl wins has brought pride and joy to the steel city.  Many legendary players and coaches have came through this franchise and will be remembered for their numerous accomplishments.  This includes Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Chuck Noll who won their first four Super Bowls in a six season span in the 1970’s and Pittsburgh Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Bill Cowher who won one of the more recent Super Bowls in 2005.  Soon after winning the title in 2005, Bill Cowher retired and gave way to current coach Mike Tomlin.  In just his second year in charge, Tomlin won Super Bowl XLIII in the 2008 season.  Now in his tenth season, Tomlin has been to the playoffs seven times and has never finished below .500.  His competitive nature and highly animated personality on and off the field has made Tomlin one of the most significant coaches in the league.  He has received criticism over the years for how he manages his players but in the end the results have always been positive.  Tomlin has carried on the Steelers’ traditional physical playing style on both sides of the ball but has seen his offense to taking things to the next level.  The Steelers have built one of the league’s most talented offenses that is more than up to par with the fast paced playing style of the modern era.  This team has had the experience to compete with any team but has now added the speed and energy necessary to go further than before.

Offense:  There has always been one static variable when it comes to offense in Pittsburgh and that is the ability to run the ball.  The physically punishing running backs that have dominated on this team like Jerome Bettis have given way to a dual threat greased lightning phenom in Le’Veon Bell.  The Steelers drafted Bell in the second round in 2013.  Since then, he’s been selected to two Pro Bowls and was AFC co-Offensive player of the Year in 2014.  He was most likely on his way to his second Pro Bowl last season but his season was cut short when a Bengals player hit him out of bounds causing him to injure his leg.  Since finishing seventeenth in total yards in his rookie season, he has finished in the top three in total yards in each season he has been healthy.  His average of almost five yards per carry has been in the top three for the last three seasons.  He finished fifth in the league in rushing yards with 1,268 yards.  For being 6’1″and 225 lbs, he is incredibly quick and athletic for a running back.  His patience and vision as a runner is truly one of a kind.  Not only can he carry the ball out of the backfield at an extremely high level, he is also one of the most prolific pass catching backs in the game.  He has great hands for a running back and also runs sharp routes as a receiver.  It is almost impossible to guard him in the open field.  His 616 receiving yards was good for 28th in the league.  With these stats considered, he acquired all of them without playing a quarter of this season.  The NFL suspended him for the first four games for violating the league’s substance policy.  Imagine if he were to have played in every game.  Speaking of impossible to guard, the Steelers have arguably the best receiver in the league on their roster in Antonio Brown.  He was a sixth round pick in the 2010 NFL draft.  Brown spent his first few seasons as a Steeler by mainly contributing as a special teams specialist at kick returner and was a part time receiver where he put up modest numbers nonetheless.  This all changed in 2013 when he turned it up multiple levels and became the second leading receiver in the league in terms of receptions and yardage.  From there he didn’t look back as he led the league in yardage and receptions in 2014 and has been in the top two ever since.  He is not a very large receiver with measurements of 5’10” and 180 lbs but he definitely makes up for it with his sharp route running, breakaway speed, and sure hands.  He is a five time Pro Bowl selection and was the NFL’s leader in receiving yards in 2014.  With that being said, there is no question that the lead man on this offense has always been quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  Since he was drafted out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004 in the first round, he has led the Steelers to two Super Bowl wins and has been selected to five Pro Bowls.  He won Offensive Rookie of the Year and won a Super Bowl in just his second season as a pro.  His massive stature (6’5″ 240 lbs) has made him easily one of the toughest quarterbacks to take down.  The ability to shake off defenders and make passes with opposing players hanging on him has made him a dangerous competitor.  He is also not one to suffer long absences from injuries.  It’s amazing how he can get back on the field in such little time after suffering an injury that would put most other quarterbacks on the sideline for good.  After finishing with the second most passing yards in 2014, Big Ben’s numbers have trailed off quite a bit.  He finished fourteenth in 2015 and seventeenth this season.  However, he did make up for it this year by throwing the sixth most touchdowns.  The Steelers have the third best offensive line in the league.  Roethlisberger has been hit the third least amount of times out of any quarterback this season.  After various injuries at inopportune times during the past few seasons, they are finally ready to go and have been playing their best late in this season.  The Steelers also have some other options on offense as well.  Eli Rogers and Jesse James have been unnoticed factors in the overall success.  Rogers is just a second year man out Louisville but he doesn’t really play like one.  He has gained some of Big Ben’s trust as the season has gone on and has made an impact.  He may not have the stats to back it up with 48 receptions, 594 yards, and three touchdowns but he contributes by being a semi-reliable third option.  Tight end Jesse James has come up big for the Steelers.  With the departure of Heath Miller, the offense was in dire need of a reliable go-to guy in the middle of the field.  James supplied that.  He is huge at 6’7″ and 261 lbs so he isn’t quite the guy you’d want lining up across from you.  He is also not a stat builder with his below average numbers but he has been the guy that Big Ben has went to when they were in need of a big play on third down.  He came up big in their divisional match up against the chiefs with eight receptions for 89 yards.  When playing at its highest level, this Steelers offense has the potential to be the best in the league.

