Why the Atlanta Falcons Are My Pick to Win Super Bowl LI

The suspense is beginning to build at an increasing rate with Super Bowl Sunday approaching in a few days.  Sports analysts all over the world have been busy making predictions and clawing for story lines to cover since the last seconds ticked off the clock in the conference championships.  Sports fans have been glued to their TV’s and social devices to follow along with the vast abundance of news spewing from every media outlet imaginable.  The market for this game will only expand from here.  The New England Patriots opened as a three point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons with the total points over/under set at 58 points which is the highest total ever set in Super Bowl history.

My pick to win Super Bowl LI is the Atlanta Falcons.  Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan have started to click at the perfect time.  With the Super Bowl approaching, Kyle Shanahan’s offense is firing on all cylinders and Dan Quinn has put an influence on this defense that makes them believe that they can accomplish anything.  Though this defense is young, they are playing some great football right now and have looked much more experienced than what their age tells us.  Many people are doubting this Falcons team as they are the underdog and are facing one of the most experienced teams when it comes to the postseason.  However, there are many things about this Falcons team that I consider to be winning formulas in this Super Bowl which I will explain in this article.

It’s all about perspective.  That’s really the kicker when people are analyzing a match up and making inferences on what will come of the game.  It really depends on whether you are biased toward certain teams and players or if you roll with the popular opinion that you hear spewing from the mouths of TV personalities on sports networks every day.  Yes, everyone is entitled to their own opinion but I think a lot of it is just a bunch of garbage.  This probably won’t be the last time that I criticize the popular media or media outlets in general.  It really does play a big part in the perception of the viewers leading up to a notable sporting event.  The story lines encompassing this Super Bowl are centered around the Patriots.  This was expected as the Patriots have been pretty much the best team in the NFL during the last decade or so.  Other headlines regarding the Patriots include the legendary Brady/Belichick combo and their quest for revenge against Goodell as well as achieving NFL history by getting their fifth ring.  That would be the most Super Bowl rings won by a quarterback and the most rings won by a head coach.  The media discussing Brady and Belichick in terms of being in the greatest of all time conversation is certainly driving the betting tickets through the roof in their favor.  However, I would like to say as a disclaimer that I do respect the Patriots, Belichick, and Brady so anything that I say against them is not in hatred.  The Patriots deserve a ton of respect for their successes in the postseason but that may not be enough to combat this loaded Falcons team.  It is not working in their favor that the media is hyping them up and not the Falcons.  Though I will say that the Falcons have been getting more talk as of late.  This is probably due to the fact that they couldn’t possibly conceal the Falcons’ arsenal of strengths for that long.  Another big topic of discussion has been the success of the Patriots’ defense this season.  Since the Broncos won with the #1 scoring defense last season everyone is flipping out about how the #1 defense wins championships against #1 offenses which makes them think that the Pats are even more of a lock to cruise to victory.  That statistic would be true as top defenses have had a track record of being successful in Super Bowls in the past but I would like for everyone to pause for a minute and recognize that nobody said a word about their defense before the playoffs.  Yes, they were successful but I still don’t think that they’re anywhere near as impressive as what the stat sheet displays.  The Pats are eighth overall in total defense and are near the middle of the pack in passing defense in terms of yards per game.  That differs greatly from the Broncos’ Super Bowl winning defense of last season that was the top total defense in the league and gave up the least amount of passing yards.  The Patriots’ defense is really nothing too special other than their schemes put their players in good position to make plays at key points.  What they do have is a good red zone defense which has been the key to their success in limiting their opponent’s points per game.  I am not sold on that alone being enough for the Patriots to win this game.  The topics of interest concerning the Falcons include people saying that Matt Ryan will fold because he hasn’t been successful in the playoffs, the defense will get shredded by Brady because it has too many rookies, and Julio Jones will get taken away which will cause the offense to fail.  I find all of these reasons to be absolutely ridiculous and downright ignorant.  Matt Ryan has been lights out in the playoffs so far and hasn’t shown a hint of slowing down.  He is laser focused and is not letting anything get to him.  I expect him to play the same way on Sunday.  The rookies on this defense aren’t just any rookies.  Keanu Neal and Deion Jones are in contention for the defensive rookie of the year award.  They developed pretty quickly as the season went on and are now playing their best ball leading up to this game.  This defense plays fast and hits hard.  If anyone stuck around and watched the whole NFC Championship game (during the blowout), then they would have seen the replays of Aaron Rodgers getting annihilated.  They run down hill and tackle through the ball carrier.  Deion Jones intercepted Russell Wilson in the divisional round.  There has been much improvement as they have shown up when the games have counted the most.  The Patriots have had a knack for shutting down the opposing team’s best offensive player.  This has worked well for them and a recent example of this would be in the AFC Championship when they shut down Antonio Brown.  This defense works well against teams that don’t have a variety of talent to compliment their best offensive player.  Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Falcons have like eight different talented offensive players.  Julio Jones is clearly the best of the bunch but there isn’t a huge drop off between him and the players around him.  In order to shut down Julio, it would take at least two defensive players covering him at any given time.  If the Patriots were to try and double team Julio, then there would be a major price to pay as Matt Ryan would just check to the open receiver for a big gain.  Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and others are all great players.  The Patriots will have their hands full on Sunday and shutting down Julio Jones will be the least of their worries.

This game feels similar to the NCAA National Championship game and the NBA Finals.  This kind of plays into what I was saying about media perspective.  Alabama and the Warriors were viewed as two unstoppable forces when they reached those games.  In the NCAA Championship game, all they talked about was Alabama’s history of being good, Saban, and that defense.  They seemed to mostly neglect the fact that Alabama was playing a 19 year old freshman quarterback in national championship game.  Clemson clearly had the better offense and their defense was solid too.  The talk was about how Deshaun Watson was interception prone and couldn’t hold up against the Alabama defense.  Yes, Watson threw interceptions against Ohio State but the Bucks also had one of the most turnover aggressive defenses in the NCAA.  Watson was a senior quarterback who had star receiver Mike Williams who will be one of the best receivers in this year’s draft class and a solid defense.  The game played out exactly the way I expected it to.  The Alabama running game got the job done and scored on a couple of big plays, freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t play very well and missed on a couple of key long balls, and the Clemson offense/defense came through.  It was the simple factors in this game that people who backed Alabama seemed to gloss right over.  As for comparing that game to the Super Bowl game, the Falcons offense compares well with the Clemson offense and Alabama’s coach Saban commands the same respect that Belichick does on their respective levels.  This game reminds me of the NBA Finals because the Warriors were an unstoppable force coming in with the record breaking 73-9 record, unanimous MVP, and a 3-1 lead.  The Cavaliers had received all kinds of criticism and was getting no support at all from any popular media personality.  Pretty much all of them picked the Warriors to win the series when it was time to pick a champion.  The Cavaliers went down 3-1 and it was pretty much confirmed that they had lost.  However, the Cavaliers defied all odds by storming back to tie up the series and bring it to game seven where they won on the Warriors’ home floor.  The odds for this Super Bowl are not near as far as the Cavs’ were in areas of their NBA Finals run but the point is that the Falcons are being doubted in the Super Bowl.  This will fire up the Falcons and give them what it takes to stick it to the people who didn’t believe in them.

I am not exactly sure why people are taking so much away from the Falcons’ victories in the playoffs leading up to this game.  I understand that the Seahawks were missing Earl Thomas and the Packers had plenty of injuries but it’s not like everybody was giving those excuses a ton of weight before the Falcons whipped them.  The Seahawks had looked very impressive in the win over the Lions in the Wild Card and the vast majority of people were still backing the Packers to make it a close game in Atlanta because they were still a pretty good team despite the injuries.  It seems like people will find any reason in the world to doubt the Falcons no matter how good they play.  So much so that there’s probably going to be a group of people trying to downplay the Falcons even if they win by the same margin in the Super Bowl.  I would also like to point out that the Falcons had a much more difficult road to the Super Bowl than the Patriots did.  The Falcons had to play Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers who are both top ten quarterbacks or better.  The Seahawks and the Packers are both great organizations who are almost always competitive no matter who they play.  The Falcons capturing easy double digit victories over those teams was impressive but somehow overlooked.  The Patriots got to play the pitiful Houston Texans and a Steelers team that struggles on the road.  The quarterbacks they played against were Brock Osweiler and Ben Roethlisberger.  Brock Osweiler can’t hit the side of a barn and was benched halfway through the regular season.  Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road and was missing Le’veon Bell.  The Steelers’ offense as a whole was overrated because Martavis Bryant was gone so they really didn’t have anyone else other than Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  During the regular season, the Falcons played a solid game against the Broncos in Denver.  Matt Ryan was efficient and had his way for the most part.  The Broncos had the fourth best total defense and the best passing defense.  The Falcons also went to Seattle and was just about a play away from beating them on their home field.  The Seahawks had only lost at home once all season.  Seattle had the fifth best total defense and the eighth best passing defense.  Matt Ryan was once again successful as he threw for 335 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.  The Falcons have been well tested this season and have proven that they can take on any team that stands in their way.  After going into Denver/Seattle and playing well, I am sure that they won’t be phased much when they meet the Patriots’ defense on Sunday.

One thing that stands out to me regarding this season’s playoffs is the success of teams with good quarterback play and efficient passing offenses.  As I observed the playoff slate getting smaller with teams getting eliminated each week, I began to pick up on a pattern.  The team with the better passing offense always won.  I also mixed this observation with stats like third down efficiency, pass yards per attempt, and turnover margin.  The team with the advantage in the majority of those stats always won the game.  That explains why the final four quarterbacks remaining were Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger.  The Falcons and the Patriots turned out to be the final teams remaining which corresponded to those statistics as both of these offenses rank near the top in each of those categories.  With that in mind, the forecast for this game is basically a wash as neither team has a clear advantage.  The Patriots have a better third down conversion percentage, the Falcons are better in team yards per pass attempt, and they are even when it comes to turnover margin.  If the Falcons end up winning the Super Bowl, I think that this will be a clear turning point in how great offense is going to be the face of football’s future.