Defense:  Pittsburgh’s physicality may be a little less noticeable on the offensive side of the ball but on defense they are one of the most brutal teams to go up against.  If there’s one thing for certain about this defense, it’s that they are not afraid to hit.  They do whatever it takes to win whether it’s mentally by getting in your head or physically by hitting you so hard that it knocks you out of the game.  Usually it’s a little bit of both.  They are ranked twelfth in total defense.  In terms of passing and rushing defense, they don’t specifically excel at either one.  Though, they are above average in each at thirteenth and sixteenth respectively.  However, they are ranked ninth in the league in total sacks.  This has been particularly useful in the postseason as they lead it with six combined sacks in their two games.  Their red zone defense has been very good this season where they rank inside the top five.  Lawrence Timmons is the leading tackler on this defense with his 114 total including 78 solos.  He also has two interceptions.  The real leader for this defense has to be linebacker Ryan Shazier.  Now in his third season, he has emerged as one of the top linebackers in the league.  His incredible speed, tackling ability, and eye for the ball has made him a tremendous asset to this Steelers defense.  He is the team’s second leading tackler, has five interceptions (two in the playoffs), three forced fumbles, and nine tackles for loss.  His pro career has been marred by a couple of injuries but when he’s been fully healthy it’s certainly been a sight to see.  At 38 years old, linebacker James Harrison is one of the oldest players in the NFL.  Yet, he’s still playing at a high level and is still a fine contributor to this defense.  In fact, he leads the team with five sacks and has an interception.  At 6’0″ 240 lbs, Harrison is incredibly hard to stop when he’s rushing off the edge with his low center of gravity.  He’s one of the scariest players to go up against in the league.  He was a huge factor in the Steelers’ divisional game against the Chiefs.  His two and a half sacks, forced fumble, and eleven tackles helped boost his team to victory.  He was also part of the controversial play when Chiefs’ left tackle Eric Fisher was called for a hold when he threw Harrison down during their two point conversion attempt to tie the game.  Harrison had beat Fisher around the edge so he had no choice but to hold him or Alex Smith would have been toast.  The quick and physical playing style that the Steelers utilize allows them to compete at the highest level no matter what team they go up against.

What To Expect:

  1. I expect the play of Ben Roethlisberger to be a major factor in the outcome of this game.  Roethlisberger has struggled a bit on the road not only in the regular season but in the postseason as well.  It is imperative that he plays well in this match up in order for the Steelers to come out on top.  The Steelers have the third best offensive line in the league which has translated to Roethlisberger being hit the third least amount of times out of any quarterback.  Combine that with the fact that New England has a relatively weak pass rush being ranked sixteenth in sacks on the season which means Big Ben is going to have a decently clean pocket to operate from.  He should have the opportunities to make plays in this game it’s just whether or not he is able to execute in such a hostile environment.  The Patriots are third in the league in turnover differential so if Roethlisberger gets turnover happy then there are going to be major consequences.
  2. I expect the Patriots to make a concerted effort to stop the Pittsburgh run game.  The Patriots have a knack for taking away their opponent’s strongest weapon so it won’t be surprising to see them stack it up a bit on defense this Sunday.  They have the third best rushing defense in the league.  However, there really hasn’t been a team that’s been able to completely stop Le’Veon Bell.  When these two teams played earlier this season, Bell was held to only 81 yards on 21 carries.  This stat is rather insignificant though because Roethlisberger was out for that one so there was not an aerial threat for the Patriots to worry about.  If the Pats can’t slow down Bell, they could be in serious trouble.
  3. I expect the Steelers to have a tough time stopping Brady.  The Steelers’ passing defense is ranked sixteenth and in total sacks they are ranked ninth.  In order to fluster Brady and this Patriots offense, a team must play solid passing defense and be sound in the defensive secondary.  Being able to put pressure on Brady is also a key to beating them.  Teams that were able to effectively take down the Patriots was the Seahawks this season and most importantly the Broncos last season.  The Seahawks ended up ranked eighth in the league in passing defense this season and the Broncos were ranked first in passing defense last season.  Both teams were ranked in the top five in sacks when they beat the Patriots.
  4. I expect the Antonio Brown/Malcolm Butler match up and the overall pass coverage against the Steelers’ receivers to be significant.  When the Steelers played the Patriots earlier this season, Brown went off for seven catches for 106 yards.  That’s a pretty good stat line but that 106 yards includes one of the catches going for 51 of those yards.  With the Patriots focusing their attention on Le’Veon Bell and Roethlisberger being under pressure in this road game at Gillette Stadium, Antonio Brown is going to have to step up and make big plays in every opportunity he gets.  Steelers’ tight end Jesse James had a big game in Kansas City with his eight catches for 89 yards and fellow tight Ladarius Green is returning from injury so I originally expected that to be a major factor in this game but the Patriots sport the fifth best defense against tight ends.  With that, I do still expect them to play a part in the Steelers’ game plan but taper the expectations for their production a bit more in this match up.
  5. I expect the Steelers to have an easier time defending the middle of the field.  Last Sunday, Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce carved up the middle of the Steelers’ defense.  He had five receptions for 77 yards which should have ended up being easily over 100 yards and a couple more receptions due to the fact that he dropped some balls in key parts of the game.  Fortunately for the Steelers, star tight end Rob Gronkowski will not be participating in this game because of injury.  This will prove to be a key factor in this one because if Gronk was going to be on the field this Sunday then the Steelers would most likely suffer a far worse fate.
  6. I expect the quarterback battle to be significant in this match up.  With the media raving about Le’Veon Bell’s dominant rushing performances leading up to this game, we can’t forget about the importance that quarterback play has had on this playoff season.  The final four teams remaining in the playoffs each have a great quarterback.  Each game has been decided by who ultimately had the better quarterback.  In those games, the stats that I found were significant leading up to them included third down conversion efficiency, yards per pass attempt, and turnover differential.  The Patriots have a distinct advantage in each of those categories but that doesn’t mean I’m completely counting the Steelers out.  It just means that Roethlisberger needs to come out and play to the best of his abilities to beat some odds.

 

Trends:  During the Belichick era, the Patriots are 6-4 in the conference championship overall and 4-1 when they have home field advantage.  The Patriots are 107-1 at home when leading at halftime since 2001.  Last time the Steelers met the Patriots in the AFC Championship was in the 2004 season where Belichick/Brady’s team beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh 41-27.  Belichick is 2-0 against the Steelers in the conference championship.  When Brady won his first Super Bowl in 2001, he beat the Steelers 20-17 in the AFC Championship.  Tomlin is 2-0 in AFC Championship appearances.  Roethlisberger and Brady both won Super Bowls in their second season.  The Steelers came in the playoffs from the Wild Card spot in 2005 and won the Super Bowl which was just a year after the Patriots knocked them out of the playoffs in the conference championship in 2004.

Featured Image Credit:  Associated Press/AP Photo/Steven Senne (930kbai.com)

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NFL Divisional Round: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

NFC

(3) Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) @ (2) Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

After a rather mediocre Wild Card Weekend showing, the divisional round of the NFL playoffs has arrived.  All of the favorites on last weekend’s card ended up blowing out their opponents.  I was hoping to see some kind of playoff magic from an underdog over the weekend but they all ended up leaving the viewers greatly disappointed.  The home teams ran the table this time around.  None of the games featured a margin of victory under double digits.  Two of the games were won by twenty points or more.  This past season did feel a bit more top-heavy than the usual but I didn’t expect a flop of this magnitude from these teams.  Of course nobody wanted to see all of those games turn into blow outs, but an upside to it is that the teams that advanced obviously deserved it because they were clearly the better team so now we can enjoy the match ups that we were all looking forward to seeing in the divisional round.  Fortunately, there are some good looking games on tap for this weekend beginning with the Seattle Seahawks travelling across the nation to face off with the Atlanta Falcons for an NFC heavyweight showdown.