Betting:  I don’t even feel like the spread is necessary in this game because I believe that the Falcons will win outright.  The Patriots being the three point favorite in the Super Bowl was what I expected when looking at this match up.  I think Vegas made them three point favorites solely because of the brand name.  Patriots, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick are powerful names to mention considering their history of dominance in the NFL.  I mean they did just win the Super Bowl two years ago, reached the AFC Championship for the sixth straight season, went 14-2 with Brady suspended for the first four games as well as playing without Gronk the whole season, and went 13-3 against the spread.  Being that great against the spread as the opening favorite to win the Super Bowl is a tough task.  The odds makers had to have been trying to make it more difficult for them to cover the spread as the season went on but the Patriots just kept covering.  That’s also a prime example of why betting against the Patriots isn’t something you should try at home.  Though the Pats have burnt Vegas against the spread all season as the public favorites, Vegas will finally get revenge and cash in big time on this trap line.  This spread line just looks way too suspicious to coincide with a Patriots victory.  It just looks like it is too good to be true.  There is no way that Vegas would put up such a cheap price on Patriots winning against a team like the Falcons.  They knew for sure that they’d get the majority of the public bets on the Patriots in this one by setting a line like that and would rack up some easy cash.  It’s either that or they’re just pulling my leg.  If Vegas really thought that the Patriots were going to win this game then they would have made them AT LEAST a 4.5 point favorite or more.  That way they would surely get some good action on the Falcons’ point spread and money line.  As for right now, the Falcons’ money line isn’t paying out very much at +125 which means that there is something fishy going on.  Vegas is fishing in the Patriots bettors’ pockets for that cold hard cash.  This is especially true considering that they took historic losses in the NCAA Football National Championship game when Clemson pulled off the upset over Alabama.  The spread in that game is somewhat similar to the one in this one.  Alabama was going to draw plenty of money regardless because it’s Alabama.  The Crimson Tide opened as seven point favorites over the Tigers.  That did seem pretty odd from the beginning though regardless of what you think about Bama.  Clemson was a great team as well and that opening spread was just disrespectful.  However, in some ways it did make sense considering Alabama was good against the spread during the season with a 10-5 against the spread record and Clemson wasn’t very good with their against the spread record being 8-7.  The opening spread number of seven is significant because it is a key number in football due to a touchdown and extra point equaling seven points so it made sense that they would choose that number instead of a five or six.  That is why the Patriots opened as a three point favorite instead of a two or four.  It’s a good starting point.  This NCAA Championship game was different than this Super Bowl game though due to the public consensus favorite difference and line movement.  Although Alabama opened as the heavy favorite in this game, the public consensus did not follow suit.  This was quite unexpected because the public historically loves to bet favorites but that was not the case in this one.  Clemson was a public favorite and accumulated a good number of their dollars.  This caused the spread to start moving toward Clemson and Vegas realized that they made a big mistake.  The sharp bettors (bettors who place very large wagers and are known for being on the correct side of the bet) hammered the Tigers as well which caused the spread to drop as low as six points before the game started.  Clemson ended up winning the game outright and Vegas got cleaned out.  I would also like to say that I benefited from this game as I cashed out a three figure bet on the Clemson Tigers.  At least it wasn’t the Super Bowl that they screwed up on.  Since I expected the public to immediately jump on the Patriots’ side and the sharps to likely take the Falcons’ side (as they did in the Falcons’ last two games), I expected to see some line movement.  I did notice some early movement indicators at the start of last week when the spread began moving in the Patriots’ favor.  This was expected because it was predictable that the early public money was going to come in on them so the sports books took the opportunity to tax them with expensive lines.  At one of its highest points, the Patriots were receiving over 70% of the bets.  The total amount of money bet on the Patriots was over 60% of the dollars as well.  With the betting so lopsided in the Patriots’ favor I expected the line to move off of three for at least just a little bit but it didn’t budge.  This lopsided betting went on for pretty much the whole first week and into the second.  The Patriots remained the three point favorite the whole time.  That is when I began to become even more confident in my original theory that the sharps were going to be on the Falcons.  Even though the sharps may not have thrown down the big money yet, it definitely seemed as though Vegas knew it was coming or something was going on to keep that number at three.  Sure enough, the spread price has started to move in the Falcons’ favor.  Just as expected.  Though the Patriots have accumulated the vast majority of total bets and still have the lead in total dollars, the line has remained at three.  I believe it is like this because of the amount of dollars that are being spent in each Falcons bet and the types of respectable bettors that are doing it.  Speaking of kinds of bettors, Floyd Mayweather may be known for throwing down big bucks when he bets on sports games but that doesn’t mean the sports books will move the spread lines because of it.  It’s not always about the money being bet, sometimes it’s about the gambler who is betting it.  The sports books don’t respect Mayweather as a great mind when it comes to gambling so he they won’t move the spread accordingly.  Mayweather might flash his winning tickets but he definitely loses some along the way.  Maybe more than just a few.  The line movement on last seasons Super Bowl was incredibly telling.  The Panthers opened as a five point favorite (there were a lot of deferring spread lines among sports books so five may not be consistent with the others).  This was well earned as the Panthers steamrolled their way to the Super Bowl.  However, this seemed pretty off considering the Broncos had just taken down the New England Patriots.  The Panthers’ near undefeated season and impressive playoff play mixed with the photogenic and outgoing MVP quarterback Cam Newton was enough to draw the public’s attention by storm.  Since the Patriots had already been eliminated, everyone assumed the road was clear as the Broncos featured a rundown Peyton Manning and an unspectacular offense.  Apparently people were quick to forget the defense wins championships.  With the immediate waterfall of money coming in on the Panthers, the sports books reacted quickly and moved the line back as far as making the Panthers a six point favorite at one time.  As Super Bowl Sunday drew closer the spread began creeping toward the Broncos at an increasing rate.  This was the sharp money moving in.  They sharps were placing huge bets on the spread and most importantly the money line.  The sports books had to react quickly in order to try and save themselves leading up to the game.  The Broncos ended up winning the game outright.  The lack of major line movement in this game is a bit concerning but in these circumstances I am still feeling good about where it’s at.

Breaking Down Why I Give the Advantage to the Falcons:

1. The spread line looks suspicious.
2. This game feels similar to when the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in the NBA finals and when Clemson beat Alabama.
3. The Falcons’ defense will be much better than expected.
4. The Falcons’ offense is truly superior over the Patriots’ offense.
5. The Falcons’ lack of mistakes on offense will starve the Patriots of taking advantage of short field opportunities that weaker teams gave them in the past.
6. The disrespect that the Falcons are receiving from the media as an underdog is fuel to the fire.
7. The Falcons have been tested in the regular season.
8. Matt Ryan will show up.
9. The Falcons’ running game is underrated.
10. The Patriots’ defense is overrated.

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AFC Championship: What You Need to Know About the Steelers @ Patriots

The third seeded Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Foxborough on Sunday to do battle with the first seeded New England Patriots for ownership of the AFC title and a spot in Super Bowl LI.  Pittsburgh is 11-5 and New England is 14-2.

Nearing the end of the long road to the Super Bowl, it all comes down to this.  This is the AFC Championship where many great teams have advanced in triumph while others equally as great have experienced the pain of defeat.  Each competitor enters this game knowing they have just 60 minutes of football remaining between them and a chance at the title.  So close but yet so far.  Now that it’s down to these two exceptional teams who have seen more than a fair share of playoff appearances…  it’s time to find out who competes for a ring and who is here just for show.

This match up is one of destiny.  The Steelers and the Patriots are meeting up at the highest level in the AFC conference championship.  We’re talking about two teams who are among the most storied franchises in the history of the NFL.  It’s amazing how these teams have went so long without meeting in the playoffs for how good they’ve been.  The last time the Steelers matched up with the Patriots in the playoffs was in 2004 when the Pats won 41-27 in the conference championship in Pittsburgh and then went on to win Super Bowl XXXIX.  So after a little over a decade of these two teams making noise in the AFC playoffs but managing to avoid each other, they finally get to meet again.  Though, in some ways I view this long separation as a positive.  The Steelers have been either injured, too old (one of the oldest teams through 2013), or suffered from other issues.  A rematch of that 2004 conference championship while playing through those conditions would have been a bit anti-climactic.  Now, the Steelers are finally right where they want to be just in time for a late postseason run.  On the other side, the Patriots have been dealing with the loss of one of the league’s best players in tight end Rob Gronkowski.  His absence hasn’t phased the mighty Patriots though as their team is as resilient as any I’ve seen.  This is a very intriguing match up and should be a good one so without further ado let’s get to breaking it down.

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs for the eighth straight time.  If it wasn’t for Brady not playing due to injury and unfortunate circumstances causing the 11-5 team in 2008 to miss the playoffs, they would have smashed the league record for the longest streak of playoff appearances with 14 (Cowboys and Colts tied with record nine straight playoff appearances).  The Patriots and the Packers currently hold the longest active playoff appearances streak with eight.  New England also holds the lead in consecutive seasons with a playoff win.  The Patriots have now been to the AFC Championship for the sixth straight season which is a new NFL record.  Three time AP NFL Coach of the Year and six time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick is the man behind the controls of this operation.  Since he took over in New England in 2000, he’s guided the Pats to four Super Bowl wins on six total appearances.  Belichick’s 24 playoff wins are the most of any coach in NFL history.  In his tenure with the Patriots, he has not had a losing season since his debut in 2000 where he went 5-11.  Belichick isn’t just a great coach, he’s an interesting character as well.  Aside from making his media appearances as painful as possible, he handles his business in a distinct way.  He’s never been a man of great emotion but there’s just something about him that affects the emotions of others around him.  He built this team entirely from his vision.  Every player that was given the opportunity to be on this roster was hand picked and knows what is expected.  If a player repeatedly makes errors on the field or starts to go their own way, he will not hesitate to move on to somebody else who is more willing to follow orders and carry out the game plan.  His ability to guide the Patriots to the playoffs season after season with lesser known players in the supporting cast is great.  The keen ability to formulate his game plan against any team’s strength on a weekly basis is unique.  Though we may never be able to fully understand his methods, his results will continue to tell the story.  This team isn’t lacking on any surface in their immaculate resume.