This is a very interesting match up as it pairs up the Falcons who were the league’s second most productive offense with the Seattle defense who were the fifth best this season.  Seattle has had one of the top five best defenses in each season since 2012.  Atlanta has been in the top ten in total offense in five of their last six seasons.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons return to the playoffs after going through a three season drought following their close loss in the NFC Championship to the San Francisco 49ers in 2012.  They didn’t manage anything above a .500 record in those three seasons.  The franchise hasn’t went four straight seasons without a playoff berth since the 1980’s.  The Falcons started off hot building up a 4-1 record out of the gate.  However, this development was very reminiscent of last season where they began the season with a 6-1 record and ended up 8-8.  The Falcons made a concerted effort this time around to make sure they finish the season the way they started it by rattling off four straight wins en route to not only making the playoffs but claiming a top seed as well.  Much of this success is due to their ability to stay consistent.  This is especially evident on the offensive end.  Twelve of their games went over 30 points and five of those games were over 40 points.  The ability to consistently put up points and outscore their opponents regardless of who they were has been very beneficial to their success.  This is certainly a step up from their previous season where they were held to 20 points or less in eight of their games as compared to just one game in this season.  The Falcons defense has not been very good this season so the Falcons have made up for it by not turning the ball over on offense.  The team ranks fourth best in turnover differential which is one of the most underrated statistics as it is a key factor to being a better football team.  This is a stat that the New England Patriots seem to take pride in as they are regulars in the top five in terms of turnover differential.  Speaking of the Patriots, the Falcons offense is tied with them for least amount of turnovers in the league with eleven.  After winning the Super Bowl as defensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2014, Dan Quinn took the head coaching job with the Falcons in 2015.  You would’ve thought that the team would adopt a more defensive minded approach with his hiring but it turned out to be the opposite.  The defense worsened since Dan Quinn has been head coach and the offense improved.  Quinn has been coaching since 1994.  His coaching career began at the college level as a defensive line coach and progressed from there as he coached the defensive lines of a couple other schools until he began jumping from team to team in the NFL utilizing his experience as a defensive mind.  In the second season of his first stint as a head coach, Quinn is now in position to make his mark in the postseason at the highest level.

Offense:  The Falcons offense has been a force to reckon with.  They boast three Pro Bowlers in their skill positions including Matt Ryan (4x Pro Bowl), Julio Jones (4x Pro Bowl), and Devonta Freeman (2x Pro Bowl).  This team is not only the second best in total offense, but also one of the most balanced offenses as well.  They rank top three in passing yards per game and top five in rushing yards per game.  Their 34 points per game is the best mark in the league.  What makes this offense go?  Look no further than four time Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Ryan.  He was top three in the league in total passing yards, completion percentage, and touchdowns.  His interceptions are also down quite a bit as he only threw seven in this season as compared to his 16 in 2015 and 14 in 2014.  That statistic alone could be the key to this team’s great success.  All-Pro receiver Julio Jones must be overjoyed about Matt Ryan’s recent success as he is enjoying yet another outstanding season.  Last season, Jones came within 93 yards of breaking Calvin Johnson’s single season receiving record of 1,964 yards back in 2012.  Jones recorded 1409 yards (second in league) and six touchdowns this season.  His 17 yards per reception is fourth in the league.  He may not catch the most balls but when he does he’s extremely hard to take down or even catch up to for that matter.  His combination of size, speed, and strength makes him just about impossible to guard when he’s healthy.  His presence garners the whole defense’s attention and sometimes even that isn’t enough to slow him down.  Their run game is comprised of a dual threat committee consisting of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.  Just when it seemed like the Falcons weren’t going to have much of a running game, Devonta Freeman came on the scene in 2015.  Coleman originally won the job in the off season before that season but he got injured so Freeman stepped in as his backup and turned out an extremely productive season leading to a Pro Bowl in his sophomore season.  With Coleman healthy to start this season, the Falcons were able to deploy a committee to distribute the carries and even out the workload (to the displeasure of fantasy owners).  This committee turned out to be a great success as they finished in the top five in rushing yards per game whilst adding another receiver out of the backfield for Matt Ryan to check to.  Freeman led the way in both categories with Coleman pitching in as a runner and receiver as a change of pace player.  Freeman averaged an exceptional 4.8 yards per carry with Coleman not far behind with 4.4.  The Falcon’s moves in this off season paid off at the receiver position.  They picked up Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel who turned out to be very solid counterparts to Julio Jones.  They at least served as viable options for Ryan so that the defenses would be forced to stay honest and not put complete focus on Julio Jones.