Offense:  In the NFL, there are many unknowns when entering the regular season slate after a long off season.  Players are moving from roster to roster, coaching positions change, suspensions are handed down, and injuries occur.  However, there is one thing that everyone can always count on which is the success of the Patriots offense.  They have been within the top ten in total offense in every season since 2004.  This is due to the dawn of the Brady/Belichick era.  Superstar quarterback Tom Brady is at the helm of this exemplar of consistency that is the New England offense.  His resume parallels that of head coach Bill Belichick because they basically came as a package deal.  Brady was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft in 2000 which was the same year that Belichick signed on.  One of Brady’s many achievements as a Patriot began with setting an NFL record by not throwing an interception in his first 162 pass attempts.  In his first full season as the starter, he won the Super Bowl and was the game’s MVP.  Brady got hurt in the first game of 2008 and was out for the rest of the season and they still finished in the top five in total offense.  This season, Brady was finally hit with a suspension that stemmed from the ‘Deflate Gate’ scandal that was brought up after the Patriots beat the Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship in the 2014 season.  Brady was suspended four games to begin this 2016 season.  Sure enough, the Patriots went 3-1 in his absence.  Anyone foolish enough to doubt this team under any circumstance was quickly reminded that this is a bit more than a one man show.  Brady proceeded to throw for 3,554 yards and 28 touchdowns in 12 games.  His 28 touchdowns this season is tied for seventh and his 67.4% completion rate is fourth best among quarterbacks.  The other key cog to this offense’s long term success is star tight end Rob Gronkowski.  He and Brady are among the few players that Belichick has made a full effort to keep.  They are the base of this team while most of the other pieces are merely musical chairs.  For each season that he’s been healthy, Gronk has been one of the most (if not the most) productive tight ends in the last couple of years.  In 2011, he set an NFL record for receiving touchdowns with 17 and receiving yards with 1,327 by a tight end.  He was also the first tight end to lead any receiver in touchdowns in a season.  That was just his second season in the NFL after being drafted in the second round in 2010.  With that being said, the Patriots’ 3-1 start to this season was also achieved in the absence of Gronk.  He was being held out because of “injury” but it’s starting to look more like the Patriots were trying to make a statement to all of the teams in the NFL and the administration that they don’t even need their two best players to be an exceptional team.  Given the first four games weren’t incredibly difficult, it is still impressive that they pulled it off.  Receiver Julian Edelman is another player on this team that Belichick and Brady have grown to trust.  Since he was drafted in the seventh round in 2009, he’s been a major factor in their success.  His ability to influence the game on offense and on special teams has made him a x-factor in many match ups.  He’s a competitive play maker who can work from any position on the field including quarterback (he played in high school and college before switching positions with the Patriots).  Edelman’s 98 receptions for 1,106 yards led the team this season.  There are also some new faces in this receiving corps to begin the season in Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett.  Hogan was a receiver for the Buffalo Bills in 2015.  The Patriots offered him a contract in 2016 so he took the offer and the Bills let him go as they did not match it.  He turned out to be a great addition to the roster as he finished third on the team in receiving yards with 680.  He gives the Patriots another great route runner with good hands and great speed to stretch the field.  The Bears traded Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett to the Patriots in the off season.  This originally looked like an odd move because they already had Gronkowski but it was also a great value so why not.  The Patriots looked like they were set to go back to their all too successful two tight end offense.  As it turned out, obtaining Bennett was in perfect timing because he filled in nicely for the injured Gronk during this season.  Bennett’s 55 receptions for 701 yards were second on the team.  He led the team in receiving touchdowns with seven.  He is a physical receiver who is also a great blocker.  His size and speed make him a mismatch for defenses much like fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski.  Running backs LeGarrette Blount, James White, and Dion Lewis make up the backfield of this offense.  Blount is the leading rusher with 1161 yards and 18 touchdowns on 299 rushes.  He averaged 3.9 yards per carry.  His bruising running style between the tackles and surprisingly shifty feet for his size (6’0″ 250 lbs) make him very tough to take down.  He clearly has a nose for the end zone as his 18 rushing touchdowns led the league.  The Patriots ranked seventh in the league in rushing yards per game.  People tend to think that this team is all about the pass but their run game checks out just as good.  James White and Dion Lewis make up the other half of the backfield by handling the pass catching duties.  The Patriots offense use their running backs extensively in the passing game by either going to them out of the backfield in the flats or by lining them up out wide as receivers.  This is particularly useful because it creates mismatches with linebackers having to line up on them out in space.  Brady will often exploit these mismatches and make defenses pay dearly.  White was the main back-receiver for Brady during the season due to Lewis missing just about all of 2016 with an injury.  As the starter, White made the most of it by being the fourth leading receiver with 551 yards.  He is second on the team with five receiving touchdowns and 60 receptions.  After going to White for a good part of the season, the Patriots have finally unleashed Lewis in the postseason.  He became the first player in NFL history to record a kick return, reception, and rush for a touchdown in a playoff game.  The scariest thing about this offense is that they can feature any one of these guy in any given game.  This multi-faceted offense is nearly impossible to guard when they’re at full strength but they’re also just as dangerous and unpredictable when undermanned.

Defense:  This part of the Patriots’ game always gets overlooked.  Yes, the offense is most definitely the area to marvel at when observing this team but what has quietly kept the ball rolling for them is their defense.  This has been especially true for the last two seasons.  This season, they rank eighth in total defense which is the highest they’ve been since they were fourth in 2007.  They allow the least amount of points per game at 15.6 and are the third ranked rushing defense by only allowing 88.6 yards per game.  The most interesting part about this defensive unit is the fact that it really doesn’t contain a bevy of star players.  An argument can be made for players like Malcolm Butler or Dont’a Hightower but those players weren’t necessarily stars previously in their own light.  They all play well as a unit.  This makes it difficult for opposing offenses to pick out soft spots to target.  Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is a great defensive mind in terms of schemes and strategy.  The unique part about this defense is that it isn’t geared toward any specific style of play.  Each week, it is remolded to counter the offense that they are going up against.  Whether it be the pass-heavy Saints or the run-heavy Cowboys, they will be well prepared for anything that is thrown at them.  Pro Bowl (2015) cornerback Malcolm Butler is a leader on this defense.  His four interceptions puts him three spots behind the league leader who has seven.  After stealing the show in New England’s 2014 Super Bowl win by intercepting Russell Wilson’s pass on the goal line to seal the game, Butler has become a standout corner in the league and has continued to impress.  Cornerback Logan Ryan leads the team with 92 total tackles including 74 solos.  He also has two picks.  Defensive backs Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty are just behind in second and third with 91 and 83 tackles respectively.  That is another thing that is underappreciated about the Patriots is the strength of their secondary.  They are a pretty solid group and may not get enough credit due to the fact that teams do rack up some yards against them because they’re passing all over the place in order to attempt to keep up with the Patriots’ offense.  Their passing defense is ranked twelfth in the league.  This may not be the best defense that this league has to offer but it is a well rounded group that should not be underestimated.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers return to the playoffs for the fifth time in eight years.  They have now made the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.  This is the fourth continuous season that the Steelers have began in the Wild Card.  Pittsburgh is one of those few teams that draw little surprise when their name appears in the playoff bracket.  Their long history of success on the gridiron has drawn a plethora of fans from around the nation.  The Steelers’ league leading six Super Bowl wins has brought pride and joy to the steel city.  Many legendary players and coaches have came through this franchise and will be remembered for their numerous accomplishments.  This includes Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Chuck Noll who won their first four Super Bowls in a six season span in the 1970’s and Pittsburgh Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Bill Cowher who won one of the more recent Super Bowls in 2005.  Soon after winning the title in 2005, Bill Cowher retired and gave way to current coach Mike Tomlin.  In just his second year in charge, Tomlin won Super Bowl XLIII in the 2008 season.  Now in his tenth season, Tomlin has been to the playoffs seven times and has never finished below .500.  His competitive nature and highly animated personality on and off the field has made Tomlin one of the most significant coaches in the league.  He has received criticism over the years for how he manages his players but in the end the results have always been positive.  Tomlin has carried on the Steelers’ traditional physical playing style on both sides of the ball but has seen his offense to taking things to the next level.  The Steelers have built one of the league’s most talented offenses that is more than up to par with the fast paced playing style of the modern era.  This team has had the experience to compete with any team but has now added the speed and energy necessary to go further than before.