Defense:  The Falcons don’t own a defense that’ll make opposing offenses lose any sleep.  In fact, their defense hasn’t been better than 15th since 2011.  They rank 25th in total defense and have given up the sixth most points this season.  Some of the blame for this could easily be put on the fact that the Falcons have been playing without one of their star defensive players for a good part of this season.  Star cornerback Desmond Trufant has been out since November with a pectoral injury and had surgery which ended his season.  It’s always sad to hear about a star player for a team not be able to be on the field and compete when their team makes it to the postseason.  However, there are some aspects of their defense that are sneaky good and have worked to their advantage in this season.  The Falcons are third in the league in defensive hurries on quarterbacks and have NFL sack leader Vic Beasley as a linebacker on their team.  In just his sophomore season, Beasley has already developed into an All-Pro player and claimed the 2016 NFL sack title by topping Super Bowl MVP Von Miller.  The Falcons are also middle of the pack in takeaways.  Linebacker Deion Jones leads the way for the Falcons in tackles as his 108 total and 75 solos lead the team.  He also has three interceptions and two touchdowns.  Safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal have stepped up their play in the absence of Trufant.  They are second and third on the team in total tackles and solos.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks look to continue their reign of terror over the NFC as they’ve ended up in the playoffs with ten or more wins for the fifth straight season and haven’t lost a first round playoff game in any of those appearances.  Of those appearances, both times the Seahawks won their divisional game they ended up in the Super Bowl.  The key to their recent success can be linked to the formation of ‘The Legion of Boom’ in 2012.  The Seahawks’ defense took the league by storm and didn’t let up.  Seattle has had the single best in every season before this one since 2012.  They rank fifth this season which could be a sign of what’s to come.  This defense is aging and may begin to relinquish the top spot to the younger and savvier groups to come.  Paired with this defense was a solid ball control offense that could run the rock on any team.  Marshawn Lynch was the perfect identity for this offense that was just as tough as their defense.  Russell Wilson’s come up as Seattle’s signal caller came at just the right time.  His great poise and ability to perform under pressure as a young quarterback was underappreciated at the time but would be celebrated in their success.  The mix of Lynch’s punishing running style, Wilson’s timely decision making, and the opportunistic defense made them very difficult to match.  The hiring of Pete Carroll in 2010 marked the beginning of what was to come in Seattle.  Carroll was one of the most experienced coaches on the market.  Having coached in some way for many NFL teams and noteworthy schools in the past, he certainly had the resume.  He had won two national titles in his tenure at USC.  The team could then build from there as Carroll took part in putting together his ideal team.  Since he became head coach, the Seahawks have struck gold on many picks in the NFL Draft that other teams simply passed over.  After defeating the Detroit Lions in last weekend’s Wild Card game, Carroll and the Seahawks are looking to extend their playoff run to the NFC Championship and beyond.

Offense:  Offense has been the one part of this Seahawks team that has never really been particularly productive.  This is mostly because that was never their focus.  The Seahawks utilize a conservative run-first approach as they look to take numbers off the clock instead of putting numbers on the scoreboard.  They do this to minimize turnovers and control field position as well as game pace.  This way, they can keep a lead or keep the game close enough to where their defense can force the opponent into making mistakes in turn giving the Seahawks points off turnovers or a shorter field to work with.  That’s also why the Seahawks put so much emphasis on their special teams as that gives them even more of an advantage.  With the departure of All-Pro running back Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has relied heavily on quarterback Russell Wilson.  Seattle struggled with this transition at first because they no longer had a great running back to strike fear in defenses so nobody respected their run game.  Wilson had to make more individual plays with his arm and legs as the alternative which wasn’t very productive.  The offensive line was also weaker than it once was so that didn’t help things either.  Seattle has had their quarterback hit the fourth most out of any team this season.  Then there came the emergence of running back Thomas Rawls.  Rawls did wonders for this offense when he came out of nowhere and started running like the reincarnation of ‘Beast Mode’.  He was averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and accumulated seven touchdowns in 2015.  That was all good and well until he got injured.  His severe ankle injury ended his 2015 season and put the beginning of this season in jeopardy.  He missed some time during the regular season and was very unimpressive as compared to last season.  Christine Michael filled his place valiantly for a good part of the season but was prompty let go once Rawls was nearing full health.  Seattle unleashed Rawls last weekend against the Lions and he ran all over them to the tune of 27 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown.  He was back to his ways of fighting and squirming for every possible yard while displaying incredible balance.  His services will be much needed in their match up with the Falcons who have the 17th ranked rushing defense.  Seattle has surrounded Russell Wilson with play makers but they are more of the unnamed variety.  Doug Baldwin is by far the leading receiver for Seattle with 94 receptions for 1128 yards and seven touchdowns.  He’s built himself into a more well known receiver over recent years due to his relentless style of play and quiet but highly competitive demeanor.  Jermaine Kearse filled his usual spot as the lesser receiver but he’s always been reliable when called upon.  Lastly, is Tyler Lockett.  The Seahawks drafted Lockett out of Kansas State last season because of his remarkable play making ability.  Lockett can just about do it all whether it’s returning kicks for touchdowns or beating his man down the sideline with his blazing speed.  The Seahawks treated him no different.  He played a key role on special teams last season by returning kick for touchdowns and this season he did the same but was also fully integrated into the offense as a receiver that Wilson built trust into.  Unfortunately, Lockett sustained a serious injury that ended his season not too long ago.  He was Seattle’s third leading receiver and will be missed in the postseason.  However, receiver Paul Richardson has come out of the woodwork in the postseason (typical Seahawks and their star bench players) and has delivered highlight reel plays in place of him.  Then there was Jimmy Graham.  The Seahawks traded for All-Pro Jimmy Graham last season and surprised everyone.  Who knew that Seattle was in the market for a big time name?  Graham didn’t fit in at first and many questioned the move but all of that changed this season.  Wilson and Graham began to connect in rhythm on several occasions.  Their rapport began to develop and it became clear that the Seahawks had finally transition Graham into the player they had envisioned him to be.  He’s making big plays for Seattle in the playoffs already and it doesn’t look like many players will have the ability to stop him.