Offense:  There has always been one static variable when it comes to offense in Pittsburgh and that is the ability to run the ball.  The physically punishing running backs that have dominated on this team like Jerome Bettis have given way to a dual threat greased lightning phenom in Le’Veon Bell.  The Steelers drafted Bell in the second round in 2013.  Since then, he’s been selected to two Pro Bowls and was AFC co-Offensive player of the Year in 2014.  He was most likely on his way to his second Pro Bowl last season but his season was cut short when a Bengals player hit him out of bounds causing him to injure his leg.  Since finishing seventeenth in total yards in his rookie season, he has finished in the top three in total yards in each season he has been healthy.  His average of almost five yards per carry has been in the top three for the last three seasons.  He finished fifth in the league in rushing yards with 1,268 yards.  For being 6’1″and 225 lbs, he is incredibly quick and athletic for a running back.  His patience and vision as a runner is truly one of a kind.  Not only can he carry the ball out of the backfield at an extremely high level, he is also one of the most prolific pass catching backs in the game.  He has great hands for a running back and also runs sharp routes as a receiver.  It is almost impossible to guard him in the open field.  His 616 receiving yards was good for 28th in the league.  With these stats considered, he acquired all of them without playing a quarter of this season.  The NFL suspended him for the first four games for violating the league’s substance policy.  Imagine if he were to have played in every game.  Speaking of impossible to guard, the Steelers have arguably the best receiver in the league on their roster in Antonio Brown.  He was a sixth round pick in the 2010 NFL draft.  Brown spent his first few seasons as a Steeler by mainly contributing as a special teams specialist at kick returner and was a part time receiver where he put up modest numbers nonetheless.  This all changed in 2013 when he turned it up multiple levels and became the second leading receiver in the league in terms of receptions and yardage.  From there he didn’t look back as he led the league in yardage and receptions in 2014 and has been in the top two ever since.  He is not a very large receiver with measurements of 5’10” and 180 lbs but he definitely makes up for it with his sharp route running, breakaway speed, and sure hands.  He is a five time Pro Bowl selection and was the NFL’s leader in receiving yards in 2014.  With that being said, there is no question that the lead man on this offense has always been quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  Since he was drafted out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004 in the first round, he has led the Steelers to two Super Bowl wins and has been selected to five Pro Bowls.  He won Offensive Rookie of the Year and won a Super Bowl in just his second season as a pro.  His massive stature (6’5″ 240 lbs) has made him easily one of the toughest quarterbacks to take down.  The ability to shake off defenders and make passes with opposing players hanging on him has made him a dangerous competitor.  He is also not one to suffer long absences from injuries.  It’s amazing how he can get back on the field in such little time after suffering an injury that would put most other quarterbacks on the sideline for good.  After finishing with the second most passing yards in 2014, Big Ben’s numbers have trailed off quite a bit.  He finished fourteenth in 2015 and seventeenth this season.  However, he did make up for it this year by throwing the sixth most touchdowns.  The Steelers have the third best offensive line in the league.  Roethlisberger has been hit the third least amount of times out of any quarterback this season.  After various injuries at inopportune times during the past few seasons, they are finally ready to go and have been playing their best late in this season.  The Steelers also have some other options on offense as well.  Eli Rogers and Jesse James have been unnoticed factors in the overall success.  Rogers is just a second year man out Louisville but he doesn’t really play like one.  He has gained some of Big Ben’s trust as the season has gone on and has made an impact.  He may not have the stats to back it up with 48 receptions, 594 yards, and three touchdowns but he contributes by being a semi-reliable third option.  Tight end Jesse James has come up big for the Steelers.  With the departure of Heath Miller, the offense was in dire need of a reliable go-to guy in the middle of the field.  James supplied that.  He is huge at 6’7″ and 261 lbs so he isn’t quite the guy you’d want lining up across from you.  He is also not a stat builder with his below average numbers but he has been the guy that Big Ben has went to when they were in need of a big play on third down.  He came up big in their divisional match up against the chiefs with eight receptions for 89 yards.  When playing at its highest level, this Steelers offense has the potential to be the best in the league.

Defense:  Pittsburgh’s physicality may be a little less noticeable on the offensive side of the ball but on defense they are one of the most brutal teams to go up against.  If there’s one thing for certain about this defense, it’s that they are not afraid to hit.  They do whatever it takes to win whether it’s mentally by getting in your head or physically by hitting you so hard that it knocks you out of the game.  Usually it’s a little bit of both.  They are ranked twelfth in total defense.  In terms of passing and rushing defense, they don’t specifically excel at either one.  Though, they are above average in each at thirteenth and sixteenth respectively.  However, they are ranked ninth in the league in total sacks.  This has been particularly useful in the postseason as they lead it with six combined sacks in their two games.  Their red zone defense has been very good this season where they rank inside the top five.  Lawrence Timmons is the leading tackler on this defense with his 114 total including 78 solos.  He also has two interceptions.  The real leader for this defense has to be linebacker Ryan Shazier.  Now in his third season, he has emerged as one of the top linebackers in the league.  His incredible speed, tackling ability, and eye for the ball has made him a tremendous asset to this Steelers defense.  He is the team’s second leading tackler, has five interceptions (two in the playoffs), three forced fumbles, and nine tackles for loss.  His pro career has been marred by a couple of injuries but when he’s been fully healthy it’s certainly been a sight to see.  At 38 years old, linebacker James Harrison is one of the oldest players in the NFL.  Yet, he’s still playing at a high level and is still a fine contributor to this defense.  In fact, he leads the team with five sacks and has an interception.  At 6’0″ 240 lbs, Harrison is incredibly hard to stop when he’s rushing off the edge with his low center of gravity.  He’s one of the scariest players to go up against in the league.  He was a huge factor in the Steelers’ divisional game against the Chiefs.  His two and a half sacks, forced fumble, and eleven tackles helped boost his team to victory.  He was also part of the controversial play when Chiefs’ left tackle Eric Fisher was called for a hold when he threw Harrison down during their two point conversion attempt to tie the game.  Harrison had beat Fisher around the edge so he had no choice but to hold him or Alex Smith would have been toast.  The quick and physical playing style that the Steelers utilize allows them to compete at the highest level no matter what team they go up against.

What To Expect:

1. I expect the play of Ben Roethlisberger to be a major factor in the outcome of this game.  Roethlisberger has struggled a bit on the road not only in the regular season but in the postseason as well.  It is imperative that he plays well in this match up in order for the Steelers to come out on top.  The Steelers have the third best offensive line in the league which has translated to Roethlisberger being hit the third least amount of times out of any quarterback.  Combine that with the fact that New England has a relatively weak pass rush being ranked sixteenth in sacks on the season which means Big Ben is going to have a decently clean pocket to operate from.  He should have the opportunities to make plays in this game it’s just whether or not he is able to execute in such a hostile environment.  The Patriots are third in the league in turnover differential so if Roethlisberger gets turnover happy then there are going to be major consequences.
2. I expect the Patriots to make a concerted effort to stop the Pittsburgh run game.  The Patriots have a knack for taking away their opponent’s strongest weapon so it won’t be surprising to see them stack it up a bit on defense this Sunday.  They have the third best rushing defense in the league.  However, there really hasn’t been a team that’s been able to completely stop Le’Veon Bell.  When these two teams played earlier this season, Bell was held to only 81 yards on 21 carries.  This stat is rather insignificant though because Roethlisberger was out for that one so there was not an aerial threat for the Patriots to worry about.  If the Pats can’t slow down Bell, they could be in serious trouble.
3. I expect the Steelers to have a tough time stopping Brady.  The Steelers’ passing defense is ranked sixteenth and in total sacks they are ranked ninth.  In order to fluster Brady and this Patriots offense, a team must play solid passing defense and be sound in the defensive secondary.  Being able to put pressure on Brady is also a key to beating them.  Teams that were able to effectively take down the Patriots was the Seahawks this season and most importantly the Broncos last season.  The Seahawks ended up ranked eighth in the league in passing defense this season and the Broncos were ranked first in passing defense last season.  Both teams were ranked in the top five in sacks when they beat the Patriots.
4. I expect the Antonio Brown/Malcolm Butler match up and the overall pass coverage against the Steelers’ receivers to be significant.  When the Steelers played the Patriots earlier this season, Brown went off for seven catches for 106 yards.  That’s a pretty good stat line but that 106 yards includes one of the catches going for 51 of those yards.  With the Patriots focusing their attention on Le’Veon Bell and Roethlisberger being under pressure in this road game at Gillette Stadium, Antonio Brown is going to have to step up and make big plays in every opportunity he gets.  Steelers’ tight end Jesse James had a big game in Kansas City with his eight catches for 89 yards and fellow tight Ladarius Green is returning from injury so I originally expected that to be a major factor in this game but the Patriots sport the fifth best defense against tight ends.  With that, I do still expect them to play a part in the Steelers’ game plan but taper the expectations for their production a bit more in this match up.
5. I expect the Steelers to have an easier time defending the middle of the field.  Last Sunday, Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce carved up the middle of the Steelers’ defense.  He had five receptions for 77 yards which should have ended up being easily over 100 yards and a couple more receptions due to the fact that he dropped some balls in key parts of the game.  Fortunately for the Steelers, star tight end Rob Gronkowski will not be participating in this game because of injury.  This will prove to be a key factor in this one because if Gronk was going to be on the field this Sunday then the Steelers would most likely suffer a far worse fate.
6. I expect the quarterback battle to be significant in this match up.  With the media raving about Le’Veon Bell’s dominant rushing performances leading up to this game, we can’t forget about the importance that quarterback play has had on this playoff season.  The final four teams remaining in the playoffs each have a great quarterback.  Each game has been decided by who ultimately had the better quarterback.  In those games, the stats that I found were significant leading up to them included third down conversion efficiency, yards per pass attempt, and turnover differential.  The Patriots have a distinct advantage in each of those categories but that doesn’t mean I’m completely counting the Steelers out.  It just means that Roethlisberger needs to come out and play to the best of his abilities to beat some odds.

 

Trends:  During the Belichick era, the Patriots are 6-4 in the conference championship overall and 4-1 when they have home field advantage.  The Patriots are 107-1 at home when leading at halftime since 2001.  Last time the Steelers met the Patriots in the AFC Championship was in the 2004 season where Belichick/Brady’s team beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh 41-27.  Belichick is 2-0 against the Steelers in the conference championship.  When Brady won his first Super Bowl in 2001, he beat the Steelers 20-17 in the AFC Championship.  Tomlin is 2-0 in AFC Championship appearances.  Roethlisberger and Brady both won Super Bowls in their second season.  The Steelers came in the playoffs from the Wild Card spot in 2005 and won the Super Bowl which was just a year after the Patriots knocked them out of the playoffs in the conference championship in 2004.

Featured Image Credit:  Associated Press/AP Photo/Steven Senne (930kbai.com)

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