Defense:  The Seattle Seahawks are the sole owner of the most notorious defense in recent history.  This defense has tormented offenses everywhere for the past five seasons without remorse.  They haven’t been shy about it either.  Richard Sherman and ‘The Legion of Boom’ as well as the rest of their defense know who they are and aren’t afraid to let you know about it.  Since 2012, they’ve been a top five defense statistically in every season.  This included several single best overall seasons.  This season, they rank 8th in passing defense, 7th in rushing defense, and fifth in total defense.  The Seahawks are tied for third in league in sacks.  This defense excels in just about every category from their secondary to their front seven.  With all of the big names in their secondary, I’ll name off the real leader of this defense first.  Bobby Wagner is an absolute tackling machine.  His team leading 167 total tackles leads the NFL.  He also paces this defense with 4.5 sacks, six tackles for loss, and a pick.  K.J. Wright is also a solid contributor from the linebacker position with 126 total tackles, four sacks, and ten tackles for loss.  Richard Sherman has been one of the most well known players in the NFL due to his loud mouth and trash talk.  He talks the talk but he can also walk it too.  Sherman has performed at a high level for some time now and has been in the discussion for best defensive back in the league.  Though he has played on one side of the field for a good portion of his career, he’s been a shutdown corner and is not a player you’d want to do battle with as a receiver.  His four interceptions in this season leads the team.  Defensive backs Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, DeShawn Shead, and Jeremy Lane are great play makers as well.  Kam Chancellor has been widely known as one of the hardest hitting safeties in the league.  His 6’3″ 225 pound frame makes him a scary sight for anyone to see on the field especially when he’s coming at you.  Earl Thomas is a five time Pro Bowl selection and has been an instinctive hard-hitting presence for this unit.  Unfortunately, he suffered a serious season ending injury which has put his future in question.  The Seahawks will struggle mightily when attempting to make up for his presence.  Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril anchor the defensive line.  They’ve been a productive pair as their presence causes a big distraction to any quarterback that gets the pleasure to play against them.

What To Expect:

  1. I expect the battles up front to be the major factor for both sides.  Russell Wilson has been hit the fourth most in the league and Matt Ryan isn’t far behind with him getting hit the sixth most.  The offensive line that plays the best will prevail.  Fortunately for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson’s lower extremity injuries are clearing up just in time for the playoffs so he should be able to avoid pressure regardless.  Both teams have capable pass rushes so it should be interesting to see how this part of the game plays out.
  2. I expect the Falcons’ home field advantage to benefit them immensely.  Four of the Seahawks’ five losses were on the road and the game they tied was at Arizona.  Atlanta has played very well at home this season.  They have score over 30 points in the vast majority of their home games.  Seattle seems to have real problems when playing in indoor stadiums specifically.  This should make it difficult to slow down Atlanta’s electric offense.
  3. I expect this to be a fairly high scoring game.  The Falcons should be able to get plenty of production in their dome and the Seahawks offense has looked good in their last four games where they’ve scored at least 24 points in each contest.  Seattle didn’t look like they missed Earl Thomas too much against Detroit but Atlanta could be the team to exploit them in his absence.

Featured Image Credit:  Grant Hindsley (seattlepi.com)

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Diagnosing the Shortcomings of Ohio State Hoops

Ohio State Basketball entered Big Ten conference play with just three losses.  They have already matched that loss count by losing their first three conference games.  The Bucks’ 0-3 start in the conference is one of the program’s worst marks in recent history.  Fans are starting to get frustrated at head coach Thad Matta and this team because what began as a somewhat promising season is now seemingly spiraling into a free fall in the early goings of conference play.  An easy way to get over some of this frustration is to get an understanding of how it all happened in the first place.  With that being said, here are some things to note when examining this season’s edition of Buckeye basketball thus far that may help in easing some of the discontent.

The main story for the Bucks this season is easily their inability to finish.  Each of their six losses this season included being within seven points of their opponent with under three minutes left to go in the game.  This includes being down seven to #2 UCLA with under two minutes left on a neutral floor and down two to #6 Virginia in the final seconds on their home floor (their rankings at the time of contest).  The Bucks had every chance to pull off the upset against Virginia but blew a first half lead that was as large as 32-16 and spoiled an opportunity to end the game or at least send it to overtime by leading an absolutely dreadful final possession to say the least.  The accumulation of close defeats being added to the loss column as well as the frustration that goes along with knowing that a few of those losses should have been wins is really taking a toll on this young team.  However, there is a positive side to this.  They have displayed the ability to compete with any opponent.  All they need to do is take the next step which is to learn how to win.  For a lot of younger teams, it takes a bit of time for them to learn how to compete.  It shows great promise that they accomplished that step so quickly and are now ready to put it all together.  However, the unfortunate aspect to that is they are running out of time.  Already three games into their eighteen game conference trek, they will need to pick up the pace to keep up with the pack.  It just makes the margin for error that much smaller as the season goes on which could add up to be more than these Bucks can afford.

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Image Credit:  (www.chatsports.com)

The Buckeyes’ most noticeable weakness is the absence of a leader.  This goes for players and coaching alike.  As the season has progressed, we’ve been patiently waiting for somebody to step forward and take charge of this squad and put it on their shoulders.  That has yet to be seen.  After failing to solidify the role as leader during last season, we were hoping to see senior forward Marc Loving step up and make a major impact as a veteran player.  It became clear early on that this was not going to happen.  In fact, even his stats have gotten markedly worse in this season and it doesn’t look like he made any sort of attempt at getting stronger as a person or player during the off season.  I would say that Loving should be seeing more time on the bench but due to their lack of depth there’s no choice but to play him.  Instead, junior forward Jae’Sean Tate made his bid at the beginning to be the leader on the court for this team.  Since he began as a freshman at Ohio State in 2014, Tate has improved substantially with each passing season.  He’s now up to 14.5 points per game and is shooting at 56%.  He leads the team in points per game and is second in shooting efficiency.  His individual impact on each game is surely felt but it hasn’t translated to overall success for the team.  Sure, he will put up impressive stat lines in every game but it’s not rubbing off on his teammates.  This could also be tied to his range, free throw ability, and ball handling skills.  That brings me to the reason why having that one player who is ‘the guy’ is so important to a team.  All of those games where the Bucks came within one or two possessions of getting the win can be directly linked to not having any players who the team is confident in and therefore are deemed unreliable.  The Bucks seem to do everything right up until the last five minutes of the game.  The pressure gets to them and they just collapse.  It’s just such an obvious indicator of the leadership quality that this team attains.  They seem to have nobody at all to guide them through the final minutes of the game.  It’s all mental.  The Bucks are in serious need of guidance and until this happens don’t expect them to change too much any time soon.

I am surely not the first and will definitely not be the last to criticize head coach Thad Matta but there is something wrong with the culture around Buckeye Basketball in recent years and especially this season.  With all of the fingers being pointed in every direction when trying to determine who is the culprit of the recent demise of Buckeye basketball, Matta isn’t getting any leeway from anyone.  It really doesn’t help any when Buckeye fans transition from watching the success of the football team to seeing a total lack of production from the basketball program.  I do believe that it is a bit unfair for so many to be calling for his job and saying he should be fired.  In the modern era, it is common for people to have short memory and want change immediately after unsatisfactory results but in this instance I don’t believe it is merited just yet.  At any rate, Matta has brought greatness to this program on many occasions in the past so his recent downturn shouldn’t yet result in his release.  This includes him bringing many great players through this program who are also currently successful or were successful in the NBA as well as winning conference titles and appearances in the Final Four.  His last Final Four appearance was just a couple years ago in 2012.  We also can’t forget about when he brought in recent All-American talent D’Angelo Russell who ended up going second overall in the NBA Draft.  Yes, the recent demise of this teams is troubling but Thad Matta deserves a bit more faith and respect from the community.  The Bucks have recovered from slow starts before so who’s to say that they can’t get over these close losses and recover again.  However, Matta does assuredly deserve his portion of the blame in certain areas of how the Bucks have operated this season.  I would like to point out the situational play calling that is deployed.  When the Bucks are in need of points in a critical juncture of the game such as right before half to retain momentum or right when the game is about to end to get a lead, the play that is ran right out of the timeout has been absolutely horrendous.  It’s almost like the timeout was called and they just talked about what they had for breakfast that morning or something.  When I watch other teams come out of the timeout in that situation, they always have many moving parts going on and picks being set to get the optimal shot for their most appropriate player.  When the Bucks come out of that timeout, they give it to one guy and every other play just stands around and watches as that guy dribbles around until the final seconds tick off the clock and he launches up a prayer of a shot with a hand in his face.  It’s just so frustrating as a fan to watch things like that happen and not blame the coach for not having something better drawn up especially when they’ve been in these types of situations quite often.  It’s also extremely important to have multiple players on the court involved in plays like that with a team like the Bucks have where they don’t have that one guy who is reliable and can make the clutch play happen.  They can use this to their advantage by moving the ball around which will surely set someone up for a good look.  That would at the very least be much better than a player trying to run a very obvious iso and settling for a low-percentage shot.

The loss of junior forward Keita Bates-Diop has been overlooked a bit in this recent lapse.  Bates-Diop suffered a leg injury that has left the Bucks without him for much of the conference season so far.  He will have surgery to repair the injury which will now cost him the rest of the season.  He was the third leading scorer for the Bucks last season, third in three-pointers made, and was by far the leader in total rebounds.  His 6’7″ frame made him a tough match up with any defender because of his ability to handle the ball and shoot it from range.  He was one of the most important pieces to this team and replacing him is close to impossible.  The Bucks have struggled to make due without him.  Hopefully the Bucks can figure out a way to fill his place and make the rotation work more smoothly as the season goes on.

The importance of sophomore JaQuan Lyle is a very underrated aspect of this team.  As a freshman last season, Lyle made an immediate impact by averaging a little over eleven points and four assists per game.  In my opinion, Lyle is the most intriguing player on this team in terms of just raw talent and athletic ability.  He’s a play maker who has tons of potential.  It seems like every game he’ll flash a couple of amazing plays that make me wonder if he is actually being held back by the Bucks and should be somewhere more successful while understanding/fulfilling his full potential.  However, he clearly has his flaws and does hurt this team at times in more than one way.  His inconsistency has been a real issue.  He’ll make some great plays in the first half and shut down in the second or even have a great performance one game and be the team’s downfall in the next.  He has had major problems turning the ball over this season.  Most notably in their close loss at Virginia where he accounted for eight turnovers.  He has shot the third most three pointers on the team with 44 attempts but has only made 13 of them (29%).  I believe that this team runs through the play and confidence of Lyle.  If he can become more consistent and make smarter plays with the ball, then the Bucks could be in for a more productive season as a whole.

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Image Credit:  Jay LaPrete, Associated Press

Last but not least, the Buckeyes have been absolutely terrible at the foul line.  They are shooting an abysmal 67% from the foul line this season which is 249th in the country.  This is not a new development though as the Bucks converted at just 68% last season.  There is no way a team can expect to be successful if they can’t get their free points when given the opportunity.  For example, last year’s Villanova Wildcats shot 78% from the foul line on the season and won the championship.  If the Bucks can’t get the rest of their game polished, then the least they could do is work on their foul shots and get their points that way.  Maybe then they’ll be the ones who come out on top when the games get close toward the end.

Featured Image Credit:  USA TODAY Sports (www.scout.com)

If you liked this article and would like to read more similar this one, please visit Alec’s Ohio Sports Blog at alecdhartman.wordpress.com.  If you would like to be notified when new articles are posted, go to alecdhartman.wordpress.com and click the follow button in the lower right hand corner.